Last week, I examined how a decline in pull rate (Pull%) and contact rate (Contact%) may be a precursor to overall decline. The idea was that if the hitter was worse at doing either or both, they could be in for a larger than normal decline. The research was an initial stab at the data and I got some great comments for future areas of stuady on it. With a few tweaks, I was able to take the ideas and refine the research in order to have a better understanding of what can be a good sign of a major decline.

Idea #1 – Use O-contact% instead of Contact%

Reader Brendan stated the following:

It would be interesting to take this concept and run an ANOVA amongst the 4 groups + control for o-zone contact rate AND z-contact rate separately, being that o-zone contact % is the one peripheral that drops off the cliff dramatically for older players. We’d get an idea about the extent to which overall wRC+ is affected by o-zone contact decline. Hardy’s 2014 and 2015 o-zone contact rate was much lower compared to recent years.

So I analyzed the data with various combinations of Contact%, O-Contact% (outside the zone contact rate), and Z-Contact% (inside the zone contact rate). I looked at several different combinations and none were really any better than Contact%. I decided to move forward with just Contact% for the rest of the analysis.

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• Greg Johns of MLB.com gave an update on former prospect Danny Hultzen.

The plan for Hultzen is to just get him pitching again and see if he can get his shoulder strengthened up enough to compete at some level for a full season. I don’t think they’re worried about rushing him to the Majors or stretching him out for future years. At this point, he just needs to get back on the mound and show he can stay healthy, and the short-term thought is that might be easier in a relief role. One step at a time there.

• Joe Lemire of USA Today wrote an article on the current state injuries and their prevention. Not a bunch of groundbreaking data, but I did find a bit of data I could study.

“We know teams will shut players down if they see certain changes,” TrackMan Baseball general manager John Olshan said, adding that conversely some clubs will hold back a player in rehab until his pitching measurements reach a certain threshold. “They might not know why that’s happening, but they know that somehow the player is compensating.”

I am not sure I am going to go back through the 2015 season look for data, but may be able to track through the 2016 season.

• At the Hardball Times, my year in review on the disabled list. The one item I was happy to make available is this time on the DL estimator. Not the most useful now, but will be great to use once the season starts.

• The Astros finalized their 2016 medical staff.

Players possibly on the DL in 2016

The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.

My fellow RotoGraphs writers and I have been working through our 2016 player evaluations. I was tasked with the declining J.J. Hardy. I noticed that two of his core hitting traits, the ability to make contact and pull the ball, had degraded from 2013 to 2014. While Hardy saw an overall decline in his skills when these two skills declined, I wanted to see it was common among other players. I was able to find that decline in these two areas is a sign of a player on a fast decline.

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• Yadier Molina had a torn ligament replaced in his thumb. He had the same procedure done two months ago.

The need for a second surgery means that Molina will not be fully cleared for the start of Spring Train-ing, general manager John Mozeliak confirmed on Wednesday. The Cardinals do expect him to be ready by Opening Day, Mozeliak added, but that will ultimately be determined by how quickly Molina can regain strength in that thumb.

To try to expedite the healing and limit mobility, Molina will wear a full cast for the next several weeks.

“I think by the end of January, the cast should be off and then he’ll begin his strengthening exercises throughout the month of February and March,” Mozeliak said. “The biggest question will be: When will he swing a bat? They don’t feel like any of this should affect how he catches or when he can catch, but to have him ready by Opening Day, [swinging] will really be the test.”

Sounds like Molina’s production level will come down for a bit, but, as always, the full extent is not known yet. Looking at some past similar injuries, 50% of the players took 60-74 days to return which is in line with the Cardinals report. Additionally, no instances exist of the return taking more than 74 days.

