While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues. Read the rest of this entry »
A couple of weeks ago, I examined four starting pitchers using a small sample of predictive data. It was a half-hearted comparison. I’m correcting that today with a simple FanGraphs download to spreadsheet comparison.
I decided on the stats to use based on work I did for The Process. Here is a look at what early-season stats are most predictive of rest-of-season stats (R-squared values).
I used the two overall STUFH values (BotOverall, Pitching+) and the top two ERA estimators (SIERA, xFIP). Additionally, I wanted to weigh the stats that immediately stabilize (Ball%, SwStr%, Fastball velocity).
One major change, I put all the values on an ERA scale for easier comparison. Three values came in an ERA format, but the others need to be calculated. Here are the formulas I used (also in the provided spreadsheet).
Not all the values are in the download, so I created a copyable spreadsheet (File, Create a Copy) to paste the pitchers’ stats (cell L4), and then the various ERA values are calculated along with an overall value. The average ERA can be ordered by using the promote option in cell J4.
In this instance, Brandon Walter stands out with everything looking great, except his 92 mph (4.32 ERA) fastball. He could bomb, but the goal is to make the best decision with little information.
One possible change is to adjust the weightings. I equally weighed the values. Someone can always give more weight to certain values (Pitching+) or just remove others (FBv). For me, the table allows for easy comparison of pitchers. If I were to evaluate each pitcher, I’d look at the above stats. This makes the analysis easier.
Two additions could be included: the first is to add a projection based on the preseason prospect rank (overall and team), the other one is to include the pitcher’s ERA projection (via xlookup).
Let me know if you have any questions on setting up the spreadsheet to help evaluate pitchers with a small MLB data sample.
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the winning bids for the two 15-team Tout Wars teams.
7:32
Jeff Zimmerman:
7:33
Taco Grande: Projections show very similar numbers for Josh Smith and Matt Shaw for the rest of this year, with an edge to Shaw on the bases. Meanwhile results 10 weeks in show Smith the better option in all categories except SB. Is Smith a clear upgrade for the rest of this year (except SB)? Who do you like more long term in a standard 5×5 deep league keeper format?
7:34
Jeff Zimmerman: I checked my valuations and I have Smith way ahead of Shaw
7:34
Ben: who benefits the most in the BOS lineup w/no Devers?
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters. Read the rest of this entry »
• The second base circle jerk could be over with the promotion of Christian Moore. I’m guessing third base will continue to be a revolving cast of characters. Read the rest of this entry »
While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named “High Stakes Leagues,” and there are eleven of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain any advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.
Batters
Ronny Mauricio (11): In eight games since being recalled from AAA, he has started in seven games while batting .208/.296/.375 with 1 HR and 2 SB. The lack of production stems from a 50% GB and 30% K%. He’s been struggling against slower secondaries.
While there is some swing-and-miss in his game, his power stands out with a 13% Barrel%, 44% HardHit%, and 90.5 mph avgEV. Batters with similar overall skill sets to Mauricio are Johan Rojas and Noelvi Marte. Add and hope he makes contact eventually.
David Fry (9): Fry slots into the short side of the DH platoon. Seven of the nine games since he came off the IL were against lefty starters (22 PA vs LHP, 3 vs RHP). They have eaten him up. So far, he’s batting .143/.280/.286 (44% K%) with 1 HR and 1 SB.
His arm isn’t healed enough to catch and hasn’t hit lefties yet, so he feels like dead weight. He has three lefties on the schedule for next week, so maybe give him one more chance before moving on.
Tyler Freeman (9): Started in nine straight games, mainly batting ninth. So far, he’s been fine while batting .303/.372/.455 with 1 HR but 7 SB. In roto leagues, those stolen bases are gold. Hopefully at some point the Rockies management pulls their heads out of their asses and moves Freeman up the lineup, but I would count on either happening.
Ryan Ritter (7): Ritter seemed like a solid add. In AAA, he hit .305/.413/.635 with 16 HR and 3 SB in 245 PA (two triples so far). While he only had a 20% K% in AAA, it has ballooned to 38% in the majors with pitchers feeding him secondaries (41% fastballs). Here are his AAA per-pitch swing-and-miss numbers.
