After generating quite a bit of hype this preseason with the addition of Prince Fielder, Detroit looked to have a fairly potent offense this year. That offense has not materialized yet. Here are some of my thoughts on their struggling lineup.
Omar Infante is possibly having the most productive season of his career. He is currently hitting 0.321/0.352/0.532 with 6 HRs. While it may be tough for him to hit 16 HRs like he did in 2004, he is seeing a nice power spike. Have any of his core attributes changed that will help keep this break out sustainable?
Eric Hosmer has been a huge disappointment this season with a 0.174/0.243/0.316 slash line. Most of his problems stem from a 0.169 BABIP. I am going to look to see if there are any under lying problems for the drop and any possible reasons for optimism.
As I stated previously, Eric has a BABIP of 0.169. It is the lowest value of all hitters with at least 150 PA. In 2011, he was 50th out of 145 qualified hitters with a 0.314 BABIP.
The folks at Baseball Think Factory are kind enough to supply Fangraphs with projected ZiPS values for each player covering the rest of the season. These values take the player’s preseason projection and how they have produced so far in 2012 and then estimate the player’s stats for the rest of the season.
I used Zach Sander’s formula to rank only 2B for the rest of the season.using z-scores. Here are the rest of season values for 2B order by their current z-score and some thoughts on the rankings:
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Last season, I drank the Adam Dunn Kool-Aid. He was coming over from the the National League. He would likely be in the lineup everyday, even if hurt, with the option of the D.H in the AL. What could go wrong? Pretty much everything. It couldn’t happen again I figured, so this season I drank the Albert Pujols flavored Kool-Aid. With him getting up in the years, he would be able to get a rest from fielding, DH a bit, continue hitting, win the MVP, and most importantly, lead my fantasy team to a title. Yea … that is not happening.
Every season starts with stories of how pitchers are losing fastball velocity. While pitchers that lose velocity fill the headlines, a few actually see a velocity spike. A velocity spike is great for a pitcher because it usually means better performance and less time on the DL during that season.
The Royals have called up Johnny Giavotella to the MLB club. The word out of KC right now is that he will join the team and Jonathan Sanchez will be placed on the DL. Besides Giavotella, the Royals have Chris Getz, Yuniesky Betancourt (on DL) and Irving Falu that have or can play 2B. Here is a quick look at each candidate and my take on the entire situation.
Johnny Giavotella – The 24-year-old Giavotella was initially pencilled in as the starting 2B for the Royals to start the season back in Febuary. The Royals decided to keep Chris Getz and re-sign Yuniesky Betanourt, so off to AAA went Giavotella.
In 31 games at AAA this season, he has hit a triple slash line of 0.331/0.408/0.504 with 5 HRs and 1 SB. He has shown that he can hit the ball in AAA and deserves a shot to see if he can cut it in the majors. Projection systems have him at just under 10 HRs and just over 10 SBs with an ~0.275 AVG. Not great, but not horrible in deep or AL-only leagues.
Chris Getz – Chris is having a nice breakout/career season at age 28. His triple slash line of 0.288/0.338/0.424 are all career highs. His 2012 ISO (0.136) is 4 times higher than his 2011 value (0.032). The change in performance can be linked back to a change in his batting stance.
Irving Falu – Falu is no prospect and his current role on the team is to be Alcides Escobar’s backup at SS in case Escobar is injured. If the 29-year-old has to see full time playing time, people can expect and OK AVG (~0.250) and double digit steals. There is no reason to own him unless Escobar goes to the DL.
Yuniesky Betancourt – Yuni was having an OK season for him when he finally went on the DL with an ankle injury. He was trying to play through the injury since the beginning of the season. When he went on the DL he had a triple slash line up 0.280/0.333/0.420. The OBP and SLG would be career highs if he is able to maintain them.
He started the season as the everyday 2B and backup SS. Once the ankle injury became more pronounced, Getz took over at 2B and Betancourt “rode the pine for nine”. He was placed on the DL on May 3rd so he can come off the DL after the 18th.
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So what does this all mean? The situation is a cluster …. mess. Getz, a LHH, and Giavotella, a RHH, look to be in a platoon situation at 2B for the next week or so. Platoon situations are a mess for fantasy owners, especially those with weekly lineup changes. In a few days, Betancourt looks to return, so one of the Royals management’s favorite players will be back taking away playing time from the other two. I see Giavotella headed back to AAA and Getz on the bench most days. When the final answer to the Royals 2B situation is Betancourt, I would just stay away from any of the players involved.
Today I am going to look at a 3 players on the DL that may be able available in a league and should be returning to the field soon. The players could be added to a regular or DL spot.
Ownership rates are ESPN and then Yahoo.
Nolan Reimold (29%, 35%) – Usually, I don’t look at players with this high of an ownership rate because they are just not available in active and/or deep leagues. I am just amazed at how much he is being dropped. He has experienced a 61% point drop in his ownership rate at ESPN (The fact that over 60% of the leagues at ESPN are this active really surprises me).
As of yesterday, two sources of saves no longer exist. Mariano Rivera was lost for the season after tearing his ACL and Carlos Marmol was releived of his closing duties. Here is a quick look at their possible replacements as the team’s closer.
New York Yankees Closer
The Yankees have two decent choices for a closer, David Robertson and Rafael Soriano. Last night Joe Girardi said that Robertson would close that night’s game if needed. This statement would just move Robertson from the 8th inning guy, to the closer.
On Monday, I looked at two 2B, Danny Espinosa and Ryan Roberts, who are being dropped the most in ESPN leagues. Today, I am going to look at the next most dropped 2B, Jemile Weeks and Neil Walker.
(Values after name are ESPN ownership %, % point drop in ESPN ownership and Yahoo ownership %)
Jemile Weeks (68%, -21%, 61%) – Most of Jemile’s drop can be directly attributed to his sub-0.200 AVG. Projection systems had his AVG projected to be between 0.266 (Steamer) and 0.296 (Marcel). The drop in AVG is not from an increase K% which is almost identical to his career rate of 14%.
