I have profiled several SP/RP qualified relievers so far this season (here and here and here) with David Hernandez currently being the best out of the bunch. Today I am going to dig a little deeper and look at some SP/RP relievers on the fringe of being owned.

Alfredo Aceves (0.6% owned ESPN) – On the surface, Aceves looks to have pitched OK as a reliever this season with 7 Holds, 2.64 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. These stats are all smoke and mirrors. The rate stats are being driven by a low BABIP of 0.188. His FIP (4.72) and xFIP (4.60) are much higher.

The one item he has been able to improve has a reliever is his walks. As a starter his walk rate is 5.57 BB/9, but as a reliever it is down to 2.64 BB/9.

I would not count on him padding your rate stats. I could see him being a decent source of counting stats like Holds (Boston should have plenty of leads) or Wins.

Daniel McCutchen (0.1% owned ESPN) – Like Aceves, McCutchen has some nice stats as a reliever, a 3-1 record, 8 Holds, a 1.20 WHIP and a 2.19 ERA. His low ERA is being driven down by a low BABIP (0.265) and HR/FB (6.3%). McCutchen has not been much of a strikeout pitcher in his time in the majors (4.9 K/9) and has walked a few too many batters (3.1 BB/9). All these stats lead to a FIP (3.87), xFIP (4.34) and SIERA (4.13) that are each about twice his ERA.

The only reason I see to own him is if an owner is in desperate need of Holds.

Aaron Laffey (0.0% owned ESPN) – Another player with a nice and pretty ERA (2.39). His ERA is not being suppessed by a super low BABIP (0.280) or HR/FB (13.9%). Instead, he has some how stranded 91.3% of the base runners allowed this season. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but his FIP (4.61), xFIP (4.00) and SIERA (3.83) are all a bit higher than his ERA. With a K/BB of 1.75, he doesn’t provide much promise.

Also, he is generally not even used as a setup man, so his chances of generating Holds is at a minimum.

Final thoughts

All 3 of these pitchers have an ERA that is not sustainable and provide little in the way of Ks. If you are looking for some SP/RP qualified pitchers, I would look for one mention in one of my previous articles.

Yesterday, the Royals Wilson Betemit was traded to the Tigers for 2 low level/talent minor league prospects. Here is a quick look at the fantasy implications of the trade.

Wilson Betemit (8% owned ESPN) – Betemit looks to be the Tigers new everyday 3B taking over for Brandon Inge and Don Kelly. Wilson is an improvement for the Tigers at 3B and has the chance to be a decent fantasy 3B.

Looking at the past 2 seasons for 3B with over 500 PA, Wilson’s OPS (0.830) ranks 7th in the majors. The following players were right above and below him in the rankings, Evan Longoria, David Wright, Michael Young and Aramis Ramirez. OPS is not a perfect stat to state a fantasy player’s value, but it does show how well he has hit recently. Betemit’s fantasy value comes from his ability to hit for average and generate some HR power. He is not a stolen base threat at all.

Betemit has been hitting like an elite 3B, but not getting many plate appearances in KC. I could see him be a 2nd half surprise for the owner that takes a chance on him. He should be owned in all leagues right now. With the lack of 3B talent available, he will be valuable to some team.

Brandon Inge (4% owned ESPN) – Inge is effectively worthless right now. He was optioned to AAA by the Tigers. Short of an injury or another team taking a chance on him, I don’t see a reason to hold him in any league.

Royals IF situation – What a mess for fantasy owners. Betemit was the backup 2B and 3B before the trade. Right now the Royals should/could make some changes at 3B and 2B.

The 3B for the Royals, rookie Mike Moustakas, is 0 for his last 22. He has a triple slash line of 0.190/0.252/0.241 for the season (the type of line that Inge lost his 3B job for having). With Betemit gone, Mike Aviles, who was recently recalled from AAA, will be his replacement. Aviles is a streaky hitter. He walks little and relies heavily on the BABIP fairy for his results. He does have some power and may see some playing time if Moustakas continues to struggle.

