Author Archive: Jeff Zimmerman

Lineup Analysis (9/4/26)


Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

American League

Angels

• Oswald Peraza (.621 OPS, 7 HR, 12 SB in 344 PA) started the last three games at third base instead of Denzer Guzman.

Astros

• No changes.

Athletics

• Alika Williams (.735 OPS) started seven of the last nine games at shortstop.

• Since coming off the IL, Denzel Clarke (.421 OPS) has started two of three games, both in center field. In the small sample since returning, he has an 80% Contact% (65% before going on the IL).

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Big Kid Adds (Week 23)


Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in four or more leagues.

Batters

Walker Jenkins (8): In 19 PA, I haven’t seen anything that would change my value of him. While his Contact% is down from 85% in AAA to 72%, his strikeout rate dropped from 15% to 5%. He only has a .188 AVG (.143 BABIP), but his .250 ISO will play.

A small, faded red flag is that teams are not throwing him any fastballs (26% vs league average of 48%). It seems there is a book out on how to attack him.

Turner Hill (5): The 27-outfielder had a stretch of six straight starts for the Giants, but has only started in one of the last three games. Right now, Hill, Drew Gilbert, and Jonah Cox share two outfield spots.

I can see his appeal. He makes a lot of contact (88% Contact%, .342 AVG) with some power (9 HR in AAA). Additionally, he stole 24 bases in the minors this year with one so far in the majors. Kind of a Nico Hoerner-lite profile.

Will Smith (4): With Smith coming off the IL, he was an easy add for teams wanting to improve their catching.

Blaze Alexander (4): Before BLAZE went on the IL, he was starting every game, playing all over the field (2B, 3B, SS, and possibly OF qualified), and batting .312/.368/.439 with 4 HR and 9 SB.

Since returning, he’s struggled (.368 OPS) and only started in four of six games, at three different positions.

Héctor Rodríguez (4): After starting slow (.306 OPS in 34 PA), he has taken off with a 1.137 OPS in his last 39 PA. As I write this, he has hit another home run for a total of five.

Just looking at his overall stats, he doesn’t seem to have a weakness. The only complaint might be that he hasn’t stolen a base yet.

Jonah Cox (4): After appearing locked as a bench warmer, Cox started in six of the last seven games, including starts against both lefties and righties. In 75 PA, the 25-year-old outfielder has been balanced with a .294 AVG, 4 HR, and 8 SB. His batting average is at risk because it is propped up by a .516 BABIP, and his swing-and-miss will bring it down (44% K%, 64% Contact%).

Hao-Yu Lee (4): Starting (13 straight starts), hitting (.742 OPS, 8 HR, 2 SB), and qualified at two positions (2B and 3B). Some team in every league could use that help.

Starters

Elmer Rodríguez (5): I know there weren’t many starting pitcher waiver wire options,* but Rodríguez should not have been considered. Coming into the week, he had a 4.70 ERA (5.43 xFIP), 1.52 WHIP (5.1 BB/9), and 6.3 K/9. Still, managers in half of these leagues added him for a two-start week and were rewarded with 5 ER, 5 K, and 3 BB (2 HBP) in 3 IP.

He has never shown any control at any level, but for some reason, giving up just two walks in his previous start made people think he has turned things around?

His struggles stem from the fact that he can’t get any non-fastball over the plate. If he falls behind in the count, he is forced to throw a fastball across the plate or walk the batter. Besides complete desperation, I have no idea why he was rostered.

* Note: I think the wire is extremely picked over as managers are looking at each upcoming matchup and focusing more on pitcher matchup than pitcher talent.

Mike Burrows (5): Burrows was making progress from an elbow injury and had 15 K with just 5 BB in 13 IP during his rehab. But just before coming off the IL, his shoulder started acting up, and his rehab was stopped. He’s not rosterable anymore with so little of the season left for him to get healthy.

Davis Martin (4), Andre Pallante (4), and Nick Pivetta (4): As I note above, these deep-league managers are scrapping for any available starting pitchers.

  • Martin: Martin came off the IL and is facing the Astros this week. He wasn’t on bid lists for the Astros. Martin now lines up for two starts against the Pirates and Cardinals next week.
  • Pallante: Again, he’s still on the IL and might come off to face the Dodgers or at Colorado this week. Those aren’t the matchups managers are adding him for; it’s for potential starts against the Giants (x2) and the Pirates.
  • Pivetta: It’s not known when Pivetta will return, but he’s the best pitcher of the three and the Padres have some weak (and strong – LAD, at COL) matchups coming up.

Yusei Kikuchi (4) and Randy Dobnak (4): The desperation continues, as managers will add any pitcher with a pulse. While Dobnak’s results were great in his first nine appearances (1.58 ERA, despite a 1.40 WHIP), he turned back into a pumpkin over his last two starts (6.75 ERA, 1.33 WHIP).

