Author Archive

The Shortstop Mine Field

If all goes according to plan, our next round of rankings will be published later today. As you may have guessed, the position du jour is shortstop. As of this writing, only five out of seven sets of rankings have been entered into our handy shared Google doc.

It’s clear we have some deep disagreements about shortstop values. I’m going to break this into two parts – the guys I like more and the guys I like less than my colleagues. I’ll hunt for some meaning behind the madness. Because our rankings are not final, don’t be surprised if any numbers cited wind up slightly incorrect. We still need to address a couple guys who slipped through the cracks in the first run.

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The Starting Pitcher Clusterbomb

We released our composite starting pitcher rankings yesterday. Presently, I’m going to offer my thoughts about the ace-heavy draft pool. If that part doesn’t interest you, skip down to my early mock observations. That part has important strategic implications.

It turns out we all agree on one thing – Clayton Kershaw is the ace of aces. We couldn’t even agree on Mike Trout as the top outfielder. Kershaw’s ranking isn’t a surprise, but it is a testament to his dominance of the field.

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Phillies Playing Time Battles: Hitters

Guess what, we’re still evaluating playing time battles in preparation for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. You can catch up on every team we’ve covered in this post. I already slogged through the Philadelphia Phillies pitchers, so let’s just hammer out the rest of their roster battles.

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Phillies Playing Time Battles: Pitchers

Perhaps you’ve heard, we’re evaluating playing time battles in preparation for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. We’re still at the beginning of the process, but you can go to this post to catch up on all our previous analysis. Now, onto the Philadelphia Phillies whose pitching staff can be epitomized by a shrug.

The Rotation

After suffering through a miserable 2015 season, the Phillies look to be on the rebound. Their starters produced just 4.3 WAR – worst in the majors. Their 5.23 ERA barely outperformed the Rockies (5.27 ERA). Of course, the Phillies didn’t have to regularly pitch at Coors Field. In any case, they’ll be better this year.

Only three regular contributors will return, Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, and Adam Morgan. None of them have a guaranteed job. Let’s start with the two guys who are locks for a role.

Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton are the staff veterans. Hellickson is a solid mid-rotation rebound gamble. After a tough start to his tenure in Arizona, he settled in to post a 3.61 ERA (4.14 xFIP) in the second half of the season.

Morton’s a ground ball specialist who has trouble staying on the field. When he’s right, he’ll produce a peripheral supported sub-4.00 ERA. Both Morton and Hellickson are merely innings eaters, but the team needs that more than an ace.

Behind the pseudo-veterans lurks Nola. It would take a minor disaster for him to lose his claim upon a rotation job, but it’s a risk. Nola, 23 in June, was the Phillies first round pick in 2014 (seventh overall). He made quick work of the minors and showed well in the majors through 13 starts.

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Rankings Are Coming: My Personal Quirks

Very soon, you will be treated to RotoGraphs’ first round of composite rankings for the 2016 draft season. We’ll be starting with outfield and other positions will trickle out over the next 10 business days. Seven of us contributed to this January round of ranking. Six of us agreed that Mike Trout is the top outfielder.

I can never do things the easy way. While I was adding my ranks, I noticed a couple discrepancies between my ranking process and that of the my colleagues. So I asked some questions. As it turns out, I have some weird quirks when it comes to positional ranking.

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The Marlins’ Elite: A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps

Yesterday, we looked in on one of the top closer-setup tandems outside of the Bronx. Zach Britton and Darren O’Day are the best at what they do. As it turns out, the Marlins also have a couple elite relievers who are the very best at something – A.J. Ramos and Carter Capps.

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The Orioles’ Elite: Zach Britton and Darren O’Day

When the eighth and ninth innings roll around, the Orioles will turn to a familiar pair of relief aces. Zach Britton just pitched the best season of his life. In one regard, he is the best player in all of Baseball Land. His setup man, Darren O’Day, is also the very best in his own quirky way.

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I Still Hate Rankings

I told you once, and I’m going to tell you again – I hate rankings. They create a number of disadvantages. Most trivially, rankings help less prepared owners chase down my sleepers too early in the draft. They anchor our valuations of a player to a one-size-fits-all analysis – often without regard to the specific quirks in our own leagues. Perhaps most importantly, rankings can smother creativity in the draft room.

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When Plan A Fails

There’s a saying – nobody cares about your fantasy team. Generally speaking, it’s true. When people in the real world find out I’m a fantasy baseball writer, they’ll start telling me about their team. Usually, they play in a hopelessly shallow format. My eyes glaze over. I nod in the right places. I think about the chores I need to finish in the next few days.

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Does Everybody Own Kyle Schwarber?

I’d like to thank everybody who participated in Monday’s Your Keeper Questions, Answered. As of now, the post has received 422 comments, about 150 of which are me responding to questions. After a jet lag fueled marathon session from 1 to 7 am on Tuesday morning, I’m about tapped out on keeper advice. Feel free to ping me on Twitter (@BaseballATeam) if I didn’t get to your keeper conundrum.

Today, let’s chat about a common keeper option. On the whole, FanGraphs readers appear to have been very likely to acquire certain fresh breakout stars like Mookie Betts, Kris Bryant, Jacob deGrom, and Jake Arrieta. One player who seemed to appear in every question was Kyle Schwarber.

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