The Starting Pitcher Clusterbomb

We released our composite starting pitcher rankings yesterday. Presently, I’m going to offer my thoughts about the ace-heavy draft pool. If that part doesn’t interest you, skip down to my early mock observations. That part has important strategic implications.

It turns out we all agree on one thing – Clayton Kershaw is the ace of aces. We couldn’t even agree on Mike Trout as the top outfielder. Kershaw’s ranking isn’t a surprise, but it is a testament to his dominance of the field.

After Kershaw, you’ll find Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. I happened to rate Jake Arrieta number two, but I don’t necessarily disagree with Scherzer and Sale as excellent consolation prizes to Kershaw. Or Arrieta. Or David Price. Hell, there are 17 non-Kershaw’s I’d happily pick as my staff ace.

From number six Jose Fernandez through number 19 Noah Syndergaard, you have the option to draft a possible top five starting pitcher.* Some of these guys get it done with strikeouts and merely decent control, others are ridiculously good injury risks, and still others use uncommon elite skills and innings volume – like Dallas Keuchel and his worm burn factory.

*I’d punt Jon Lester, ranked 18, from this conversation, but that’s just me.

I’ve created a custom leaderboard with all of the aces after the top three. Above is a static screenshot – here’s the link. As you see, it ranges from an excellent Arrieta season to an elite 11 games from Fernandez (6.3 WAR pace). Hernandez and Strasburg are positive regression candidates. Harvey, deGrom, and Syndergaard should be fully unleashed. If you watched the postseason, you learned that Chris Archer really knows his craft.

That’s what they’ve already done. We don’t exactly care about their 2015 success, except insomuch as it informs our projection models. The point though, is that none of these pitchers should be expected to fall off a cliff. No Shelby Miller’s here. Sure, Arrieta and Greinke probably got lucky. That column on the right is FIP-based WAR. They’re still at the top of the pile with some of their non-HR “luck” stripped away.

If you’re curious about Steamer projections, a sort by RA9-WAR (aka ERA-based WAR), reveals 14 of my 15 selections on the first page. Syndergaard misses the cut for various projection system-y reasons (a sort by vanilla WAR does include Thor).

Strategic Considerations

So, I’ve identified 18 studs. Then there’s a dip into a still-good tier that includes pitchers like Lester, Cole Hamels, Yu Darvish, Adam Wainwright, Johnny Cueto (among many others). That second pool of guys runs until somewhere around the 35th starting pitcher.

An average league has 12 teams. Simple math says there are enough aces for everybody with six to spare. Some enterprising owner is probably going to land three top starters. It’s going to be tough to beat his pitching staff, but hopefully the offensive opportunity cost is steep (or not if it’s you).

There are about three highly regarded pitchers for every team. Some owner is going to land six of them. It’s going to be tough to beat…well you know.

I’ve long been a proponent of the LIMA strategy to roster building. LIMA stands for Low Investment Mound Ace. The strategy is to draft deGrom and Arrieta before they are deGrom and Arrieta. Easy to do in retrospect, not so easy when you’re making February and March picks.

Starting pitchers are usually one of the last positions I target. For me, it’s usually value-pick or bust. Instead of Scherzer, I’d turn to a combination like Clay Buchholz and Carter Capps. I have a soft spot for elite non-closer relievers.

I don’t think that’s a viable strategy this year. With so much good starting pitching on the draft board, no amount of elite relief is going to make a second-class rotation competitive. I’ll be focusing the rest of the spring on developing position player bargains because I know I’m paying for starters.

Mock Observations  

In my early mocks, I’ve noticed a peculiar trend. Both mocks have been on RT Sports mock draft platform which defaults to a deep roster league (five OF, two C, MI, CI, and the normal positions). If you have a shallow roster league, these observations may not apply. Additionally, these could just be quirks from ridiculously early drafts (and just two data points).

Late in the first round, Kershaw will be selected. Everyone will complement the bargain of getting him 11th instead of fourth. Then the second round will pass. And the third round. And then it’s time to draft pitchers. All of them.

In one draft, eight fourth round picks were starting pitchers. In the same draft, seven more starters were picked in the fifth round. In a scenario like this, a fourth round Max Scherzer is relatively more valuable than Kershaw.

Here’s an actual trade off the Kershaw owner could have made. In the fourth round, he picked Carlos Gonzalez. The very next pick was Scherzer. Earlier in the draft, Jose Altuve (1-12), Mookie Betts (2-1), Nolan Arenado (2-2), Manny Machado (2-3), and Kris Bryant (2-4) went immediately after Kershaw. Gimme Machado and Scherzer over Kershaw and CarGo.

Once the pitching flood starts, be ready to jump on the bandwagon. They go fast. However, since there are so many aces, it might be best to focus on position players until somebody else breaks the seal. Eventually, like in the fourth round, the value is just too good to pass up.