Author Archive

Mining the News (2/1/24)

American League

Angels

• Contrary to initial reports, Aaron Hicks was NOT guaranteed to be an everyday outfielder.

Hicks said on Tuesday that he was told by Minasian and manager Ron Washington that he will be an everyday player, seeing action at all three outfield spots and occasional time at designated hitter. But he later clarified, he only met that he’s ready to play every day and hadn’t been given any assurances about regular playing time. Minasian also said Trout will remain the club’s center fielder and that there are no plans to move him off the position.

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Mining the News (1/29/24)

American League

Angels

Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak are both out of options.

Both Adell and Moniak no longer have options. That means the team will have to make a potentially tough decision. If they add an outfielder before the start of the season, it’s hard to envision Adell staying on the team. But with his tools, at just 24 years old, it’s hard to give up on him.

As of right now, the outfield will consist of Trout, Taylor Ward, Moniak and Adell.

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Deep League Starting Pitchers (Scherzer, Rogers, Manoh, Montas, & Gray)

It’s finally time to start my annual tradition of examining starting pitchers being drafted after pick 300 in NFBC drafts. For each article, I’ll examine about five guys when I find time between updating my outfield and top-200 hitter rankings and also Mining the News.

Max Scherzer (302 ADP)

What a horrible pick. If everything goes as planned, the 39-year-old is out until at least June or July while being a 4.00 ERA pitcher last season (3.77 ERA, 4.02 xFIP) and is projected to do the same this year (4.04 ERA, 4.07 SIERA). This ADP is from 12-team redraft leagues with no IL slots. Why in the world would someone plan on holding an old, hurt, average pitcher for three to four months on their bench?

The only way I’d even consider adding him would be in the last round with the intention of dropping him during the first FAAB period and then sliding him onto my roster once he starts his return. Read the rest of this entry »


Mining the News (1/18/24)

American League

Angels

Nolan Schanuel is trying to get all buff because chicks dig the long ball.

Schanuel said he has been lifting weights and hitting in the cages four times a week this offseason in an effort to get stronger and develop more power. His average exit velocity was 85.4 mph, below the MLB average of 89 mph, per Baseball Savant. Schanuel also said he has been working on his speed. He ranked in the 36th percentile in sprint speed.

“That’s what this offseason was about for me,” Schanuel said. “I got my time in the big leagues, so now it’s about what I need to work on. I need to work on getting faster and unlocking that power with a wood bat. Just little things like that. But my time in the big leagues taught me what I need to get better at.”

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Mining the News (1/10/24)

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

American League

Athletics

Esteury Ruiz is working on getting to more power with his swing.

While Ruiz does not profile as a power hitter, nor do the A’s expect him to morph into one, they do believe there is a way to fine-tune his swing in order to unlock better contact. Those efforts have already gotten underway this offseason.

“I think the biggest thing, we can clean his mechanics up offensively,” A’s manager Mark Kotsay said. “I think we can open up some more power for him and some bat speed, and we’re excited about that. It takes the player to engage and want to make those changes, and I think he does want to make those changes.

“It’s going to be a process that he’s got to go through, but we’ve identified the things that we feel can open him up and make him even more of an impact player. He’s impactful when he gets on base, but our goal is to increase that by providing some power behind that swing as well.”

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Mining the News (12/23/23)

American League

Athletics

Sean Newcomb had a second knee surgery since he last pitched.

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Select Late-Season Arms (Rutledge, Severino, Spiers, Veneziano, & Vines)

Note: For the next few weeks, I’m going to focus on some pitchers who I thought were interesting but haven’t had time to dive in. Most were late-season debuts while others had an arsenal change. Others came of the IL as the season was coming to a close. I’m just going to work through them in alphabetical order and once done, I move to my normal late-round starters.

Jackson Rutledge

The 24-year-old righty made four end-of-the-season starts (two vs ATL) for the Nationals. He struggled with a 6.75 ERA (6.15 xFIP), 1.50 WHIP, and 5.4 K/9. He performed better in 23 minor league starts (3.71 ERA, 1.269 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9).

