Ottoneu Strategy: Going For Broke

A couple weeks ago, I covered the ever-fascinating topic of rebuilding. The crux of my rebuild strategy is to target valuable major league talent rather than a boatload of prospects. Your season will be more fun, and you can trade your talent for the best building blocks during the season. Now it’s time to look at the opposite perspective of the rebuild – going for broke.

First, I want to clarify that “going for broke” is different than “going for it.” This is probably intuitive, but going for broke refers to trading all your chips for one last push. As I so often do, I’ll use my own roster to illustrate.

I’m in the going for it phase of roster construction. My team has a potent mix of underpriced players across the board. I currently plan to keep 31 players. Of those who cost more than $5, only one – $55 Mike Trout – can be described as full price. If you want to contend, it never hurts to have the best player in the sport on your roster. Especially if you also have a $36 Paul Goldschmidt – currently the consensus second pick. The reason I’m not going for broke is because I can use the core of this roster to compete again in 2016. Even after another round of arbitration, Goldschmidt, $21 Corey Kluber, $22 Yasiel Puig, and $5 George Springer should remain keepable while shielding the others on my team.

I point out the distinction between the two types of contention because it’s important to recognize when it’s appropriate to spend your last few assets. You must ask yourself, “Is my roster viable beyond this season?” If you’re counting on mostly full price players to provide the backbone of your team, then chances are you’re in a position to go for it.

Once you determine it’s now or never, you have to build a game plan and execute it. Let’s say you own a $6 Christian Yelich. The multi-season contender may hoard Yelich. I see him as somebody with a touch of Michael Brantley. Rather than sell now, I want to see if he can build additional value by hitting more fly balls and cutting down on strikeouts. If you’re only looking at the 2015 season, it might be time to exchange Yelich for somebody who looks more productive this year.

At this point, you have two options. An offseason trade will allow you to maximize the return in stats, but you’ll be burdened with a contract. A post-draft trade will return less production, but you can more easily manage the budget component. The option you choose will depend on your financial situation as well as what’s available. Maybe you get an offer of $15 Jon Lester in the offseason and decide that’s enough. Or perhaps you’d rather target a Kershaw type on a non-contending team after the draft. Like I said, it’s up to you and what’s available in your league.

One important consideration – you don’t have to do all of your buying prior to the season. Every year, there are teams who think they will contend, only to fail miserably. Sometimes, those same teams will embark on a true fire sale, discarding great players for pennies on the dollar. I’ve seen otherwise good fantasy players trade top 25 players for a handful of marginal prospects because they have to do something. Anybody with an iota of patience can snag a handful of $1 or $2 prospects over the course of an ottoneu season. So there are two lessons in this paragraph – be patient and acquire marketable minor leaguers.

Ultimately, it’s probably too soon for most of you to know if it’s time to blow it all on one last spending spree. That decision is often made mid-season, when the leader is only 400 points ahead, and bargains can be found on the trade market. If you’re able to make the call now, you may be able to leverage a slight advantage over your leaguemates.