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For the past month, I’ve been struggling to estimate the NFBC Main Event FAAB bids with my estimates coming in on the high side. I thought dormant owners or the trade deadline could have been behind the low estimates. After still being about three times too high last week, I dove in and redid my prediction formulas with hopefully better results.

For reference, here were some of the estimates and bids from last week.

I've been trying to estimate the weekly FAAB spent in the @thenfbc main event leagues.

https://t.co/CaLa0Azztx

My projections are over, again

Name: Projected, Actual
Scott Alexander: 111, 29
Ryan Madson: 100, 22
Brian Johnson: 18, 6
Hunter Renfroe: 45, 26
Tommy Milone: 11, 4

— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) August 13, 2018

The values were so far off, they needed a correction. After testing several methods, I came up with improved results. The biggest change was a larger weekly factor dragging down estimated bids as the season progresses.

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Angels

• The lineup is in flux with Mike Trout out, Ohtani DH-ing half the time, and Taylor Ward getting promoted.
• Since the All-Star break, David Fletcher has started every game and recently has either hit second or fifth. He has no power or speed but he’s a nice everyday accumulator.

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It’s time for another round of potential unknown pitching prospects. In this iteration, I made a rather major change to the age for level adjustment. Additionally, I examined a few high minor league starters.

First, for the adjustment. I felt too many mediocre 20-year-old or younger arms were near the list’s top. While these pitchers could develop into decent 4th or 5th starters, they weren’t top end starters. I cut the factor for age at the level by over half. More elite pitcher from the lower levels, no matter their age, jumped up the list.

Additionally, I keep getting comments on being transparent on the process. It’s not complex with just three inputs. With so much noise included into ERA and any batted ball data, a struggling pitcher can be high on this list.

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Touki Toussaint

Fastball: The 22-year-old righty threw a 91-96 mph with a decent amount of release side run. Generally, he can control the pitch but its movement can cause it to dart in-and-out of the strike zone. This movement may help him generate weak contact.

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I feel I’m entering uncharted waters as the FAAB results are agreeing and conflicting with the narratives. For the first few weeks, my FAAB predictor was working fine and then right before the trade deadline, most bids were a third of the expected values. While I speculated owners were hoarding FAAB for trade deadline moves, I had no evidence yet for the assumption. I’ll show the assumption might have been right and what to expect to spend this week’s bids.

Overall Trends

When I last ran this report (sorry for missing last week, but I was at the SABER Seminar) on the 34 leagues in the NFBC Main Event, the estimates were far from the results. Two ideas crossed my mind as causes. First, dead owners were no longer spending, or they were saving every dollar for deadline deals, especially those who had the most FAAB. It seems like the FAAB hoarding situation was correct as spending spiked as the highest percentage of remaining FAAB was spent last week.

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A couple nights ago, I sat down to do a Quick Look at two pitchers, Brett Kennedy and Tommy Milone. Both had horrible starts with game ERA’s over 10 and lost quite of bit of fantasy value. After watching each start, both pitchers may end up being usable but owners will need to proceed with caution.

Brett Kennedy

I’ve anticipated this callup for a while after prospect pitcher finder spotted him earlier in the season. Before his major league debut, 24-year-old righty was projected to the be the Padres best starter by ERA. After the start, he dropped below Joey Lucchesi.

The 11th round draft pick was never on anyone’s prospect radar but he has been tearing up the PCL with a 10-0 record, 2.72 ERA, and an 8.1 K/9.

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This past weekend, I attended the always incredible SaberSeminar in Boston. It was great time catching up with friends (Dave Cameron sighting) but also to take in some innovative ideas. I decided to share some fantasy applicable topics which were discussed.

Pitch Tunneling

Experimentally determining the “Commit Point” – Evaluating the time it takes a hitter to check his swing by William Clark and Joe Petrich

Pitch Tunneling, Pitch Calling and Expected Outcome: A Former Pitcher’s Perspective by Dan Blewett

Pitching tunneling was brought up several times by several speakers but these two came to the same conclusion. The reaction time for a batter to determine the pitch type may be less than previously calculated. It was thought that a hitter had around 225 ms to 275 ms to decide to swing. It’s possible that the time may be under 200 ms and the batter may be keying off the release point.

Also, if a pitcher is struggling, it might be worth looking over at his release point charts (example with Jon Gray). Make sure all the pitches are clustered together and haven’t been recent moving around.
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With the non-waiver trade deadline over, it’s time to focus on mixed-league actionable moves. With most of the trades, a player’s value didn’t change enough to make a roster transaction. For example, Chris Archer was owned in all leagues before the trade from the Rays to Pirates and will be owned in all leagues after the trade. Many of the biggest trades are just mixed-league irrelevant. I ranked the players who should be moving on and off rosters in the next few days as the dust settles.

Note: I’m 100% sure I missed something obvious. There was just a ton of moves. I will update this article as I find more players or my obvious errors are pointed out.

Top Gainers (Waiver Wire Targets)

• Jose Leclerc (Rangers): After the trade of Keone Kela to the Pirates and Jake Diekman to the Diamondbacks, the Rangers have a new closer. The 24-year-old righty has been a dominant setup man this year with a 12.7 K/9 and 2.27 ERA and should be a fine closer. There is a chance Alex Claudio gets this role.

• Kirby Yates (Padres): If owners were reluctant to roster own him with the chance he’d also get traded, they can pick him up now.

• Mychal Givens (Orioles): With Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton traded away, Givens is in line for a handful of Saves.

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