A while ago, I ranked 2B according to their possible 2012 return using the Bill James Projections. There was some discussion in the comments on how detrimental it is to have a low AVG and SB number with a power hitter. I have decided to rank some 2B ‘roto style’ to help show how players that only have value in RBIs, Runs and HRs can be a drag on a team.
On Monday, I looked at which players showed an increase in their batted ball distances from 2010 to 2011. Not all increases can be seen in the year to year data. Some changes begin to occur during the season like with Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson in the past couple of years. Here is a look at some players that may be turning their game around for the better
Many players show a power increase in the form of higher HRs, SLG and ISO from one season to the next. Today, I am using MLB batted ball data to see which players showed an actual increase in home run and fly distances from 2010 to 2011. This data helps show if there was an underlying talent change from 2010 to 2011.
To get the values, I used batted ball data that MLB provides. It is the data seen on spray charts during games and on their website. The data is not perfect. It is not close to perfect. Right now, it is the best publicly available batted ball data.
If you want to look at the data for any player or over any time frame, you can goto:
http://www.baseballheatmaps.com/graph/
User: fangraphs
PW: Dave (capital D)
Click on: Angle and Distance of a Hitter’s Batted Balls
Enter in the player and parameters.
First, I am looking at player projections that could be off because of a player playing through an injury. For example, in 2010 Ben Zobrist played through a back injury which hurt his projections for 2011. Do you know of any player that played through an injury in the past few years, especially last year? I want to see if, and how much, projections are off for these players.
Second, ask away with your fantasy baseball questions.
Ike Davis started the 2011 season off with 7 HRs and a 0.302 AVG in 36 games. Then he broke his ankle thereby ending his season. The big question in 2012 is: Can he continue to hit the same after the injury as he did before it?
After being drafted in the first round by the Mets in 2008, Ike did not show much power. His OBP and SLG were exactly the same his first year in the minors (0.326). Since then, his power has slowly increased. In 2010 he hit 19 HR in just over 600 PAs.
Yesterday, the Bill James’s Projections were added to all the player pages here at Fangraphs. Bill James’s numbers seem to be on the optimistic side and are probably not regressed as much as other projection systems. It is all we have to work with for now though. With the projection numbers, I ranked the players according to their value among other 2B using Zach Sander’s formula for finding fantasy above replacement values.
Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano
Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley
Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla
Tier 3 (Part 2)
Howie Kendrick
Kelly Johnson
Non Keepers
Neil Walker
Dustin Ackley
Jason Kipnis
Danny Espinosa (link)
Brian Roberts – Brian has probably the highest up and downside of any 2B going into the 2012 season. He missed most of 2011 with a concussion. If he is able to play full time and at full strength, he could put up 10+ HR and 25 SB. Also, he could barely play at all in 2012 (see Justin Morneau). There is no way he can be counted on for any production in 2012, so he should not be kept. I love him as a buy low candidate on draft/auction day though.
All keeper leagues have their own unique rules. Over the next few weeks, I will look over a few different formats to show some ways to take advantage of different systems. Here are the rules for one type of league. They are close to the rules for a couple of leagues I am in:
Each team is allowed up to a certain number of keepers (I will use 9 as an example). For each keeper, the highest round draft pick will be lost. For example, if you keep 6 players, you will not draft until the 7th round, losing picks in rounds 1 to 6. A player can be kept forever.
Tier 1
Dustin Pedroia
Ian Kinsler
Robinson Cano
Tier 2
Michael Young
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Chase Utley
Tier 3 (Part 1)
Michael Cuddyer
Ben Zobrist
Dan Uggla
Tier 3 (Part 2)
Howie Kendrick
Kelly Johnson
Non Keepers
Danny Espinosa (link)
I have already gone over the top 12 2B keepers for 2012. Here is a look at why several players were not included.
With Melky Cabrera being trade from the Royals to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez, Lorenzo Cain became the everyday center fielder for the Royals. His fantasy value has skyrocketed with this move.
Lorenzo was traded to the Royals from the Brewers as part of the Zack Greinke trade. With the 2010 Brewers, he played in 43 games hitting .306 with 1 HR and 7 SBs. Besides, 6 games played with the Royals at the end of the season as a August call up, he has spent the rest of his career in the minors.
