A few years back, I created a system to help me find under the radar prospects using just position, age at the level, and minor league production (wRC+). I wanted a system besides industry lists to use in dynasty leagues and it worked fine. At the same time though, FanGraphs hired this guy named Chris Mitchel and he created KATOH. His system quickly outperformed mine, so instead of trying to keep up, I asked him to join my fantasy teams. With Chris now gone, my old system is back and running to help find some diamonds in the rough.

As I previously stated, the rankings are just based on age at the level, position, and production. The final value created by the program approximates the players value based on lining up the player to actual prospect grades (80 = MVP, <20 = minor league filler). Obviously, the ranking isn’t close to the final say but I find some hitters before other do.

Note: If any player type seems misplaced, let me know. From eye-balling some values, catchers may be getting too much of a position adjustment.

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In my chat last night, I got several questions on Joey Votto and his power loss. I decided I investigate the drop along with several other regulars who currently have an isolated power (ISO) less than their projected Steam projections.

To get a list of hitters, I took the hitter with a least 150 PA this season and compared their projected and actual ISO’s. Here the top 20.

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Big Five Value Movers

1. Danny Valencia looks to be hitting fulltime in Baltimore.
2. Greg Bird is batting 3rd for the Yankees.
3. Cleveland’s and Houston’s outfields are in flux with players returning from the DL.
4. Heyward and Almora are playing fulltime with the Cubs.
5. Joe Panik is leading off for the Giants.

Angels

• I can’t believe the lack of talent surrounding Mike Trout. In their last game, the Angels figured Martin Maldonado was their fifth best hitter.
• For the few fantasy-relevant hitters on this team, they are set at the lineup’s top except Albert Pujols who has been dealing with an ankle injury the past few years days.

Astros

• Josh Reddick’s return has caused a ripple effect with Tony Kemp, Jake Marisnick, and Marwin Gonzalez each seeing their playing time cut. For now, I would stay away from them all.
• Evan Gattis is back to being the permanent DH. After struggling out of the gate, he has hit .286/.350/.714 over the past month with nine home runs.

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The MLB Draft is unique in that it happens during the season. For the football and basketball drafts, they happen well before the season starts because the players can contribute for the upcoming season. With baseball, the odds are against one single player getting the call this season. That doesn’t mean fantasy owners, especially those in keeper and dynasty formats, shouldn’t possibly be making some moves depending on their needs.

The biggest key for anyone considering rostering a just drafted player, know your league rules. First, some leagues may not allow the drafted players to be rostered until the next offseason draft. Other leagues don’t allow owning a player until they’ve at least played a minor or major league game. In some other leagues, the players are rosterable this next FAAB period. Each one is unique. Let me start the discussion with the last league type.

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I’m going to blame Mark Melancon. I started out yesterday with the hope of writing about him. The article was selfish because I took a chance on Hunter Strickland before he was named the closer and my gamble paid off. With Melancon back, I wanted to see if his reduced velocity cutter would still be useful. And that was as far as I got with the article.

I was sick of thinking about fantasy baseball.  The problem is that when your livelihood requires continuous fantasy baseball content, this sickness can’t last. I tried to move onto another topic with no luck. After a few unproductive hours, mainly wasted on Twitter discussing valuing player risk, I just gave up. The dog days of summer hit me head on and I lost.

This event usually occurs me a couple times during the summer with content and demands coming at me constantly. I approach them two ways. Either I just power on and produce 20-grade material or beg my bosses for a break. As this article demonstrates, I am going with the first approach.

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Batter production can roller coaster up-and-down during a season and many times the player’s production eventually stabilizes at an expected level. But sometimes a hitter intentionally or unintentionally changes his plate approach to achieve a new talent level. I’m going to examine three top hitters, Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jose Altuve, and why their struggles are caused by changes in approach.

Over my years of research, I’ve found three main items which point to a true talent change, swinging at pitches out of the strike zone, hitting pitches in the strike zone, and groundball rate (verified with launch angle). When one of these items change, the hitter’s production should also change. Luck could still be a factor in the short run but given enough time, there will be a new output level.

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Angels

• They have not been able to settle on a leadoff hitter, mainly because Zack Cozart (.232/.310/.395) and Ian Kinsler (.217/.286/.331) both haven’t hit. I wonder if the Angels may add a high on-base outfielder to leadoff.

Astros

• None

Athletics

• They are using the same platoon lineups over the past few weeks with Marcus Semien’s paternity leave causing some mix-ups.

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Michael Taylor

I was a little surprised to find the 27-year-old available in my Tout Wars league where every semi-decent full-time player seems to be owned. While I didn’t need outfield help, I examined his profile and jumped at the opportunity to roster him.

I valued Taylor as an endgame option coming into the season based on his low AVG and suspect playing time with Victor Robles ready in the minors. The 2018 Nationals outfield has been decimated with injuries so far, so Taylor’s playing. The playing time could end with Adam Eaton attempting to return but, for now, Taylor’s roster spot is secure.

As for Taylor’s talent, he falls into the Drew Stubbs player profile, horrible AVG/OBP skills but a decent combination of home runs and stolen bases. Combining his 2017 minor and major league totals, he posted 20 home runs and 21 stolen bases. While the home runs haven’t come this season, he has hit four with 13 steals in 14 attempts.

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