Kikuchi starts against the Pirates this week, and his managers are hoping goes okay. He continues to get hit around (.331 BABIP and 1.5 HR/9) and has a 5.65 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Getting ahead with Martin, Pallante, and Pivetta keeps managers from starting Kikuchi, Dobnak, and Rodriguez.

Relievers

Bryan Hudson (8) and Elvis Alvarado (8): Both pitchers got their team’s last two Saves, so it’s reasonable that they’ll get some more this season.

Most Added Players in NFBC “Elite” Leagues
Name Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Bryan Hudson 8 12 1
Elvis Alvarado 8 11 1
Walker Jenkins 8 44 5
Elmer Rodriguez 5 11 1
Mike Burrows 5 15 2
Turner Hill 5 4 1
Davis Martin 4 5 1
Will Smith 4 32 2
Blaze Alexander 4 13 4
Hector Rodriguez 4 8 5
Jonah Cox 4 7 1
Andre Pallante 4 4 1
Randy Dobnak 4 3 1
Nick Pivetta 4 11 2
Yusei Kikuchi 4 4 1
Hao-Yu Lee 4 3 1

Mining the News (9/2/26)


Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Guardians

• Slade Cecconi seems to be building up as a reliever during his rehab assignment.

RHP Slade Cecconi
Injury: Right arm fatigue
IL date: Aug. 7 (15-day IL)
Expected return: September
Status: Set for second rehab appearance with Triple-A Columbus on Aug. 30. Threw 26 pitches over one scoreless inning in first outing on Aug. 25, followed by 10 pitches in bullpen.

Both of his appearances are out of the bullpen, but he has thrown 3.2 IP. Multi-inning reliever in the making. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the winning bids in the two 15-team Tout Wars redraft leagues.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:31
fyek276: hi jeff tnx as always. who do you project to be better ROS, carrigg or p. ramirez?

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Carrigg, lots of home games.

7:32
fyek276: john peck any good?

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Waiver Wire and FAAB Report (Week 23)


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In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.

The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers. Read the rest of this entry »


Lineup Analysis (8/28/26)

Pablo Robles-Imagn Images

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Angels

• Over the last six games, Vaughn Grissom moved up to hit either third or fourth.

• Jose Siri (vs LHP) and Gustavo Campero (vs RHP) were in a platoon, but Campero is now on the IL, so Siri may get full-time at-bats.

• Christian Moore (.639 OPS since being recalled) started five straight games at second base. Read the rest of this entry »


How Much Do Ratios Regress In Season?


THOMAS CORDY/PALM BEACH POST / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

I thought I’d had a smart idea. I wanted to see how “dead” affected a league’s standings as the season drew to a close. With managers quitting their teams for various reasons, I wanted to see how the rate stats for underperforming teams changed. The counting stats needed to move up or down the standings are easier to calculate for each league, but rate stat movement is a bit of a mystery. I expected the bottom teams to go after counting stats and ignore their ratio categories. They did not. Instead, I verified regression remains unbeaten … probably.

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Big Kid Adds (Week 22)


Jaiden Tripi-Imagn Images

While the NFBC Main Event garners most of the attention, there are a handful of leagues with even larger entry fees ($2.5K to $15K). They are named Elite leagues (previously called High Stakes Leagues), and there are nine of them. With so much money on the line, these fantasy managers try to gain every advantage. Most of the time, these managers will be a week or two ahead of everyone else on their adds. Here are the players and some information on the ones added in five or more leagues.

Batters

Andrés Chaparro (6): While Chaparro will always start against lefties, he began getting starts against righties. Coming into Sunday NFBC FAAB periods, he started in five of the last seven games against righties, three as the DH. Then CJ Abrams got hurt, and Abrams took over the DH duties. Chaparro has no fantasy value sitting on the bench.

Talent-wise, Chaparro is all power (8 HR in 150 PA) with his bat speed improving every season (72.4 mph to 73.3 mph to 74.6 mph). He’ll provide no speed, but for teams needing home runs, he was worth the gamble.

Rafael Flores Jr. (5): Flores has been great at filling in at catcher for Endy Rodriguez. In 24 games, the 25-year-old has 6 HR and .262 AVG. I’m a little worried his batting average could take a hit since he has some swing-and-miss in his game (30% K%, 68% Contact%). He’s not stealing bases, but he’s a catcher, so the lack of speed is expected.

He’s been able to get in some additional at-bats with seven games at first base. For teams needing a catcher replacement/improvement, add Flores.

Trevor Story (5): Story is expected to come off the IL any day now and rejoin the Red Sox. Before going on the IL (hernia), he was batting .206/.244/.303 (32% K%) with 3 HR and 4 SB. He’s been horrible in his rehab (.160/.192/.160) with his Average Exit Velocity down 2.2 mph.

Fantasy managers are probably dreaming back to last season when Story had 25 HR and 31 SB. I’m not sure that production is coming back for the 33-year-old.

Carlos Cortes (5): Coming into the week, the Athletics were scheduled to face all six righties (five now), so streaming the strong-side platoon bat was a solid idea.