Aviles will also be the backup for the 2B, Chris Getz. Getz is actually an OK SB fantasy contributor with 17. The rest of his game is declining (not 1 XBH in his last 35 hits) and the Royals may be looking at bringing up the PCL’s June Player of the Month, Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella currently has a triple slash line of 0.337/0.392/0.483 with 9 SB and 9 HRs in 432 PA in AAA. The word from some sources in KC was that Betemit was moved so Giavotella could be added to the 40 man roster.

Right now it is going to a little tough to figure out what the Royals are going to do with the lack of offensive production from their 2B and 3B. I would bet that they stay with the status quo and keep Moustakas and Getz in the lineup no matter how bad they struggle.

Jeff Keppinger was traded to San Francisco for 2 pitchers yesterday. The trade opened up a position for Jose Alture at 2B in Houston. The following is a look at how the move will effect each player’s fantasy value.

Jeff Keppinger (5% owned in ESPN) – Keppinger was having an OK season with the Astros so far this season. The 31 year old’s main fantasy value was coming from a 0.307 AVG. He has hit for little power 4 HRs and had 0 SB so far this season.

With the Astros, Keppinger generally hit in the 2nd, 3rd or 5th position in the lineup which have better chances of creating RBIs and Runs. He has not started for SF yet (he is not in Wednesday’s lineup, so he may not actually be a regular starter for the team), but he is not likely to get placed in such nice counting stat generating position in their lineup.

Another item to take into account is that the SF offense as a whole has performed worse (3.7 R/G) than Houston’s offense (3.9 R/G) this season.

Even though Keppinger’s ownership rate has almost doubled since the trade, it is likely that his production will be less than it was with Houston. I would not pick him up in any league that he wasn’t already owned in. With possible questions surrounding his playing time, I may look at replacing him with his replacement in Houston.

Jose Altuve (0% owned – ESPN) – Altuve gets the chance to take over as the everyday 2B for the Astros. The 21 year old has some promising minor league numbers with a triple slash line of 0.327/0.386/0.481. He has shown a little power with 15 HRs last season and 10 so far this season.

His main contribution for fantasy owners is ability to attempt SBs with 60 attempts in 2010. He was successful 42 times (70% success rate). So far this season in the minors, he is 24 for 38 or a 63% success rate. Both of those rates are below the break even point of 75% at the major league level. He will probably not get the green light in the majors with only a 63% success rate. With the Astros out of the race this year, I could see them give him the green light for the rest of the season to see how he can perform against MLB talent to get a success rate determined.

Another item going for him is that the Astros have him batting in the number 2 spot in their lineup. He could be a decent source of runs if he is able to stay near the top of the lineup.

Jose should be owned in all NL only leagues because he is a player that should be getting regular playtiming for a while. He may also be an option in deeper leagues if an owner is in need of 2B help.

Today I will look at a few players on the DL owned in less than 60% of all leagues.

Luke Scott (22% ESPN, 18% Yahoo) and Vladimir Guerrero (44% ESPN, 57% Yahoo) – The DH situation in Baltimore will be in flux for the next couple weeks. First, Luke Scott is to come off the DL tomorrow, and with Vlad on the DL, he looks to move into Baltimore’s DH spot. Luke has had mixed results in 2011. He is hitting HRs (and getting the Runs and RBIs that go with them) with 9 so far in just over 233 PA. The problem is that in those 233 PA he has hit only 0.233 and continues to have no speed (11 career SB). He does give an owner the flexibility of being qualified at 1B and OF which Vlad does not. He looks to be a nice pick up for the next couple weeks since he is to be the everyday DH.

The problem is that he will probably lose his DH spot once Vlad returns and will move into a LF platoon with Pie and Reimold. While Vlad has not hit as many home runs (7) as Scott so far this season, his 0.279 AVG is more appealing. Scott looks to be a nice replacement for Vlad owners, but he doesn’t look to have a permanent place in the Orioles lineup.