He’s seen more sliders than any other pitch with a 32% SwStr%.
Besides his struggles at the plate, Ezequiel Tovar will return from the IL, thereby forcing Ritter to move to a new position or back to AAA.
Kyle Teel (6): Since the 23-year-old was promoted, he started all five games while batting .250/.471/.250 (3 H, 5 BB) in 17 PA. His managers hoped for a continuation of his AAA stats (8 HR, 7 SB, .295 AVG in 213 PA).
He’s only seen fastballs 34% of the time with a swinging-strike rate of 20% or higher against sliders, curves, and changes. His 29% K% (16% SwStr%) is not debilitating, but it will hold him back.
Rosterable in all two-catcher formats based on the playing time prospect status.
Parker Meadows (6): Since coming off the IL, Meadows is hitting .161/.278/.258 (.217 BABIP) with 0 HR but 2 SB. Besides the low BABIP, all of his previous metrics line up. I was hoping he’d lower his launch angle, but he’s still trying to air every ball out (46% FB%).
The team doesn’t trust him against lefties even though he’s hit lefties (108 wRC+) better than righties (101 wRC+) over his career. He sat the first time the team faced one. The other time, he hit ninth.
Hopefully, he can stay healthy and provide 20/20 production over the rest of the season.
Nick Gonzales (6): Started in eight of nine games since coming off the IL while batting .242/.278/.455 with 1 HR. Solid middle-infield bench bat.
Jac Caglianone (5): In most instances, managers rostered Jeffrey Allen weeks ago. He’s not been great but also not a complete zero (.242/.242/.303).
Jacob Melton (5): The top prospect is starting (eight of nine games) but struggling to hit (.185/.241/.185) with the culprit being a 41% K%. Seems outmatched with limited upside.
Jerar Encarnacion (5): No stat line will positively stand out with a .077 BABIP. Besides having no batted ball luck, in seven games since coming off the IL, he’s only started in four of them. A pass for now.
Starters
Sawyer Gipson-Long (11): The 27-year-old righty debuted last week and is now in the middle of a two-start week. Over three levels during his rehab, he posted a 2.20 ERA (3.01 xFIP), 0.98 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9. The results have continued with a 4.32 ERA (3.09 xFIP), 1.08 WHIP, and 8.6 K/9.
Besides focusing on the least predictive stat (ERA), everything so far points to him being an above-average pitcher. The STUPH models love him with a 64 botOverall (2.78 batERA) and 105 Pitching+ (3.78 Pitch+ERA). His 15.7% SwStr% would rank third among qualified starters behind Tarik Skubal and Dylan Cease. His 26% Ball% points to a 1.0 BB/9.
I’m guessing I’ll have Gipson-Long as the top add in this week’s waiver wire report.
Note. The formula I use to convert Pitching+ to an ERA equivalent is: Pitch+ERA = -0.067 * Pitching+ + 10.815
Brandon Walter (8): In two starts, the 28-year-old lefty has been solid with a 1.64 ERA (2.45 xFIP), 0.91 WHIP, 58% GB%, and 8.2 K/9. He posted similar stats in AAA with a 2.08 ERA (3.63 xFIP), 0.76 WHIP, 60% GB%, and 9.3 K/9.
In the small sample, only the core stats are important, and they look good. His STUPHs are a 57 botOverall (3.46 ERA) and 104 Pitching+ (3.85 ERA). His 31% Ball% points to a 1.9 BB/9. While his fastball clocks in at only 92 mph, he has decent secondaries, a slider (15% SwStr%) and change (14% SwStr%), to get lefties and righties out. While his sinker hasn’t missed many bats (4% SwStr%), it does have a 75% GB%.
Walter needs to be added in all formats to see if the results continue.
Hunter Dobbins (6): Dobbins is a tough pitcher to value with him leaving the rotation and then rejoining it. In the last three starts, he has a 3.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Before that, it was a 7.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9.
