Since I’ve started this tracking the NFBC Main Event FAAB bids, I’ve gained some insight on how the owners spend their money. A few nuggets I’ve found is the high prices paid by owners chasing Saves and the money hoarding that happens right before the trade deadline. This week, it’s time to see the money spent on impact rookies with the promotion of Michael Kopech.

I expected a fairly bland week with prospect call-ups starting next week. After September 1st, any player on the 40-man roster can be called up and the time in the majors doesn’t count for their service clock. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Eloy Jimenez are the two big names who owners have been waiting on.

Without getting too far ahead, here is a look at how last week’s newly adjusted projections performed.

The results from my FAAB estimates this week.

I was way off on Taylor Ward but his value heavily depends on him being catcher eligible.

Owners stepped up to pay for closers this week. https://t.co/kimu1c0IiY pic.twitter.com/OI8DFDffut

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 21, 2018

While the results (and spelling) were not perfect, they were better than the previous few weeks. Owners do continue to spend their limited resources on potential closers (Hildenberger and Glover).
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Jacob Nix

Fastball: Come in at 91-95 mph and straight but the 22-year-old righty hit his spots moving it around the strike zone.

By the 5th inning, he’d lost a couple ticks off the fastball. With the velocity loss, he may struggle later in games.

Curve: 76-79 mph with a 12-7 break. He didn’t have a feel for it and bounced a couple up to the plate. It’s not loopy and has above average speed. It could be a really good pitch for him.

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It’s been a few weeks since I’ve dived into hitting prospects. I’m ready for a beating in the comments. Besides the overall list, I’m going to dive into a few sluggers who are showing some promise.

These projections are based off the player’s production (wRC+ which has stadium and league adjustments), their age for level, and a small amount of regression. I used to incorporate a position adjustment but FanGraphs source data changed and I haven’t coded in a solution.

Are

• A supplement to Eric’s and Kiley’s prospect rankings. This set utilizes stats, the hitter’s age compared to the level’s average age, and some regression to find potential overlooked prospects before they start showing up on major prospect lists.

Aren’t

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Braves

• This lineup is scary consistent.

Brewers

• Travis Shaw is sitting against lefties with Hernan Perez slotting in. This season, Shaw is posting a .565 OPS against lefties and .890 against righties.
• Jonathan Schoop has really struggled (.163/.180/.204) since being traded to the Brewers. While he started regularly right after the trade, Orlando Arcia is cutting into his playing time.
• One outfield slot switches between Eric Thames and Ryan Braun with Thames always sitting against lefties.

Cardinals

• Since getting rid of Matheny, the lineup has been stable expect Tyler O’Neill has played right field since Jose Martinez is dealing with hip soreness.
• Second base isn’t set with Kolten Wong and Greg Garcia splitting time with Yairo Munoz on the DL.

Cubs Read the rest of this entry »

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For the past month, I’ve been struggling to estimate the NFBC Main Event FAAB bids with my estimates coming in on the high side. I thought dormant owners or the trade deadline could have been behind the low estimates. After still being about three times too high last week, I dove in and redid my prediction formulas with hopefully better results.

For reference, here were some of the estimates and bids from last week.

I've been trying to estimate the weekly FAAB spent in the @thenfbc main event leagues.

https://t.co/CaLa0Azztx

My projections are over, again

Name: Projected, Actual
Scott Alexander: 111, 29
Ryan Madson: 100, 22
Brian Johnson: 18, 6
Hunter Renfroe: 45, 26
Tommy Milone: 11, 4

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 13, 2018

The values were so far off, they needed a correction. After testing several methods, I came up with improved results. The biggest change was a larger weekly factor dragging down estimated bids as the season progresses.

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Angels

• The lineup is in flux with Mike Trout out, Ohtani DH-ing half the time, and Taylor Ward getting promoted.
• Since the All-Star break, David Fletcher has started every game and recently has either hit second or fifth. He has no power or speed but he’s a nice everyday accumulator.

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It’s time for another round of potential unknown pitching prospects. In this iteration, I made a rather major change to the age for level adjustment. Additionally, I examined a few high minor league starters.

First, for the adjustment. I felt too many mediocre 20-year-old or younger arms were near the list’s top. While these pitchers could develop into decent 4th or 5th starters, they weren’t top end starters. I cut the factor for age at the level by over half. More elite pitcher from the lower levels, no matter their age, jumped up the list.

Additionally, I keep getting comments on being transparent on the process. It’s not complex with just three inputs. With so much noise included into ERA and any batted ball data, a struggling pitcher can be high on this list.

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Touki Toussaint

Fastball: The 22-year-old righty threw a 91-96 mph with a decent amount of release side run. Generally, he can control the pitch but its movement can cause it to dart in-and-out of the strike zone. This movement may help him generate weak contact.

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