One pitcher trait which is consistently desired through all the various fantasy formats is health. While hitters get hurt also, pitcher injuries can really put a damper on a fantasy team because pitchers are lost for longer periods of time. By knowing which pitchers are more at risk can help a fantasy owner make better decisions on draft/auction day.
Bill Petti and I have been looking at pitches thrown at the edge of the strike zone over the last few days. Pitchers who throw a higher percentage of pitches on the edge perform better than those pitchers who throw a lower percentage. Edge% is not going to change the core traits of pitcher talent, high strike outs and low walks, but it is a nice tool to help differentiate between two similar pitchers.
After 15 rounds in Rotographs’s 12-team ridiculously early draft, 13 second basemen have been drafted. A few surprises have popped up, but again in 2013, the 2B position has it talent spread out pretty evenly.
Note: Aaron Hill was not included when the article first ran. He has been now included.
To begin with, here are the Oliver Projections for the 2B qualified players who have been drafted from rounds 1 to 15:
| Draft Position | Name | PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 7 | Robinson Cano | 686 | 623 | 104 | 30 | 97 | 5 | 3 | .303 | .362 | .525 |
| 30 | Dustin Pedroia | 609 | 538 | 90 | 16 | 64 | 17 | 6 | .287 | .358 | .448 |
| 36 | Ian Kinsler | 662 | 582 | 110 | 22 | 64 | 20 | 6 | .258 | .341 | .441 |
| 49 | Ben Zobrist | 658 | 560 | 82 | 17 | 86 | 17 | 6 | .261 | .357 | .435 |
| 56 | Jason Kipnis | 536 | 480 | 69 | 13 | 58 | 15 | 4 | .254 | .324 | .395 |
| 68 | Brandon Phillips | 653 | 598 | 92 | 18 | 74 | 15 | 7 | .279 | .328 | .429 |
| 69 | Jose Altuve | 467 | 434 | 55 | 10 | 46 | 19 | 19 | .278 | .322 | .407 |
| 81 | Aaron Hill | 547 | 498 | 73 | 19 | 64 | 10 | 4 | .265 | .323 | .448 |
| 86 | Danny Espinosa | 632 | 567 | 75 | 20 | 62 | 17 | 9 | .242 | .312 | .413 |
| 94 | Rickie Weeks | 598 | 522 | 84 | 22 | 59 | 10 | 3 | .250 | .342 | .436 |
| 135 | Neil Walker | 588 | 529 | 65 | 13 | 79 | 8 | 5 | .266 | .328 | .415 |
| 145 | Dan Uggla | 655 | 566 | 88 | 26 | 85 | 3 | 3 | .238 | .336 | .423 |
| 165 | Marco Scutaro | 541 | 485 | 76 | 6 | 53 | 7 | 3 | .264 | .313 | .353 |
| 167 | Howie Kendrick | 598 | 553 | 65 | 12 | 73 | 12 | 5 | .275 | .318 | .410 |
In our ridiculously early draft, I picked Victor Martinez in the 10th round. I like the idea of picking up Martinez on the cheap, but I wasn’t exactly sure what his value would be after missing all of 2012. I will attempt to get an idea of his value going into 2013.
Most of the time, you can determine if pitchers were unlucky over the course of a season by looking at few factors like LOB%, BABIP or HR/FB%. Today, I am going to look a little further to find pitchers who may have been even more lucky or unlucky on batted balls by looking at their wBABIP.
Our astute reader Jonathan noted the following about our recent mock draft at Rotographs:
Zim bought in quite a bit on down seasons 2-5
Yes, Jonathan, you are right. After gladly grabbing Cano with the 7th over all pick, I took the following down picks:
2nd Round: Hanley Ramirez
3rd Round: Justin Upton
4th Round: Adrian Gonzalez
5th Round: Jacoby Ellsbury
I decided to party like it was 2012 all over again by trying to balance down side with the hopes of huge gains.
A couple of weeks ago, I was helping fellow writer, Chris Cwik, look for possible reasons James McDonald fell off the cliff in the second half of the 2012 season. As Cwik pointed out, the 27-year-old McDonald started falling apart after he threw 122 pitches for his only complete game (CG) of the season. I decided to see how young pitchers performed after throwing just one complete game during a season.
Jon Niese has turned into a steady, decent fantasy play. While he is not one of the biggest names in the league, he has given consistent results over his short career. He is a nice addition to fill out a fantasy pitching staff as a draft progress.
Going into the 2012 season, Mike Minor seemed to have good enough stuff for the makings of a decent fantasy pitcher. An above average strikeout rate and a below average walk rate are usually the components of a decent fantasy pitcher. Also, he looked to be a bit unlucky in 2011 and was posed for a breakout in 2012. The breakout eventually happened, but it occurred halfway through the season. He may be able to continue the 2nd half improvements into 2013.
The transformation of Madison Bumgarner into a fantasy ace is nearly complete. Over the last 2 seasons, he is 21st in ERA, 8th in FIP and 18th in WHIP. Last season, he was selected after some other comparable pitchers since he was not a known and/or trusted quantity yet. I would expect him to reproduced his excellent 2012 season except for his last 7 starts. They are a warning sign of possible future struggles.