He’s experiencing some issues with his release point as seen from his game plot.
His slider is released about a foot over compared to his fastball.
There was something there, and there still could be, but we can’t know for sure. None of the managers who added Dobbins started him against the Yankees, so they are going with a wait-and-see approach.
Mitch Spence (5): He was scheduled to face the Angels and did his best with 4 K, 0 BB, and 0 ER in 5 IP. Under the hood, things look great with a cutter (9% SwStr%, 48% thrown), slider (21% SwStr%), and curve (20% SwStr%). There are some questions about him staying in the rotation.
Justin Wrobleski (5): He was promoted to start on Wednesday but didn’t get the start or an appearance in the game. I have no idea what his role is going forward.
Casparius is more than an opener. Dave Roberts envisions him being able to go around 3 innings.
Justin Wrobleski is available to pitch, but not a guarantee he gets into the game.
Trevor Williams (5): I was part of these adds. With little pitching available, his next two starts were against Miami and Colorado in Washington. While Williams has a 5.91 ERA (.327 BABIP, 60% LOB%), his ERA estimators are at 4.00.
Mitchell Parker (5): Parker gets the same two opponents as Williams, but Parker’s is worse. His 6.0 K/9 is the 9th worst among 79 qualified starters, and his 3.6 BB/9 is too high for someone with so few strikeouts. His ERA and estimators hover around 4.50.
Bryce Elder (5): These adds were because of Elder’s home start against Colorado. On the season, Elder has shown high-3.00 ERA talent, so a reasonable dart throw against the Rockies.
Relievers
Randy Rodríguez (7): In 29 IP, he’s been elite with a 0.61 ERA (1.69 xFIP), 0.61 WHIP, and 13.2 K/9. So far, he has 3 Wins and 1 Save.
I started writing this week’s Big Kid Adds, and the article morphed into how to evaluate starters who have thrown just a few games (normal list of added players at the end of the article). With little information to go off besides prospect reports, it’s key to find the best talent before others.
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
Thanks for putting up with a limited list last week with my son at the state track meet. He performed as expected and it was great to see my family who came to see him.
Batters
Addison Barger: Over the past week, he’s batting .300/.364/.900 with 4 HR.
Trevor Larnach: Solid, steady approach by hitting .260/.324/.430 with 10 HR and 2 SB.
Matt Wallner: Just four starts in six games since returning from the IL. Over that time frame, he’s batting .235/.381/.588 with 2 HR.
Wenceel Pérez: Off the IL with eight starts in nine games. So far 25-year-old is batting .323/.364/.710 with 3 HR. Add now to see if a breakout is occurring.
Ryan Ritter: In AAA, the 24-year-old hit .305/.413/.635 with 16 HR and 3 SB. With Colorado inflated Steamer600 projections, he could be worth a dart throw.
Ronny Mauricio: The 24-year-old was batting .323/.384/.508 with 3 HR and 6 SB in AAA. Since being recalled, he has 12 PA where pitchers are not throwing him fastballs (37% seen). It’s tough to know how long he’ll start. I ranked him high on upside, but he might get demoted in a week when Vientos returns.
Willi Castro: El Fuego. Over the past week, he’s batting .385/.500/.885 with 4 HR and 1 SB. He was unrosterable until that point, so the hope is that he keeps the production going.
Abraham Toro: Started in nine of the last 10 games while batting .319/.333/.514 with 3 HR (career .249 BABIP, .339 BABIP in ’25).
Carlos Santana: Boring but steady (.256/.358/.389, 7 HR).
Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Started 13 straight at shortstop while batting .303/.348/.383 with 1 HR and 9 SB.
Giancarlo Stanton: Stanton is supposed to return in a week or so. I expect him to be fantasy irrelevant due to low production when he plays. If my team were searching for power, I would add Wallner instead.
Parker Meadows: Strong-side platoon bat with an .800 OPS and 1 SB since returning from the IL.
Jesús Sánchez: Continues to sit against lefties but batting fine otherwise (.265/.353/.391, 4 HR, 6 HR).
