On Tuesday, I released my very preliminary rankings for the 2015 draft season. Things will change – really, they will. Until then, we’re left with some odd observations to discuss. I acknowledged my uber-bullish ranking of Carlos Carrasco on Little Christmas, and my bearish ranking of Adam Jones shall provide the content for normal Christmas. Enjoy.
I bared my moderately flawed initial fantasy rankings for public consumption yesterday. Perhaps the most divisive selection is Carlos Carrasco as the fourth ranked starting pitcher.
Remember last week when I complained about the value of fantasy rankings? Specifically, I said I hate them because they represent a backwards approach to roster construction. I readily admit that the frontwards approach, which can be thought of as “know and account for everything,” doesn’t really combine with how the human brain works. That’s why we so readily adopt rankings.
Are you ready to be shocked? I’m having trouble selling my $3 Alex Rodriguez. Also my $7 Billy Hamilton, $5 Shane Victorino, $4 Jesse Chavez, and $4 Neftali Feliz to name a few. Unsurprisingly, nobody is busting down my door to own my collection of down-roster bench fodder. Yet I’m pretty sure a guy like Victorino will go for more than $5 on draft day. Somebody will pony up for the latest shot at a Hamilton breakout. My inability to find back end starters has me ready to keep Chavez for myself. Essentially, I’m confident there is cause for somebody to keep these players, even if they possess a second order sort of value.
This puts me in a bit of a pickle. My latest roster tinker session has me at 29 roster spots (of 40) and $286 (of $400) committed to players I consider to be my core. I need a starting third baseman, some kind of middle infielder, and a couple starting pitchers. And then there are the gobbledygooks. I have something like 13 of them. Nine of them, like Victorino, are on what I consider keepable prices – in a fringy sort of sense. The others might still be somebody else’s keeper.
I’m not sure I’ve seen this before. As of this writing, the Padres have either completed or began finalizing five trades in the last 48 hours. I feel like we’re living inside a copy of MVP ’05. The Padres are positioned to make still more trades to alleviate a roster crunch. Seth Smith, Carlos Quentin, Cameron Maybin, Will Venable, and Yonder Alonso are currently looking at just three or four spots. Somebody has to go. Then there’s Tim Federowicz, whose role with the club may have been co-opted by the David Ross signing. The Friars have also shown a willingness to re-package players, so we could see an unexpected swap involving Wil Myers, Derek Norris, Justin Upton, Will Middlebrooks, or even Matt Kemp.
Fantasy baseball analysts look for a couple things in a four-seam fastball: how fast is it, and where is it located? Generally speaking, we want to answer the the first question to be “pretty darned fast.” Our view of the second question has changed in recent years. With the emergence of pitchers like Collin McHugh and Sean Doolittle, we’ve learned that locating in the top of the strike zone can be an excellent pathway to strikeouts and hence good results.
I recently signed on as an editor with a great up-and-coming site. One of my first assignments is to compile rankings for the 2015 season. As an editor whose compensation is tied to site activity, rankings are my best friends. The denizens of readerland LOVE rankings. As somebody who’s trying to build a new fantasy brand, well-done rankings are an excellent vehicle. As a fantasy player, I have serious reservations about the whole process.
The White Sox were busy conscripting new talent these last few weeks. While the club still has weaknesses, the top of the rotation is well-addressed with Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija, and the topic of today’s analysis, Jose Quintana. He’s coming off a season in which he threw over 200 innings with nine wins, 178 strikeouts, a 3.32 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. You might be surprised to learn the total package was worth only $5. Per FantasyPros, his average cost was just $2, so his owners still made a decent bargain.
A couple weeks ago, I covered the ever-fascinating topic of rebuilding. The crux of my rebuild strategy is to target valuable major league talent rather than a boatload of prospects. Your season will be more fun, and you can trade your talent for the best building blocks during the season. Now it’s time to look at the opposite perspective of the rebuild – going for broke.
In yesterday’s Corey Kluber article, a commenter pointed out a Steamer quirk – only three starting pitchers are projected for a sub-3.00 ERA. Last season, 22 qualified pitchers finished the year under the 3.00 benchmark. If you set the threshold at 50 innings pitched, 39 starters were below a 3.00 ERA. Clearly Steamer is crazy. Right? I mean, we have to expect a lot more than three pitchers to demonstrate excellence.
