You play to win the game.

Owners have messed and fussed the entire year (or years) to get to the playoffs. Now it is time to win it all. Every player on a playoff roster needs to be able to help the team in some way. Prospects may need to be dumped for players getting playing time. Don’t drop Bryce Harper if in a keeper league, but you need to make a decision on the your keepers for next season. Get a good idea of these keepers and the rest of the players on your team are then expendable.

Know your and your opponent’s weakness and strengths.

I have made the playoffs in one league and I will win the weekly categories of hitter walks and pitcher strikeouts. I haven’t lost these categories all season. My opponent should not be looking to pick up these categories. Instead they should be looking at Holds, Saves, HR and SB. These categories they have a chance to win.

To get an idea of where the battles are going to be fought, a couple of areas need to be looked at. First, I would look at the entire season rankings of stats, Roto style, and see where each team stands. Does the other team dominate Saves? Maybe compete in Wins then. Also, I would go back over the last few weeks and see how each team compares in various categories. Look to see if there was any significant changes to their team over that time. Did the team trade one of its closers for a power hitter?

Find the categories of contention and try to gain some advantage in them. Are you both close in steals and few extra could make the difference? Are they punting saves and a couple more SP/RP starters will help you win the K and Win categories?

Playing time is more important than talent.

The playoffs are not the time to go chasing after the next big thing being called up from the minors. With 7 of the 10 categories in basic H2H being counting stats, an owner needs players on the field. Also, make sure to check to see if any of your current player’s playing time has changed because of a player being called up.

If you have the win, don’t lose it.

Adjust as the week goes on by holding onto gains in certain stats. If an owner has a huge early lead in WHIP, Saves and ERA, remove the starters if the innings limit as been reached. Just coast with these values until the end of the week and concentrate on winning the batting stats. For example, feel free to drop a pitcher to make sure you have an extra catcher for off days.

Final games of the season.

Right at the end of the season, an owner can game the system with little recourse. If in a non-keeper league, dump pitchers once they have thrown their last start. Depending on what categories are needing help will determine which pitchers are picked up. If Wins and Ks are needed, pick up as many pitchers starting the final days. If you need to improve your ERA and WHIP, look for some good quality relievers to fill the vacated spots.

Today, I am looking at players coming back from the DL in the last few weeks of the season. Most injured players are just being shut down, so the pickings are slim for players returning.

Chase Headley (finger – 36% owned) – If an owner is needing some help at 3B, Headley is planning on playing the last couple weeks of the season. From team reports, he looks to be available around the 15th. He will help a team maintain or give a small boost to their average. He may not get much of a green light for stealing bases since his finger was fractured on a head first steal. Don’t expcet many, if any, home runs since he has hit only 4 this entire season.

Ryan Ludwick (back – 20% owned) – Ludwick should return from the DL on Wednesday. He is one of the few sources of home runs available on the DL waiver wire. If an an owner is needing help in the home run category, he may be able to provide 2 or 3 additional shots in the final few weeks.

Travis Hafner (foot – 15% owned) – Hafner is already in the middle of his rehab and plans on returning to the team in about a week. Like Ludwick, he is not a great source of home runs, but one of the few sources available. Also, this may be Hafner’s final season, so I could see the team give him plenty of playing time to accumulate RBIs and Runs.

Scott Baker (elbow – 20% owned) – Baker has never been a flashy pitcher, but he is safest bet for a starting pitcher coming off the DL. He has a near 4:1 K to BB ratio for the season. He will make a nice addition to a team needing a little starting pitching help, especially in H2H playoffs.

Johan Santana (shoulder – 8.3% owned) – Santana plans on throwing a few times this season, with the Mets’ game on the 14th being the goal. The start is going to have an inning limit, so the impact will be minimal. He may be a good pick up for an owner that is having one of their other pitchers shut down for the season and needs a fill in. I would be cautious of starting him on his debut game. I would like to see the speed of his fastball and what kind of control he displays. Some owners, especially in H2H playoffs, may not have that luxury of sitting him because they need the stats. I see him as the highest risk/reward option in the up coming weeks.