His fastball averages 95.6 mph and he throws it 60% of the time. It generated just a 9% GB% and an 8% SwStr%. His slider does have a 16% SwStr% and a low 20% GB%. The low groundball rates led to a 1.8 HR/9. Finally, he mixes in a worthless changeup (5% SwStr%). Without a change, he doesn’t have a way to get out lefties. On the season, he posted a 16% K%-BB% versus righties and a -2% K%-BB% versus lefties.

I could see instances when his average fastball and slider work together, he doesn’t face many lefties, and he has a nice start. Right now, he’s giving up a ton of home flyballs/home runs and just getting torn apart by lefties.

Luis Severino

After being a dominant pitcher for his career (3.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 10.0 K/9 coming into 2023), he struggled with an 8.0 K/9, 1.65 WHIP, and 6.65 ERA (4.83 xFIP) last season. He started the season with a lat injury and didn’t make his first major league start until May 21st. He made 18 starts and then ended the season on the IL with a side injury.

His K%-BB% has been on a nose dive starting at 32% in 2021 dropping to 20% in 2022 to 11% last season. His fastball didn’t hold him with the velocity steady at 97 mph and a 9% SwStr%. His issue were that his slider (9% SwStr%) and change (12% SwStr%) didn’t even miss bats at a league-average clip. He did introduce a cutter after the All-Star break (20% usage) that kept more balls on the ground (73% GB%, 7% SwStr%).

He saw some improvement in the second half with his K%-BB% increasing from 9% to 13% and his groundball rate from 39% to 46%. The stats helped his xFIP drop from 5.24 to 4.45. There was improvement but Severino was still putting out below-average results.

One issue was that he filled up the center of the strike zone as seen here:

And here is his pattern from 2022 when he moved the ball around more:

By filling up the zone, his BABIP jumped from .237 to .326, and his HR/9 from 1.2 to 2.3.

I’m not sure why he struggled so much besides the injury. With an NFBC ADP of 316, I’m sort of interested to see if the 29-year-old can get it together on the Mets. I’d prefer adding him in a waiver wire league to see if he can perform like he did a couple of seasons ago.

Carson Spiers

The 26-year-old righty made a couple of starts along with two relief appearances in the majors last season. The Red lasted between three and four innings in each appearance with his final stat line being 6.92 ERA (5.82 xFIP), 1.92 WHIP (4.9 BB/9), and 8.3 K/9. He threw only 2 IP in AAA but did have 83 IP in AA (3.69 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 11.5 K/9).

While his fastball only comes in at 93 mph, it had a 15% SwStr% in the majors. None of his other pitches had a swinging-strike rate over 10%. His slider and cutter do have some positive comps.

Slider (121 Stuff+, 53 BotStuff)

Cutter (106 Stuff+, 51 BatStuff)

Also, he struggled with lefties with a 0.0% K%-BB% against them while having a 16% K%-BB% against righties.

Too much needs to go right for Spiers to be a decent fantasy option. He’s not even average in any one area. Ignore him until he shows some progress.

Anthony Veneziano

The 26-year-old lefty threw two major league innings where he walked two batters and struck out one. Across two minor league levels last season, he threw 132 IP for the Royals with a 3.55 ERA, 8.7 K/9, and 1.27 WHIP. I almost skipped over him but he has an intriguing arsenal.

While his fastball averaged 94.7 mph as a major league reliever, it sat at 93 mph as a AAA starter with an 8% SwStr%. To pair with the fastball, he had a changeup (16% SwStr%) and slider (15% SwStr%). Here are the comps on his three pitches.

For a lefty, he has a way to get out both righties (changeup) and lefties (slider) while having an acceptable fastball.