John Danks (33% ESPN, 46% Yahoo) – Danks is scheduled to return from DL on Wednesday to make his first start since Jun 25. He was having an OK season before he went on the DL. His 3-8 record is not great (it was 0-8 at one point), but he has been pitching a better than it shows. He has a 4.21 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and a 2.32 K/BB. Those stats are decent enough for a starter in deep or AL only leagues.

Stephen Strasburg (1% ESPN, 13% Yahoo) – Recent reports from the Nationals state that Strasburg may be back in September for a few starts. He may be a nice replacement for a pitcher that may be shutdown late in the season. If you have room on the DL, it might be a good time to pick him up and see if he will pitch in the majors this season.

Brett Anderson (36% ESPN, 48% Yahoo) – Stick a fork in him and send him to the WW. TJS has him out for this season and I see very little reason to have him as a keeper for next season. An owner might as well keep a player that plans to start the season off the DL.

As the season progresses, teams will be looking to sit rookie pitchers to prevent injuries. Here is a look at the work loads of previous rookie pitchers and what to expect from the current crop of good rookie pitchers.

Teams have always worried about injuring the arms of young pitchers and this worry has expanded after the Verducci Effect was published. Some studies have shown the negative effects of over throwing young pitchers to be minimal, but that has not stopped teams from shutting down their young arms, especially rookies.

Here is a list of the top 3 rookie pitchers (removed K-Dice from 2007 data because he was not a real rookie) in IP from each of the past 4 completed seasons:

The average number of IP from these top throwing rookies is 178 IP with the top value being 193 IP (Nick Blackburn in 2008). The average number of starts is 30 with the highest number being 33 (also Nick Blackburn). Using these numbers as a general rule, I would use 180 IP and 30 GS as a top limit for projecting GS and IP for rookie pitchers this season.

Here is a look at a few of the top rookie pitchers this season and a projected number of GS for the rest of the season:

The GS (ROS) is based on using subtracting 30 GS from the number of GS they have so far this season. GS (ROS based on IP) is found by taking 180 IP subtracting the IP pitched so far and then dividing by the pitcher’s IP/GS.

Owners of these players may need to look at finding possible substitutes for these pitchers once they are shut down. If the league is not a keeper league, just drop the player when the team is done starting them and find a starter that will be facing expanded/water downed September rosters.

Owners of these pitchers in keeper leagues, may need to trade them off before the deadline if their team looks to have a chance of winning. This is especially true in H2H keeper leagues. One or more of these rookie pitchers may have helped the owner get to the playoffs. If the rookie is not available in the playoffs, the owner only has himself to blame for not trading him off earlier for a pitcher that may go the entire season.

The other day 4 of us writers did a draft of players owned in less than 10% of all ESPN leagues. We drafted a C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP and here were the results:

Besides the entire draft results, here is a quick explanation of my 6 picks

John Buck (C)– The choice of Buck was pretty easy. He is a catcher with home run ability. This season so far he has hit 8 HRs in 291 PA with the Marlins and looks to still get plenty more PA. These numbers are just a bit below his career average where he has averaged 1 home run for every 30 PA. His average and SB are non-existent, but what is to be expected from a catcher owned in less than 10% of all leagues. I will gladdly take the home runs, especially from a catcher.

Jonny Gomes (OF) – I figured that I may attempt at locking up home runs with Gomes to go along with Buck. He looks to be on pace for 20 home runs and maybe even get 10 SB. His average is a drag, but he generally gets consistent playing time so he will have chances to accumulate Runs and RBIs to go along with the HRs.

Aaron Crow (RP)– I took the Royals All-Star selection in the hope that Soria will become either injured or traded. Crow then looks to be in line to move into the closer role where he will begin picking up saves. There are other relievers with better rate stats, but I am taking a chance on saves with this pick.