In fantasy baseball, owners are always looking to take advantage of the lucky and unlucky players by selling high and buying low. I wanted an easy, yet comprehensive stat to find players under or over performing their season’s stats. The final results led me to Luck. Read the rest of this entry »

Melky Cabrera is having nice rebound season in Kansas City. Currently he has 17 HR, 17 SB and a 0.302 AVG. It is the 27 year old’s best fantasy season of his career. His value in 2012 will be determined if he can maintain this production level Read the rest of this entry »

Here is a list of 2B owned in less than 10% of all ESPN leagues. They might be able to help a fantasy team in H2H playoffs or for a final push up the standings.

Jamey Carroll (7.3% owned) – Carroll has not had a good offensive season, especially in the power stats, 0 HR and 12 RBIs. The one item he can hlep a team with is his 0.291 AVG and 10 SB. If an owner is looking good in HRs and RBIs, they could add Carroll to help stabilize or help an AVG that is being dragged down by the likes of Kelly Johnson. Also, Carroll has the flexibility of being qualified at the SS position. Finally, he has gotten plenty of playing time (11 straight games), so he will be available to generate a few counting stats.

Robert Andino (7.3 % owned) – Andino has little value besides helping a team in a deep or AL only league to have a roster-able full time player. His SLG (0.323) is below his OBP (0.326) which is a warning sign to stay away. He has hit a total of 2 home runs this season and produced 21 RBIs. His 0.258 AVG is 17 points higher than his career average, so it is about maxed out. The only way I could see him as a useable player for an owner that is extremely desperate for counting stats. With his 3 eligible positions, he could be used as a flex option on other player’s days off.

Jose Altuve (7.1% owned) – Altuve has be a fairly serviceable 2B since playing his first game on July 20th. He currently has a 0.310 AVG, but not a lot more stats to be impressed with (1 HR and 3 SB in 152 PA). Like Carroll, he looks like a nice addition for a team to solidify their AVG, while not gaining a whole lot in counting stats. Also, he could be a nice bench player to fill in on off days.

Johnny Giavotella (6.1% owned) – Giavotella had the chance to be an OK option at 2B, but Ned Yost just can’t get over his love affair with Chris Getz. Giavotella, the Royals AAA player of the year, started playing all the time when first called up, but is now playing intermittently. When he does start, Getz is used as a late game replacement. He should be a decent option, but with Getz still in the picture, I would stay away from him for now.

The stats of the 8th hitter in the National League can be deceiving because of the pitcher hitting after them. Teams pitch around the 8th hitter. They are not allowed to make an out with the pitcher hitting, so are rarely given the green light to steal a base. I have gone through and looked at how the stats of the 8th hitter change when they are moved to another position in the lineup. Read the rest of this entry »

As usual on Mondays, I will look at a few players coming off the DL that are owned in less than 50% of ESPN’s leagues.

Rajai Davis (hamstring, 37% owned): In Toronto, center fielders Colby Rasmus (wrist, 69% owned) and Davis are both on the DL right now. They should come off the DL in a couple weeks.

Toronto will play Rasmus regularly if he is available, limiting Davis’ value. Besides not getting regular playing time, Davis is coming off a hamstring injury. Toronto may have him take it easy for the rest of the year, thereby limiting his steals. In the mean time, Mike McCoy is getting the starts in CF.

Justin Smoak (nose, 19%): Justin looks to take back the Mariner’s 1B position from Mike Carp’s when he returns in around 2 weeks. Smoak’s fantasy value is being driven down by his his 20.7% K%. The K%, to go along with his low BABIP (0.253), is putting his AVG (0.231) under attack. With a below average AVG and league average home run ability (10.2 HR/FB), he will not cut it as a MLB 1B. He doesn’t look like a league keeper and hopefully your team has found a better solution for 2011 at 1B.

J.D. Drew (shoulder, 2%): Drew has played the most games in RF for the Red Sox this season. He is currently in the minors rehabbing and looks to join the Red Sox on Thursday when the rosters expand. I have not been able to find Boston’s plans for him, but it looks like there is not an everyday position for him when he returns. Josh Reddick has 2 more home runs in 20 less PA than Drew. Also he has a 0.283 AVG vice Drew’s 0.219. If I have a DL position available, I may pick him up and see how the situation unravels once he returns. If he starts, keep him. If he is just a bench player, ditch him.

Freddy Garcia (finger, 18% owned) – Garcia is a nice play for a team desperate for a few extra Wins. Freddy comes off the DL tonight (Monday) against Baltimore. While his peripheral stats aren’t the greatest, he is a good enough pitcher to keep the Yankees in a game to pick up a few Wins.

