Quite a few aces (and Matt Harvey) are throwing on Saturday so owners may not have many open slots but here are some lowly owned starters. While I normally limit my ownership rate to 10%, I bumped it up to increase the options.

Henderson Alvarez (1% owned) vs Braves (Julio Teheran)

Starting Alvarez is like playing Russian roulette with five chambers filled. It may kind of possibly end up good, but likely not. The basic issue is that it’s about impossible to have a feel for his talent level with spotty starts since coming back from shoulder surgery. Instead of trying to make sense of the rehab starts, I will let Steamer and Zips do the work. They put him with a near 5.00 ERA and 5.5 K/9. If those stats along with a possible Win, if he can make it five innings, against Teheran and the Braves are usable, start him.

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Continuing my Quick Looks series, today looks at a pair of NL East arm…

Mark Leiter

It’s like the 26-year-old righty didn’t exist before this season. I like to look at previous reports on popup guys to see what has changed. I was able to find one report on him at 2080baseball.com.

“A senior sign out of New Jersey Institute of Technology, he certainly got on some radars when he posted a 20-strikeout game his senior year before being drafted by his favorite hometown team, the Phillies. He doesn’t have pure “stuff” – his fastball barely touches 90 – but he’s a smart pitcher who works with what he has and has posted a 3.37 career ERA in 95 games, 69 of them starts, over 445 2/3 innings. He underwent shoulder surgery prior to the 2016 season but enjoyed a strong campaign that summer and now gets his call-up just a few games into his Triple-A debut.”

It’s not exciting but it’s at least a starting point. Now to move onto the starts I watched. There are no good camera angles for any of his starts. The best was against the Mets (9/4) when he lasted just three innings (video from it). Also, I watch his last start at home (9/15) against Oakland to see if anything changed.

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The march towards inning caps and strikeout titles continues with today’s lowly owned pitchers (<10% in Yahoo! leagues)

Gabriel Ynoa (0% owned) vs. Rays (Matt Andriese)

I spent way too much time analyzing Ynoa (I’ve decided to do a Quick Look on him and Leiter tomorrow). He’s shown some major-league talent and may just be one pitch from being a top-50 starting pitcher.

The 24-year-old throws a 4-seamer, sinker,  and a slider. He throws his slider (35%) more than either fastball (28% for each) to help his strikeout numbers. This season, he has allowed an above average rate of flyballs (32% GB%) but maintained a respectable 1.1 HR/9. His 7.6 K/9 is reasonable, especially paired up with a 1.9 BB/9. Both values are in line with his recent minor-league performance. Signs point to a potential sleeper but I have my doubts about a pitcher’s upside with only one breaking pitch.

I would gladly start him this game against Tampa who leads the majors in striking out. My only reservation is if he gives up too many home runs in Camden Yards and runs up his ERA.

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Our series on low ownership starters continues with those pitchers owned in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues who are expected to throw Tuesday.

Travis Wood (1% at Yahoo) vs Diamondbacks (Zack Godley)

I put the minimum strikeout rate needed for streaming consideration at 6.5 K/9. Wood just meets the benchmark but that’s it for his positive traits. His BB/9 is a 4.2. He has a 6.80 ERA. His ERA estimators are near 5.50. He’s facing Zack Godley and Diamondbacks, so the Win chances are slim. Probably look elsewhere.

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Here’s your daily dose of lowly owned starters. When Ubaldo Jimenez is the top choice, owners should know today’s pickings are slim.

Max Fried (1% owned) vs Mets (Jacob deGrom)

I can’t come up with a reason to start Fried. Also, I can’t come up with a good pun. His strikeout rate (6.5 K/9 with upside) is acceptable for these lowly owned starters but that’s where the positive traits end. He’s always had walk issues and his walk rate (5.9 BB/9) is almost higher than his strikeouts. His near five ERA (4.70) is near his ERA estimators. Also, he hasn’t gone far into his games to even get a Win averaging just 4.1 IP per start. The low strikeout and low win chances mean a pass for me.