Scott Sizemore (MI)– This is probably the safest move I took. Usually, I would aim for a player that excels at one area, but with Scott he is just an all around below average player. He will get at bats and not destroy or will any category. Boring.

Casey Blake (CI) – I need a CI and the pickings were slim. I am pretty much hoping that he can get back to hitting some home runs. Also, he could put up some OK counting stats (Runs and RBIs).

Brandon McCarthy (SP) – I waited on SP which seemed like the deepest category. I about went with Danny Duffy, but decided against double homer-ism after drafting Crow and instead went with McCarthy. I will take the 3.5 K/BB and hope the A’s offense can show up once or twice during the rest of the season.

This past weekend, two pitchers for the A’s, Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy, returned to the team after stints on the DL. Here is a look at how each pitcher performed and what to expect from them over the rest of the season.

Rich Harden (9.4% ESPN, 11% Yahoo) – Rich made his 2011 debut on Saturday by striking out 6 and not walking anyone in 6 IP.

Read the rest of this entry »

Recently, I did a little work looking at the owned % and the likely hood that a player would be starting on a fantasy depending on the league size. Using Yahoo ownership rates, 90% ownership is probably the starting level for 10 team leagues, 85% for 12 team leagues and 10% for 20 team leagues. Originally, I figured I could just go down the ownerships of each position and get the players on the edge, but multiple positions eligibilities caused some confusion, especially for IF positions like 2B, SS and 3B. The following is the 2B who rank around the cutoff value for 12 team leagues, 85% and below.

The 4 players I will be looking at today are Placido Polanco, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Roberts and Danny Espinosa. Here are their ownership rates and stats so far this year:

After looking at the these 4, here is the order I would prefer to own/play them:

1. Danny Espinosa: He has the combination of speed (9 SB) and power (15 HR) that the others don’t have. His average is not ideal, but it is expected considering his BABIP (0.264) and K% (25%). It would be nice to see him make some more contact, but his combination of speed and power from 2B is tough to find.

2. Ryan Roberts: The 30 year old is having a career season and I would ride to the end of it. He is already at career highs in SB and HR only half way through the season. His triple line slash of 0.254/0.341/.439 isn’t far this season are that his preseason ZIPS projection of 0.251/0.3290.400. Ryan was finally given the opportunity to play every day and he is taking full advantage of it.

3. Kelly Johnson: He is performing like Danny Espinosa lite. Power and speed, but can’t hit for average at all. His BABIP has risen from 0.227 at the end of March to 0.267, which has helped his AVG some. The main reason for the low AVG is that every third at bat he is striking out. If/once he begins to make contact on a more regular basis, he will instantly become more valuable.

4. Placido Polanco: He has hit for good AVG, but that is about it. He is showing little speed (5 SB) and less power (3 HR). This is a case where the abilities he has, doesn’t translate to fantasy baseball. If you need help with AVG and have plenty of speed and power, he may be worth acquiring.

As a whole, each of these 2B can make decent contributions to a fantasy team. Out of these 4 though, I will take Espinosa, which currently has the lowest ownership rate.

Brandon Webb (shoulder): Brandon made his 4th AA rehab start of the season last Friday and it wasn’t good:

2/3 an inning, 4 ER, 4 hits, 1 K, 1 BB.

The rest of his AA starts haven’t been much better.

4 games, 9.75 ERA, 6 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 over 12 innings.

I still think there some possible value left in Brandon and he may be worth keeping in a DL spot for a while longer. First, his ERA is bloated from a 0.444 BABIP and 58% LOB%. Currently his FIP is at 4.75, while not great, it is half of his ERA. Second, his fastball speed has been between 85 to 87 MPH in his starts so far. This value may seem low, but his average speed was around 88 MPH during his better MLB seasons. While the speed is down a bit, it is not that far off his previous values.

There is no reason to totally give on him over 12 innings, but I would be keeping track of his progress and see if he can begin to put it together.

