An interesting question came through the interwebbings in general and the rotographs mailbag in particular:

Normally, it is the other owners who panic and drop someone good but struggling, and I pick them up. But Gordon Beckham hasn’t done much of anything so far this season. There has been no stretch to give me hope. I am buoyed by the fact that he has 9 walks in recent games, but the 8 K’s that go along with it is still on the high side, and in any case, walks don’t count in my league and he isn’t hitting for much of anything.

Mike Aviles, Ian Desmond, Alberto Callaspo, and Starlin Castro are all available on my waiver wire. I already have Ben Zobrist and Elvis Andrus filling MI positions plus Pablo Sandoval manning 3B, so I’m covered while Beckham struggles. I need HR and RBI and thus why I hold onto Beckham so far. What do you recommend?

-M

This is a unique situation. While M is “set” at middle infield, Zobrist and Sandoval are struggling and holding on to Beckham means those players have to start through the struggles. If M wants to keep on chugging, he’d be best served by picking up one of the hotter middle infielders on the wire – most likely one of the Royals. But even if this is the move, who is the dropper? He’d want to drop the guy with the least upside, in order to keep upside on the bench. And since Panda and Andrus are virtually dripping with upside, we turn to Zobrist and Beckham as the most likely droppers. Let’s compare them to Aviles and Callaspo to get an idea of where to go. (For those touting Castro, I’ll say that the .111 minor league ISO removes him from home run consideration despite the hot streak so far.)

Let’s begin by using the ZiPs RoS projections as an eyeball test:

Zobrist .263/.356/.431 with 11 HR, 11 SB
Beckham .257/.330/.422 with 14 HR, 8 SB

Aviles .284/.313/.412 with 6 HR, 4 SB
Callaspo .293/.347/.427 with 7 HR, 2 SB

The eyeball test says he’s got the players with the most upside on his team right now. Though the batting averages of the guys on the wire are useful, M owns Fat Ichiro and would seemingly not need batting average as much as the counting stats. In fact, that may end the discussion right there… if not for the interim problem of being stuck with two struggling middle infielders, and the question of Beckham.

We’ve talked about how few statistics are significant in such a small sample size, but it’s the swing rates that stabilize the quickest. Well, Beckham is reaching slightly more (28.9% this year, 24.8% last year), but he’s swinging about the same overall (46.0% this year, 46.9% last year) and making similar contact (79.7% this year, 80.1% last year). The reaching is a little worrisome, but Beckham has always been a reasonably disciplined hitter with average walk rates (7.3% in the minors, 11.6% in college), and the difference is not so great that it suggests that Beckham is broken.

Instead, let’s point to two numbers that stabilize the slowest that suggest that Beckham will be okay. He owns a .241 BABIP (.279 career) and a .061 ISO (.160 career), and both of those numbers take more than 400+ plate appearances to become significant.

In this last bit of analysis lies the last wrinkle: Beckham has just barely passed the career threshold to make his ISO significant. In other words, he’s just now accrued enough plate appearances that his .160 career ISO predicts his future ISO at a 70% level. He did have a .197 ISO in the minor leagues, but he wouldn’t be the first player to experience a power dip upon entering the bigs. Since his speed is suspect (60% success rate career), if his power takes a dive, he’s obviously the dropper on this team. So M, if you are feeling antsy and want some batting average in the short term, it all depends on how strong your stomach is. But you’ve got all the upside on your team currently, and that’s usually the best way to go.

We’ll try to avoid breaking any unwritten rules by jumping right into the waiver wire post. Be nice to us Dallas Braden – we know little about this nebulous code of conduct.

Edwin Encarnacion | 3B | Blue Jays (5% owned)
There are plenty of flaws in double-E’s game, starting with the most problematic of the bunch (and source of his nickname) – his defense. He owns a -20.7 career UZR/150 at his position, and there’s little doubt he’s limited with the leather. It may end up costing him time with the Jays as they see him boot more soft grounders. Even with the bat, he’s pretty average. His career walk rate (9.1%), strikeout rate (20.6%), reach rate (24%), and contact percentage (80%) are all pretty right on the major league averages in those categories. But the reason you’d pick up double-E is his power, as he’s hit 26 home runs in a season before. You may then be surprised to hear that his career ISO (.188) is not far above average either (.155 most years). Then again, there are plenty of leagues where an average bat at an infield position is very valuable. So there’s that.

Kris Medlen | SP/RP | Braves (3% owned)
It’s not too often that a prospect follows Medlen’s career path. He debuted in pro ball with the Braves as a reliever and immediately blew the doors off the first three levels he encountered with a strikeout rate over twelve and a walk rate below two. Even in only 69 innings, an FIP around two is impressive. I guess the Braves wanted to see if they could get a few more innings out of their nice arm, and they began starting him. He responded with a 9.0 K/9 and a 2.0 BB/9 in double-A. So of course the Braves then called him up as a reliever and the resulting 3.67 xFIP in his first 89.2 innings is major league history. Now the Braves are calling on him to start again with Jair Jurrjens out longer than expected, and if history is to be believed, Medlen can handle the challenge. If he pitches like he has before, he may even hold onto the job when JJj comes back – it’s not like Kenshin Kawakami is using all those K’s on the league. Most deep leagues could use a flier like Medlen, especially since he pitches in the weaker league. Guess that makes me a little more optimistic about his future than Mike Axisa was just yesterday.