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Valuing injured pitchers who plan on returning at a later date can be tough to do correctly. Yu Darvish an example of such a pitcher. After having Tommy John surgery in mid-March this past season, Darvish should return some point after mid-May (14-month rehab is the norm now). An owner can expect above replacement level from Darvish, but for a couple months, a lesser pitcher will be used. I will step through the process of valuing Darvish by combining his value with a replacement level pitcher.

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Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist signed with the Cubs

The signing of both players by the Cubs points to two major impacts, a good Cubs offense and Javier Baez doesn’t have a full-time job. Starting with the offense, the Cubs don’t really have any holes except at catcher and there are worse catchers than Miguel Montero. If last year’s rookies (Russell, Bryant, Schwaber, and Soler) continue to grow and don’t regress too much, the Cubs could put up a ton of runs. This means plenty of Runs and RBI for every Cub. They will also get more at-bats since fewer outs are being made so more offense. It tough to put an exact number on the run increase, but I would not be surprised to see them challenge the Rockies for the most runs scored next season.

I just don’t see how Javier Baez is going to get regular playing time with Zobrist at second base and Russell at short. Zobrist gives the Cubs some flexibility to give some others a day off and Baez could fill in. Baez may only be looking at 200 plate appearances unless another starter has a major injury or a second-year player has a huge slump. I could see the Cubs move Baez in a trade.

Not much else really changed. The Cubs pitchers may see a small increase in value with Heyward in the outfield. Over the course of a season, Wrigley Field plays pitcher-friendly in the cold spring and then heats up in the mid-summer, so the pair’s offense will stay the same. Heyward and Zobrist are pretty much done stealing bases, so I don’t any movement in that category.

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• The Mets Wilmer Flores fractured his ankle playing winter ball. He should be ready for the start of spring training, but his playing time may be limited with the addition of Asdrubal Cabrera to the team.

• The Brewers have been awarded the Martin-Monahan award for “keeping its players on the playing field and off the disabled list”. This is the second year in a row the Brewers have gotten the award.

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David Price signed with the Red Sox

As a whole, the David Price signing doesn’t change his perception or ranking. He is back in the AL East where he made a majority of his career starts. Fenway is a bit of a hitter’s park, so he could see a bit of increase in his ERA and WHIP. Also, the Red Sox’s roster is not set yet, but its defense could vary greatly depending on its final configuration.

The biggest impact will be which of the other starters gets moved to the bullpen or the minors. I would not be surprised if they keep all of them. Buchholz’s disabled list paper work is already typed out and ready to be signed. The rest of the staff, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and Joe Kelly, all struggled at some point during the 2015 season. Right now it looks like Joe Kelly is the odd man out, all that could and probably will change by opening day.

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• It has been two weeks since my last report with almost no injury news updates. Hopefully, no news is good news.

• Ryan Braun doesn’t know how his latest back operation will affect his return timetable.

It was Braun’s first visit since undergoing surgery to relieve a bulging disc in his lower back.

“I feel pretty good, knock on wood,” said Braun, who is six weeks post-surgery. “The only surprise is the rehab is a little bit longer than I was anticipating, but other than that, everything went as planned and as expected. The first couple of days post-surgery weren’t fun, they were pretty painful. Other than that, I feel good.”

Braun is undergoing physical therapy four days a week. He downplayed the effect the prolonged rehab will have on his preparation for 2016, since he typically does not begin a throwing program until around Christmas, and he does not begin swinging a bat until January.

Asked when he expects his back to be 100 percent healthy, Braun said, “I have no idea. I’ll know when I get there. Certainly the goal is to be back to 100 percent. That’s my plan. I think it’s realistic, but until I get through the rehab and the physical therapy, I won’t know.”

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Jordan Zimmermann signed by the Tigers

The move to Detroit for the 29-year-old Zimmermann would be considered a downgrade based mainly on him facing a DH more often than a pitcher. The other factors are about the sasme. The ballpark factors are both league average. The 2015 Tigers defense was better than the Nationals according to UZR, but the Tigers also lost their top-rated defender in Cespedes.

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