Carlos Carrasco (elbow, 5% owned) – Carrasco looks to be coming back in a week or two. If the Indians are still in the playoff picture will determine if he pitches this season. If they are still breathing, he could be used for a couple of starts. If not, he will likely be shut down for the season.

Michael Morse is having his best season ever with 21 home runs and a 0.319 average. The 29 year old has filled in the void left at 1B when Adam Dunn signed with the White Sox this off season. I will look to see if his 2011 season can be duplicated in 2012.

Morse’s has hit as many home runs this season, 21, than in his previous 6 seasons. In his career, he has a 15.3% FR/FB ratio. This season it has increased a bit to 18.4%. In 2010, his average home run and fly ball distance was 300ft. In 2011 it has increased to 307ft.

Besides more fly balls becoming a home run, his OF FB% is up from 29.3% to 31.8%. Not much of a jump, but it is a jump. Morse’s home run increase seems sustainable into next season.

Batting average is the other stat that is making Michael valuable. His 0.319 AVG is 17 points higher then his career average of 0.302. The increase is not caused by more contact. His career K% is 21.1%. His 2011 value is 21.1%.

His BABIP this season is 0.367. This value seems high, but it isn’t that far off his career value is 0.355. Using slash12’s xBABIP formula, his 2011 xBABIP of 0.325 and his career xBABIP would be 0.326. Both of these values are below the actual values, but are still respectable. In 2010, he had a 0.330 BABIP and a 0.289 AVG to go with it.

For 2012, I could see his home run total between 20 and 30 and a 0.270 to 0.320 AVG. With those numbers, he should be drafted and started in all leagues. The stats are not ideal for a fantasy 1B in a shallow league, but Morse should be qualified in the OF in most leagues (27 LF starts this season). He will be a decent OF and can flex to 1B when an injury occurs or a player has a day off.

Michael Morse looks like he can keep up the 2011 production into 2012, with the possible exception of a drop in AVG. He adds great roster flexibility since he is qualified at 1B and OF. There is no reason to avoid him on draft day next year.

What to expect from Kelly Johnson in Toronto – Kelly has been a disappointment this season, mainly for his inability to make contact (27.4 K% vice a career 20.9 K%) and get a hit (0.257 BABIP vice a career 0.309 BABIP). He has been a nice source of home runs (18) and stolen bases (13) though.

Johnson’s home run ability should not take much of a hit since the LHH park factor for home runs is the same for each park (114). In Toronto, the park factors for singles, doubles and triples are all less than they were in Arizona. Rogers Centre will put another dent in Johnson already beat up season AVG.

I am not sure of Toronto’s plan for where he bats in the lineup so his value could be effected on where he finally ends up. He should see some more Runs + RBIs since Toronto’s offense averages 0.3 R/G more than Arizona’s offense. Finally in Toronto, he should be in the field everyday (which wasn’t happening recently in Arizona).

I see Johnson’s Runs and RBI’s up, HRs staying the same, while his AVG might even take more of hit because of the trade.

What to expect from Aaron Hill in Arizona – Hill, like Johnson, has had a disappointing 2011 season. A 0.225 AVG and 6 HRs are a let down from the 0.286 AVG and 36 HRs from just 2 years ago.

Looking at the stadium numbers, Hill’s home run potential will go down as he goes from a RHH HR PF of 116 in Toronto to 102 in Arizona. While his HR rate looks to take a hit, he should get a boost in his AVG because of the higher PF for singles, doubles and triples.

The chances for RBI’s and Runs will go down since Arizona doesn’t score as many runs as the Toronto offense.

Hill looks like he should get a chance to turn it around in Arizona, but the home park and his teammates look to limit his upside.

What to expect to from John McDonald in Arizona – McDonald’s value jumped the most from this trade. He looks to be the everyday SS in Arizona since Stephen Drew is out for the season. He will occur the same downgrades that Hill has because of the stadium and surrounding teammates. While he is not an offensive force, he should be getting playing time everyday and help an owner in a deep or NL only league with some counting stats.

Thanks to statcorner.com for the Park Factors

The following list is of the 2B that have had the largest changes in % owned at ESPN and the reasons behind the changes.

Risers

Darwin Barney (+25.1%) – I can not put a finger on one particular reason for the sudden jump in his ownership, but here are several ideas.

Read the rest of this entry »