Rarely is OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) a fantasy stat. It’s off many people’s radar but it’s widely available and closely mimics a position player’s overall hitting talent. While other stats (e.g. wOBA and wRC+) also give a hitter an overall value, these stats aren’t available at every website. Most sites have their own unique blend but OPS is commonly available. Because of this availability, I’ve been using it as a baseline in recent articles on adjusting projections based on prospect pedigree and when hitters get platooned ($$). Now, it’s time to use OPS to help predict the individual categories.

The process I used for this study was to simply see how much various stats changed when OPS changed a certain amount. For rate stats (e.g. batting average) the conversion is straightforward. For counting categories, I put the stats on a per 600 plate appearance scale. Additionally, I only compared data from 2015 to 2017 during the current “juiced” ball era. I know the process is not close to being 100% precise and that is fine. I’m just trying to create general adjustments and can look to hone the process later. I’m putting in 20% effort to get 80% of the answer.

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My focus is on lineup position and the amount of regular play each hitter get. I’m not concentrating on positions played. Also, if a team isn’t listed, I didn’t find any new information.

Note: I highlighted what I consider to be the seven most important findings.

Angels

• Zack Cozart’s value is taking a major hit as he’s been drawing the short straw when Shohei Ohtani DH’s.

Astros

• Evan Gattis owners may need to start looking for a replacement as his struggles with the bat (.187/.260/.275) has led to him starting three times in the last 10 games.

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As a Royals fan, I try my hardest to not roster any to make sure I limit my hometown bias. Two bats, Alex Gordon and Jorge Soler, are heating up to the point they are being rostered in 15-team leagues and even some shallower ones with Soler. It’s time to perform an unbiased examination of the pair.

Alex Gordon

All I’ve been able to hear when Alex Gordon’s name is brought up is:

“F’ it, I guess I’ll take Alex Gordon.”

One of my league mates blurted this statement after struggling to locate an available outfielder in my home AL-only league auction.

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My current aim in fantasy baseball is to find instances where player evaluations can be improved. With several prospects recently getting called up, I am trying to answer the simple question: is there any projection information to be gained from being a highly touted prospect. The short answer is yes, but it took me a while to get good results.

I wanted to keep the analysis simple so I used all available Steamer projections which to back to 2010. Additionally, I used Baseball America’s top 100 ranked prospects for that time frame. From these two data sets, I compared the hitter’s projected results to the actual results for their first few seasons.

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Last week, I wrote about the expected power from JaCoby Jones and Lewis Brinson. In the article, I mentioned the hitter’s rank compared to other hitters with no context resides just the rank. Today, I correct this flaw in my analysis by finding the league averages and putting the data on the 20-80 scouting scale.

While overall ranks do provide some information, it’s tough to put the rankings into context. Nelson Cruz is first in average exit velocity (EV) at 97 mph. Dropping down 2 mph in exit velocity is Luke Maile at #10. Two more is Jacoby Jones at #26. And another two is Francisco Lindor at #75. The first 4 mph in drop was just 26 players while the next 2 mph was 49 players. The batted ball decline rate is not linear and just a few tenths of a mile-per-hour can jump a player 20 spots in the rankings.

I need a way to label hitters and had to invoke some math. I took the hitters with 100 batted balls per season from 2015 to 2017 and found the overall average value. Using the 20-80 scouting scale, I gave the average values a 50-grade.

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Caleb Smith

If I didn’t give Smith a Quick Look, I feel I was failing. I watched the 26-year-old lefty’s game from the 22nd (good camera angle) when he went 6 IP, 2 ER, 10 K’s, and 0 walks.

• Fastball: 91-94 mph. Kept it down and commanded it well. Hitter just couldn’t get a read on this pitch but I couldn’t tell exactly why. Some hitters are seeing it well since it has given up all his home runs.
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I’m of the belief that there is a group of similarly talented players who owners should keep churning to find the latest true breakout. Lewis Brinson (64% FanTrax ownership) and Jacoby Jones (24% owned) are two such players. While Brinson was part of the draft endgame with a 275 NFBC ADP, Jones was waiver wire fodder in almost every league with an ADP of 660. If given the option, I’d gladly own Jones right now.

What’s wrong with Lewis Brinson?

Brinson has been a highly touted prospect for several seasons with Baseball Prospectus having him on their Top-101 back in the 2013 but he jumped onto all major lists starting in 2016.

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Marco Gonzales

The 26-year-old lefty is straight up dealing with a 10.7 K/9 and only a 1.6 BB/9. No pitcher with a strikeout as high as his has a lower walk rate. His K%-BB% is the 12th best among qualified starters.

Gonzales’s great start is being hidden by a .406 BABIP fueled 4.37 ERA. While he struggled giving up runs in his first three starts, he allows nothing in his last two. Gonzales may finally be living up to some of his prospect status from a few years back.

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