Phil Hughes (shoulder): Phil’s ownership rate has crept up as he is getting closer to coming off the DL. In his first rehab start his fastball speed topped out at 95MPH. In his second start, it was a little slower topping out at 93 MPH and was in the range of 91 to 93 MPH. Even though he threw a little slower the second time out, his fastball speed is up ~3 MPH from his starts earlier this season. His fastball seems effective since he has gotten 10 minor leaguers to strike out in 7.2 IP.

He should be continue to be held in a DL spot and his minor league outings monitored.

Johan Santana (shoulder): It is looking more and more likely that Johan will pitch just a few starts, if at all, in 2011. His return time line has been moved back and with the Mets out of contention, there is no real reason to rush him back.

Bartolo Colon (hamstring): Tonight (Monday), Bartolo will pitch a simulated game to see how healed his hamstring is right now. After the outing, the Yankees will then have a better idea of a return timeline.

Jonathan Broxton (shoulder): Jonathan was supposed to join the Dodgers soon, but he felt stiffness in his shoulder on Saturday. It looks like his return will be put on hold. He was supposed to return to the Dodger’s closer role, but not for now.

Over a month ago, I looked at relievers that have SP qualification. For leagues that have daily transactions, these pitchers can fit in nicely for real starting pitchers on their off days. They are must haves in leagues that count holds. Also, they may vulture a save or win here and there and help pad your rate stats. Today, I am going to look at a few more of these pitchers.

Mike Stutes, Phi – In late April, Stutes joined the Phillies and was mainly used in low leverage situations. As the Phillies pen has gone through several changes, he has moved into the role as one of the main setup men.

The main reason for his climb has been his ability to strike more than 1 batter per IP (9.13 K/9). The high number of K’s,low BABIP (0.200) and low HR/FB (6.7 HR/FB) has lead to his ERA of 2.00. His FIP (3.93) and xFIP (4.27) are both about twice his ERA and the increase is mainly do to his BB/9 of 5.3.

Stutes seems like a nice option for holds and a vulture and win now and then (3 in the last 4 games he has appeared in), but his ERA does not look sustainable at this low level.

Tony Watson, Pit – Since pitching his first MLB game on Jun 8, Watson has been lights out for the Pirates with an ERA of 0.94. Also he is almost striking out 1 batter per inning (8.4 K/9). This strikeout rate may not be sustainable since he only averaged 7.4 K/9 in minors.

Besides the higher than normal K numbers, he is walking over 4.5 batters per nine innings. Also, he has a low BABIP (0.200) and HR/FB rate (0.0). These values can be seen with his his FIP (2.64) and xFIP (3.70) being multiple times higher than his ERA.

He is currently being used in late inning situations so there will be chances for Holds and vulture wins as the season goes on. Watson seems to be a nice option for SP/RP, but his ERA and K/9 will regress a bit.

Sam LeCure, Cin – After 4 games in April as a starter, LeCure has been moved to the pen where his results look like he has excelled. As a starter his ERA was 4.79, but as a reliever it is 0.56. Don’t let these numbers fool you. His K/9 and BB/9 as a starter (8.27, 2.18) were better than those as a reliever (7.88, 2.25). As a reliever he has been helped out with a lower BABIP (0.158 vs 0.268) and HR/FB rate (6.3% vs 18.2%).

As a whole though, LeCure seems to be a fairly servicable reliever with a K/BB over 3.5 and an ERA that should be near the 3.50 range. One area currently that doesn’t bode well for him is that he doesn’t look to be a designated setup men, so the number of holds he gets may be limited.

Hisanori Takahashi, LAA – At the beginning of the season, I looked at Takahashi as a SP/RP to target this season. He started the season performing horribly (6.59 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 4.6 BB/9). Since May 7th, he has seemed to turn the season around (1.33 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9). I could understand why some owners dumped him, but it may be time to look at possibly picking him up again.