Mike Tauchman: Likely a platoon, but he’s leading off for the White Sox while batting .321/.435/.554 with 2 HR.
Thairo Estrada: Batting second since coming off the IL. No stolen bases or home runs so far, but hitting .273 AVG.
Andrew Benintendi: He starts every game and not much else (6 HR, .246 AVG).
Ernie Clement: So far, he is batting .281/.322/.395 with 3 HR and 2 SB. Clement’s playing time may take a hit with Andrés Giménez off the IL.
Jo Adell: Compared to previous seasons, few steals (2 SB) and ratio-killing batting average (.210). He is only providing home runs (9 HR).
Josh Bell: Struggling to get hits (.186 AVG, .189 BABIP) but does have 9 HR.
Tyler Freeman: Started four straight games while providing some batting average (.291 AVG) and stolen bases (4 SB) in 63 PA.
Jacob Melton: Four straight starts since being promoted. An .423 OPS so far after in the majors (.880 OPS in AAA). He is struggling with groundballs (90% GB%, -21 LA) and contact (35% K%).
Cole Young: So far, MLB pitchers are eating him up with a 40% K% and .153 OPS. They are doing it with 57% fastballs.
Denzel Clarke: Starting in centerfield but struggling to make contact (56% K%, .217 AVG). A .500 is the only thing keeping him in the majors. Additionally, he’s dealing with a shoulder injury.
Dominic Smith: Two starts at first base for the Giants with a career .717 OPS
Jorge Mateo: Only five starts in the last 10 days while batting .180 with 14 SB.
Hyeseong Kim 김혜성: Unrosterable with just four starts in the last 14 games.
Catchers
Dillon Dingler: Solid (6 HR, .293 AVG) while maintaining a hold on the job.
David Fry: He’d be the easy #1 if he were going to play more. For now, the plan is for him to be the short side of a DH platoon.
Kyle Teel: He was hitting great in AAA (.295/.394/.492, 8 HR, 7 SB), but the playing time will be up in the air with two catchers already on the MLB team.
Carlos Narváez: Starting most games and hitting (.284/.359/.451, 5 SB)
Alejandro Kirk: Continues to be a source of batting average (.304 AVG) and nothing else.
Hitting Prospects
Colby Thomas: In AAA, the 24-year-old is batting .302/.365/.566 with 14 HR and 2 SB in 260 PA.
Brady House: In AAA, the 22-year-old is batting .300/.353/.526 with 12 HR and 0 SB in 252 PA.
CBS Hitter Rostership Rates
Name
Previous Roster%
Current Roster%
Change
Giancarlo Stanton DH NYY
37%
39%
2%
Trevor Larnach DH MIN
35%
42%
7%
Matt Wallner RF MIN
31%
39%
8%
Parker Meadows CF DET
28%
43%
15%
Willi Castro 2B MIN
26%
37%
11%
Hye Seong Kim 2B LAD
26%
29%
3%
Carlos Santana 1B CLE
24%
33%
9%
Alejandro Kirk C TOR
23%
27%
4%
Carlos Narvaez C BOS
23%
24%
1%
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS PIT
21%
23%
2%
Dillon Dingler C DET
19%
26%
7%
Jesus Sanchez RF MIA
17%
24%
7%
Andrew Benintendi LF CHW
17%
19%
2%
Addison Barger 3B TOR
15%
50%
35%
Kyle Teel C CHW
15%
24%
9%
Thairo Estrada 2B COL
15%
17%
2%
Cole Young 2B SEA
14%
19%
5%
Ronny Mauricio 3B NYM
13%
26%
13%
Jo Adell CF LAA
12%
15%
3%
Brady House SS WAS
11%
13%
2%
Ernie Clement 3B TOR
10%
24%
14%
Josh Bell DH WAS
8%
11%
3%
Denzel Clarke CF ATH
8%
9%
1%
Colby Thomas OF ATH
7%
9%
2%
David Fry DH CLE
5%
7%
2%
Jacob Melton LF HOU
4%
9%
5%
Wenceel Perez RF DET
3%
7%
4%
Mike Tauchman RF CHW
2%
7%
5%
Abraham Toro 1B BOS
2%
5%
3%
Ryan Ritter SS COL
2%
5%
3%
Tyler Freeman RF COL
2%
3%
1%
Jorge Mateo SS BAL
1%
4%
3%
Dominic Smith 1B SF
0%
1%
1%
Starting Pitchers
Mick Abel: A must add in all leagues, even with just the possibility of a few more starts. So far, he hasn’t shown any weakness.