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Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned pitchers throwing tomorrow (<10% in Yahoo! leagues).

Sean Newcomb (9% owned) vs. Mets (Rafael Montero)

Why not? He’s what streaming is about, strikeouts and maybe a Win. He has a 9.4 K/9 on the season with 11.6 K/9 in AAA. He’s facing a beatable Mets team with Montero on the mound. While he’ll walk more than a batter every other inning inflating the owner’s WHIP and ERA, owners know these lowly guys have some negative traits. At least Newcomb as some positive ones, too.

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After the feedback from yesterday’s post on low ownership starters, I may continue this series until the season’s end. All these pitchers featured are owned in less than 10% of Yahoo! leagues.

Additionally, I’ve added the opposing team’s strikeout rate for reference. The league average is 21.6%.

Chad Bettis (5% owned) vs Arizona (Zack Godley, 23.9% K%))

After returning from beating cancer, Bettis is not throwing his best. His fastball velocity is down ~2 mph from last season (91.7 mph to 89.8 mph). The velocity loss could explain why his home run rate (2.1 HR/9) is at a career high.

Besides giving up a ton of home runs, the velocity loss has pushed his strikeout rate (6.0 K/9) to a career low. One favorable aspect is a career low walk rate (1.3 BB/9). Pulling the preceding data points together, he’s a below average starter with little chance for strikeout and ERA help (WHIP could be OK with the low number of walks).

The Rockies are trying to secure a Wild Card spot and that is what Bettis is now, a chance for a Win. Not much else.

Daniel Gossett (1% owned) at Red Sox (Drew Pomeranz, 19.2% K%) Read the rest of this entry »

It’s that time of year when teams will be churning through starting pitchers hope to improve their Strikeout and Win totals. Here are my thoughts on some lowly owned guys (under 10% owned):

Buck Farmer (1% Yahoo) at Cleveland (vs. Mike Clevinger)

Just looking on the surface, I would say roll with Farmer and collect some strikeouts (8.9 K/9) and take an ERA hit. The problem is that those strikeouts came early in the season. In his major-league stint in June, he posted 11.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9. Since returning, those numbers are 5.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9. There’s no guarantee his strikeouts will return.

Additionally, his flyball nature (48% FB%) has pushed his home run rate up to 1.7 HR/9. The home runs have inflated his ERA up to 6.32 with his ERA estimators hovering around five.

With Cleveland hitting on all cylinders right now, the Win is unlikely. With little chance for the Win and strikeouts, I would pass on him. Read the rest of this entry »

Dillon Peters

• The 24-year-old, 5’9 lefty throws straight to home (no weird angles) from ¾ arm slot. I watched his last start from September 6th when he faced the Nationals.

• Fastball: 88-92 mph and it usually had a late dip. A few other times it had as much rise as a normal four-seamer. Looking at the pitch information, it seems to be just one pitch considering the spin axis. One possible explanation is that he lost fastball velocity as the game went on.

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Most of my articles are based off myself wanting to know about a subject and just hoping some readers want similar information. I’ve been overwhelmed over the last week with various names and roles for several prospects. Today, I am going to try to wade through these recent promotions to see which players are rosterable and which are just fluff. They are generally listed in my order of preference but each owner will need to see if a player (e.g. Greg Allen for steals) is usable depending on their own team needs.

Hitters

Jeimer Candelario: His value comes down to he can hit for some power and is playing regularly for the Tigers. Additionally, he’s been red hot since joining the Tigers (.400/.478/.500). He should be a .250 hitter with double digit home runs, and no stolen bases over a full. While boring, he is the only hitter featured playing every day.

Greg Allen: In daily lineup leagues, I see him as a must own for owners needing steals. Allen has one usable fantasy trait and that’s stealing bases. Like many of the rookies called up, he’s not getting regular playing time. He’s only started two games but has been in three others as a pinch hitter or runner. Because of his pinch running skills, steal deprived owners can start him if they have another player taking the day off hoping Allen gets used as a pinch runner. Owners shouldn’t count on him for any other production besides the steals.

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