The 29-year-old started the season off great, but has struggled in the second half (.788 OPS in 1H, .601 OPS in 2H). His strikeout rate has doubled from 13% to 25%.

Starters

Kade Anderson (9): In Anderson’s debut, I wanted to see what our STUPH models thought of this repertoire. It wasn’t good with a 5.07 botERA (similar to his 4.78 xFIP) and 87 Pitching+. For his pitches, the models loved the slider, were OK with the fastball, and hated the change and curve.

One interesting note from the start: he moves around on the pitching rubber depending on the handedness of the hitter.

He dominated lefties (33% K-BB%) but not righties (6% K-BB%) in the start, but the numbers were swapped in AA (41% K-BB% vs RHH, 25% K-BB% vs LHH). He’s an add, but may not be the league savior some managers hoped for.

José Urquidy (7): Before Urquidy’s Monday start, he had 11 K and 0 BB over his last two appearances (9 IP). Managers hoped he had righted his ship and bought in on a two-start week. They paid for it with 5 ER, 4 BB, 6 H, and just 2 K in 3 IP.

His fastball velocity dropped under 92 mph and is the second straight drop (93.7 mph to 92.5 mph to 91.8 mph). I know he’s locked in for this week, but I don’t trust him until he regains the velocity and strings together a few good starts. His usefulness this season might be over by then.

Randy Vasquez (5): Over his last six appearances (30 IP), he has a 2.76 ERA (4.79 xFIP), 0.73 WHIP, and 3.3 K/9. That’s right, just a 3.3 K/9. This week he faces the Pirates.

Over those games, he made a couple of changes. He finished dumping his curve (11% SwStr%) and threw his four-seamer (8% SwStr%, 31% GB%) and sinker (4% SwStr%, 48% GB%) the same amount after relying on the four-seamer during the season. These are small changes and his talent level hasn’t budged.

David Peterson (5): Since joining the Cubs, Peterson has been a solid 4.00 ERA talent (3.93 ERA, 4.10 xFIP, 4.74 botERA). While there are ups and downs, Peterson always regresses to the 4.00 ERA mark.

Blade Tidwell (5): The right-handed Tidwell is great against righties (24% K-BB%) and horrible against lefties (1% K-BB%). This week, he faces the Diamondbacks, who struggle against righties this year (89 wRC+, second lowest in the league).

The problem with Tidwell is that he’s just fastball/slider and doesn’t have a good pitch to get lefties out. He’s thrown a change 29 times this year, and it hasn’t generated one swing-and-miss.

He might not be worth starting next week against the Pirates since they crush righties (109 wRC+ vs RHP). The next week, he is  streamable against the Cardinals (94 wRC+ vs RHP).

Relievers

Justin Martinez (4): There is no clear closer in Arizona and there never will be (h/t to Frank Stampfl).

Rico Garcia (4): Garcia got the last Save in Baltimore, so desperate managers need to take a chance.

Most Added Players in NFBC Elite Leagues
Name Leagues Max Winning Bid Min Winning Bid
Kade Anderson 9 112 63
Jose Urquidy 7 17 6
Andres Chaparro 6 5 1
Rafael Flores Jr. 5 7 1
Randy Vasquez 5 5 1
Trevor Story 5 38 2
David Peterson 5 14 5
Blade Tidwell 5 5 1
Carlos Cortes 5 8 1
Justin Martinez 4 23 1
Rico Garcia 4 9 1
George Klassen 4 7 3
Drew Gilbert 4 4 1
Spencer Arrighetti 4 5 2
Marcus Semien 4 7 1
Quinn Mathews 4 3 2

Mining the News (8/26/26)


Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Note: Any noted rostership rates come from the NFBC RotoWire Online Championship, the same rates we use on the FanGraphs Player Rater. For reference, these leagues are 12-team Roto leagues with 30-man rosters (2 C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, UT, 9 P) and weekly add/drops. This rate can be compared to other rostership rates found in this article.

American League

Angels

• Ryan Johnson is throwing his cutter more.

Los Angeles was again the beneficiary of a good start from Johnson, who pitched seven scoreless innings and walked only two.

The right-hander has leaned more heavily on his cutter and used his sinker less frequently over his past two starts, an adjustment Suzuki said plays to Johnson’s strengths.

His cutter (10% SwStr%) usage increased from 31% to 54% instead of his sinker (1% SwStr%). A 100% LOB% has him with a 1.46 ERA over those games while having a 5.13 xFIP. The pitch is an improvement for him, but he’s still not rosterable. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Night Waiver Wire & FAAB Chat

7:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Here are the winning bids in the two 15-team Tout Wars redraft leagues.

7:31
Jeff Zimmerman:

7:31
AU86: Redraft OBP – pls rank Lawlar, Tawa, Marsee, Edman

7:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Tawa, Edman, Lawlar, Marsee

7:33
NicklePickers: AL Only obp bench bat time! Can you rank Jesus Sanchez, McAdoo, Sogard, Leody Taveras? (And is any worth one of my 3 bench slots in a daily league?)

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