He struggled with walks (4.3 BB/9 in AAA, 37% Ball% or equivalent of 3.2 BB/9) last season but in AA and AAA the league was experimenting with different balls and the automatic strike zones. There is no way to know how they affected him.

The pieces are there for a decent pitcher if he gets a chance.

Darius Vines

The 25-year-old righty started the season on the IL with a shoulder issue. He climbed through three of Atlanta’s minor league levels and posted a combined 2.37 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 8.9 K/9. While the strikeouts didn’t continue to the majors (6.2 K/9) the results were acceptable with a 3.98 ERA (5.58 xFIP) and 1.08 WHIP (.203 BABIP).

He doesn’t throw hard with a 90-mph fastball that doesn’t miss bats (5% SwStr% in majors, 7% in AAA). He throws a cutter (13% in both the majors and AAA) the same amount as his fastball (33% usage). His best pitch is an above-average changeup with an 18% SwStr% in the majors and 27% in AAA.

His changeup eats up lefties who have a 21% K%-BB% against him. He struggled against righties with a -5% K%-BB% (17% BB%). He has a slider to possibly get same-handed batters out, but he throws it less than 10% of the time.

While his changeup dominates lefties, he doesn’t have any swing-and-miss in his profile especially since he’s building off a 90-mph fastball. He needs to take a step forward to be draftable.

Previous Select Late-Season Arms articles. 


Select Late-Season Arms (Ashby, Gomez, Richardson, Rom, & Rosenberg)

Note: For the next few weeks, I’m going to focus on some pitchers who I thought were interesting but haven’t had time to dive in. Most were late-season debuts while others had an arsenal change. Others came of the IL as the season was coming to a close. I’m just going to work through them in alphabetical order and once done, I move to my normal late-round starters.

Aaron Ashby

Our 51st-ranked prospect, Aaron Ashby is recovering from shoulder surgery.

Aaron Ashby is another Brewers youngster recovering from shoulder surgery, but it doesn’t appear as though Ashby’s comeback attempt will lead to a return during the regular season or postseason. The left-hander hasn’t pitched at all in 2023 due to arthroscopic surgery in April, though he has pitched in seven rehab outings in September, advancing from high-A ball to Double-A to Triple-A. While rehab assignments are more about getting healthy than bottom-line results, the 15.43 ERA Ashby has posted over his seven total minor league innings indicates that he isn’t quite right yet, so it seems highly unlikely that the Brewers would turn to him as an option for a postseason roster.

While little info can be gleaned from his rehab starts, he threw 61 pitches in AAA so there are at least velocity readings from his pitches.

Pitch: 2022 Velo, 2023 Velo

  • Four-seam: 95.6, 91.5
  • Sinker: 95.8, 92.1
  • Change: 89.3, 87.0
  • Slider: 83.7, 78.7
  • Curve: 79.8, 76.7

Across the board, his velocities were down two to four ticks. Additionally, he walked 14 batters in seven innings. I can’t see a way to consider him until he re-establishes himself in Spring Training.

Yoendrys Gómez

The 23-year-old Yankee made 19 AA starts with some decent results (3.58 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 10.7 K/9). He got promoted to the majors and threw two shutout innings. In the majors, he threw a 95-mph fastball and four other pitches (curve, change, cutter, slider).

When evaluating small samples (31 pitches) like these, fantasy managers need to lean into the STUFFF metrics. In the two innings, Pitching Bot gave him an overall grade of 59 (56 Stuff). Stuff+ gave him a 114 Pitching+ (94 Stuff+). The two metrics grade him out as a Plus arm.

Now, his fastball velocity might have been playing up in the bullpen because in AA there was a report of 92-93 mph.

He has not been in any recent prospect reports but I want to see how he gets valued when deeper team reports emerge (e.g. Baseball America Top-30). Depending on his role, he’s someone I don’t want to lose track of in draft-and-holds.