Michael Saunders | OF | Mariners (0% owned)
Like with Encarnacion before, Saunders comes with warts despite being named the Mariners’ number one prospect by Marc Hulet this offseason. His 27.8% strikeout percentage in the minor leagues leaps off the page. Also, if you adjust his career minor league line for park and luck using MinorLeagueSplits.com, you get an unispiring .273/.358/.430 line. His .165 ISO in the minors is not very impressive either (the major league average is usually around .155). Last but not least, Saunders showed a platoon split most years in the minor leagues. Excited yet? The good news is that Saunders has shown some incremental improvement in his strikeout rate in 2009 and 2010. He’s also still young-ish (23) and his power is trending upwards. He should play against righties with Milton Bradley out indefinitely and Ken Griffey caught napping in the clubhouse during games, who knows. He will probably get at-bats all year.

Since outfielders are so bountiful, it makes sense to create some tiers. We’ll start these rankings at 17, which means that the first outfielder may be an OF1 in most leagues, but we’ll still be able to delve a little deeper than we have to date. Once again, to-date wOBA plus ZiPS RoS wOBA is listed.

Worst of the Best?
1. Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.390 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
2. B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay (.328 wOBA, .339 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
3. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles (.484 wOBA, .414 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
4. Adam Lind, Toronto (.323 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
5. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.345 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
6. Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles (.343 wOBA, .361 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Jayson Werth and Andre Ethier moved up into the OF1 rankings with their strong play in the early goings. Adam Lind and Manny Ramirez moved down because of mediocre play and old age, though Lind could still get it going – he just needs to find his power and stop striking out so much. Neither of those things becomes significant in a short sample. That fact should temper our enthusiasm for McCutchen a tiny bit, though, since there is still no guarantee that he will retain all the power gains he’s made in the past year-plus. As an aside, it’s a little silly to hear about how few times Manny Ramirez has gone on the DL. We all know he’s old and injury-prone at this point. 2008 aside, he’s the kind of guy that misses time here and there but has “somehow” avoided the DL.

Still Strong
7. Adam Dunn, Chicago (.387 wOBA, .393 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
8. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago (.435 wOBA, .370 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
9. Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.358 wOBA, .366 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
10. Michael Bourn, Houston (.363 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
11. Denard Span, Minnesota (.354 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.294 wOBA, .351 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the boring-as-vanilla tier for the most part (but to be fair, it does seem that Haagen-Dazs Vanilla with strawberries is the nectar of the gods). Carlos Quentin is making it harder to believe in him every day, but he’s having some BABIP problems and we can hope that power comes back still. Not too late for him to turn it around and have a decent year. Soriano’s resurgence takes him from afterthought to solid OF2, which is actually sort of an amazing thing with how bad he’s looked in the recent past.

What’s Going On?
14. Jason Heyward, Atlanta (.439 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Alex Rios, Chicago (.384 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Chase Headley, San Diego (.378 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Adam Jones, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
13. Carlos Lee, Houston (.230 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Yup, as boring as the tier above was, this tier is full of rock-em-sock-em peaks and valleys. Is Jason Heyward really an OF2 already? Will he be a top tier OF1 by the end of the year? He’s really surpassing even the most precocious of young stars with his performance to date. The best news is that he’s making adjustments on breaking balls. Alex Rios, Chase Headley? Finally? And Adam Jones and Carlos Lee may not be remotely close in terms of career arc, but they are looking in the same closet for their lost games. Hopefully for their owners they will find what they are looking for.

For Reals? Really Reals?
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.419 wOBA, .342 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Austin Jackson, Detroit (.414 wOBA, .307 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York (.415 wOBA, .330 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Marlon Byrd, Chicago (.422 wOBA, .363 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Vernon Wells, Toronto (.440 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Marlon Byrd has to count as the most surprising player in this tier full of surprises. There aren’t enough words for this space to unpack all that’s going on here, but you’ll see analysis on these guys here at FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. I promise.

This update will have to-date wOBA with RoS projections, too!

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.445 wOBA, .414 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.310 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.380 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.459 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Nothing to report here, other than an ongoing battle to determine the best real-life young second baseman in the American League, with Boston and New York in distinct camps. It seems that once you include defense the battle shifts north slightly but significantly. For our purposes, it’s nice to note Cano’s strong batted ball profile and career-high flyball percentage, which should both serve him well this year.

The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.295 wOBA, .336 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.384 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.326 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.327 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.317 wOBA, .351 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.255 wOBA, .359 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

There’s some movement here because Roberts is still out and Zobrist is still swinging a limp noodle. Hill lost some ISO too, but he could still put up 2007 stats and be very helpful at this position. The biggest news is the debut of Ian Stewart in this tier. Stewart cut the K’s without losing the power, which means he could have a nicer batting average this year. Since the power and speed are tantalizing, he’s the real streaking youth on this list.