Landen Roupp: I’m a little surprised Roupp was still this lowly rostered with his stats (3.18 ERA, 3.63 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, 8.8 K/9).
Ben Casparius: The 26-year-old righty has been great this year, moving between starting and relieving (2.54 ERA, 2.83 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 10.2 K/9). With an injury to Tony Gonsolin, it seems like Casparius will join the rotation next week.
Colton Gordon: A .370 BABIP inflated his ERA to 5.11 while his ERA estimators have him as a 3.50 ERA talent. His 91 mph fastball is suspect, but his 21% K%-BB% ranks 29th of 97 starts with at least 20 IP.
Sawyer Gipson-Long: He got hit around in his debut with 5 H and 3 ER in 3 IP. Both STUPH models were in love with him (70 botOvr, 112 Pitching+), especially the cutter. Roster to see if the grades hold up.
Kyle Harrison: Day-to-day with an elbow injury. The 23-year-old has a 2.5 mph increase in fastball velocity and a 4.5% SwStr% increase. His ERA estimators are in the mid-to-high 3.00’s.
Charlie Morton: Over his last five games, he has a 1.64 ERA (3.01 xFIP), 9.8 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9. All the improvement was from not walking as many batters. Before this stretch, he had a 6.3 BB/9 and 9.38 ERA (5.39 xFIP).
Ryan Yarbrough: The magical 88-mph fastball keeps it going with the career-high 8.7 K/9.
Adrian Houser: While the 1.48 ERA will regress upward, the regression points to him being average ( 3.62 xFIP, 6.9 K/9, 0.98 WHIP). His fastball is up about 2 mph.
Edward Cabrera: The walks are at a career-low 3.8 BB/9, and he still has a 1.47 WHIP. With the 9.6 K/9, he’s a 4.00 ERA talent. His WHIP is a major drag in roto leagues.
Chad Patrick: He has suppressed home runs so far (0.7 HR/9), but even with expected regression, he should be near 4.00 ERA talent.
Chris Paddack: I’m not sure the .245 BABIP will hold, and everything points to him being a low-4.00 ERA pitcher. Streaming option.
Cade Povich: A .338 BABIP has inflated his 5.11 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Even with some downward regression to each, he’s at best a 4.00 ERA talent.
Stephen Kolek. Almost an identical twin to Paddack. My only issue would be if Kolek gets demoted once Darvish comes off the IL.
David Festa: Tons of strikeouts (11.3 K/9) but nothing else (5.40 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, 1.50 WHIP, 1.6 HR/9, .357 BABIP). He’s always gotten hit around with a career 1.3 HR/9 and .327 BABIP. I want him to be better, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Luis L. Ortiz: The 4.6 BB/9 leading to 1.40 WHIP. The WHIP does as much ratio damage as a 4.93 ERA. Better in a points league.
Ryne Nelson: He got lit up on Saturday with 7 ER, 3 K, and 4 BB in 3 IP. Even with the blowup, he remains a streaming option.
Bryce Elder: The positive part of his game is generating ground balls (51%). Every other aspect is below average, making him a below-average arm.
Bailey Falter: Among the 80 qualified starters, his 5.3 K/9 is the third lowest. Once his 0.8 HR/9 regresses to his career 1.3 HR, his ERA will jump a point or more.
Landon Knack: In AAA and not worth holding for a later date.
Miles Mikolas: A 0.6 HR/9 (with a lower GB%) is suppressing his ERA. A solid 5.00 ERA talent.
Paul Blackburn: Even though he had 0 ER in his first 2025 start, he’s moving to the bullpen.