Lyon Richardson

Over four different levels (A to MLB), the 23-year-old righty made 28 starts with his combined minor league stats at 3.50 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 13.0 K/9. The Red struggled in the majors with an 8.64 ERA (6.60 xFIP), 1.92 WHIP (8.1 BB/9), and 6.5 K/9 in 16 IP.

The only plus trait he flashed in the majors was a 96-mph fastball (6% SwStr%). None of his secondaries had a swinging-strike rate over 10%. In AAA, his changeup did have a 17.6% SwStr% (9.4% in the majors).

He didn’t have a slider the first time he was called up but did the second time. Here are its comps.

The comps aren’t the worst and might be worth pairing with just the fastball and change.

His lack of control will keep him off fantasy radars, but he has some interesting pieces to focus on.

Drew Rom

In eight major league starts with the Cardinals, the 23-year-old lefty struggled with an 8.02 ERA (5.60 xFIP), 2.08 WHIP (5.1 BB/9), and 8.6 K/9. While he was able to strikeout batters in the minors last season (10.5 K/9), walks were also issue (4.8 BB/9).

I’m surprised he gets as many strikeouts as he does with near 90-mph fastballs (91 mph four-seamer, 88 mph sinker) that he throws for a combined 68% of the time. Besides the two fastballs, he throws a slider/sweeper (6% SwStr%) and Splitter (10% SwStr%). In AAA, hitters were chasing all of his pitches with the four-seamer, slider/sweeper, and splitter getting swinging-strike rates over 18%.

The disconnect might be that hitters in the majors can discern his two different release points.

Rom pitched like someone who knows the Orioles as well as anyone, deceptively changing arm angles and locating 63 of his 93 pitches (68 percent) for strikes.

As seen here:

Usually, he drops down against lefties who he only throws fastballs (75% combined usage, no splitters).

Overall, he’s a complete mess with no major league swing-and-miss since he relies on his 90-mph fastball too much.

Kenny Rosenberg

The 28-year-old lefty struggled in 33 IP with a 3.82 ERA (4.87 xFIP), 1.48 WHIP (3.8 BB/9) and 7.9 K/9. While his stat line will show only three starts, he had an opener for three of the other seven games where he went five innings in each. In 100 IP in AAA, the numbers were similar at 4.95 ERA (4.91 xFIP), 1.51 WHIP (4.1 BB/9), and 10.8 K/9.

He attacked hitters with a 91-mph fastball that doesn’t miss bats (6% SwStr% in majors, 7% in AAA). His changeup is his best performing pitch with a 17% SwStr% in the majors (23% in AAA). Also, he throws a slider and curveball which perform below league average.

I can’t recommend a pitcher with just a plus changeup but everything else is below average including his control. The Angels have ignored him, fantasy managers can also.

Previous Select Late-Season Arms articles. 


Mining the News (12/14/23)

• Free Agent Lucas Giolito made an adjustment with the Angels to regain some velocity.

Laurila: What about your fastball velocity?

Giolito: “That’s roughly the same, it’s still low- to mid-90s. My velo was kind of down earlier this year, but I made a mechanical adjustment while I was with the Angels [from July 26 to August 31] and got it to tick back up a little. A lot of that was getting back on top of the fastball, which also helped me get a little more ride and hop.”

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Mining the News (12/11/23)

• Free agent James Paxton had issues with his front leg at the season’s end.

Laurila: You obviously had some really good outings this year. What tended to be the issue when you weren’t going well?

Paxton: “Honestly, just the execution of my breaking stuff. And then toward the end, my last few games, I was having trouble with my front leg. I wasn’t able to brace on my front leg, so I was kind of falling off and not being able to finish my pitches. That was nothing too serious, though. It’s already feeling better.”

Paxton’s knee started acting up on June 24th. Before the injury he had a 3.29 ERA (3.13 xFIP), 12.0 K/9, and 1.07 WHIP. After the inury, he posted a 5.31 ERA, 7.8 K/9, and 1.47 WHIP. His performance decline can be seen with a drop in his fastball velocity.

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