Streaking Youth:
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.369 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.433 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
14. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.280 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Look at what we have here. Kelly Johnson actually bests Ian Stewart by jumping two tiers and streaking right into the upside tier. If he had some speed he might even blow by Weeks, who is doing his customary batting average slump currently but still has his power and speed combo to boast of. Beckham is in danger of dropping out of this tier right here, because he is pressing and striking out too often and just doesn’t look great at the plate right now.

The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.327 wOBA, .340 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.300 wOBA, .337 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
16. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.353 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Call this the no-power no-speed tier. These guys really should have Martin Prado in here too. Not sure what else to say, really, except that Polanco has a healthy offense around him that boosts his value.

Upside to Join the Top:
17. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.392 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.371 wOBA, .349 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
19. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.361 wOBA, .340 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
20. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.237 wOBA, .312 ZiPs Ros wOBA)
21. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.432 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
22. Chris Getz, Kansas City (.237 wOBA, .316 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Once your season-long power slump is bad enough that it starts affecting your ZiPs RoS projections, it has to be noted. Jose Lopez isn’t even projected to put up his career ISO the rest of the way, so it’s looking like it might be a bad year for him. Because he’s shown more power in the past than Callaspo, he will probably outperform Callaspo… probably. At least the Royals showed confidence in Callaspo by demoting Alex Gordon. (That’s what they were doing, right?) I also know at least one commenter that will be happy to see Chris Getz on this list, and with 2% ownership in Yahoo, he might still be out there for the taking. He could still best his .275/20 SB projections because most of his slump so far looks BABIP-induced.

I’ll do one shallow league guy just because he’s heating up and I’ve seen him on some wires, but then it’s back to the deep leagues of course. This triptych of ineptitude may leave you with a bad taste in your mouth, but there’s utility here despite their warts.

Nate McLouth | OF | Braves (50% owned)
It’s a mixed bag with McLouth, who was already behind the eight ball in leagues that count batting average. Since swing rates stabilize first, we’ll take a look there – and find the numbers going in different directions. Overall, he’s swinging a lot less this year (34.7%) than in his career overall (40.1%), but it’s hard to say that’s a negative right off the bat. Swinging less could, for example, lead to more selectivity and more walks. Accordingly, McLouth is reaching less (20.4%) than he has in his career (21.2%), and walking at a career high rate (14.3%). And that’s good. What’s bad is that his contact rate is down (81.3% this year, 85.4% career). In any case, more contextual clues lead to some hope. A week ago, McLouth had been dropped to 8th in the order and wasn’t playing against lefties. Though 478 at-bats against lefties is hardly an opus, his .702 OPS against lefties is close to a disasterpiece. Count it as hope that McLouth has been moved back to leadoff against righties, and you’ll get yourself a lifetime .818 OPS hitter against that hand. As long as you have daily lineups, and can wait for righties, he’s a good pickup.

Delmon Young | OF | Twins (15% owned)
Yes, I know. Hold your nose. Young is not the dynamic star that was once prognosticated for him. He’s very flawed. He doesn’t have much power. But this isn’t to say that he hasn’t improved. In fact, his swing profile includes some improvement in virtually every category. For such a wild swinger, swinging less has to be a positive – and Young is swinging less (54.7% this year, 61.2% career). He’s reaching at a career-low rate (36.8%), and this improvement is particularly informative because it’s part of a trend. He’s improved his reach rate in every season in the bigs. The best news is that his contact rate is up big (79.9% this year, 75.3% career) at the same time. He still swings at bad pitches too often, and his power is just barely above average, but there’s a good chance that he retains the gains he’s made in the early going. Though it’s not yet significant, it’s nice to note that he’s sporting a career high in flyball rate right now, and a .290/20/10 season is not out of reach. The hardest part will be following the lineups to make sure he’s playing.

Steve Pearce | 1B | Pittsburgh (0% owned)
Is another major league team about to give up on Jeff Clement? When is a good time to cut your losses and give up on a player? Did the Pirates already give up on Pearce before Clement? These are all good questions that won’t be answered here. Instead, we’ll just report that Pearce was recalled today and is on the major league roster. Though he’s shown a platoon split in the major leagues (.920 OPS versus lefties, .607 vs righties), those have come in a mere 378 plate appearances total. The same split is not as pronounced in the minors (.929 vs lefties, .871 vs righties) and virtually disappeared in his hot 2010 start (.353/.456/.612 overall). Maybe he’ll get some starts at first base against lefties, or maybe he’ll steal some time from the scuffling Lastings Milledge. It’s worth stowing a guy with a .889 career minor league OPS in about 2000 at-bats, especially when he’s just turned 27 and has a fire under his behind.

Ownership rates courtesy Yahoo Fantasy Sports.

Today while Andruw Jones is busting out the whoop-stick, we’ll bust out the in-season wOBA (and add ZiPS Ros wOBA) and go back to see what’s going on at shortstop. Enjoy the weekend!

The Big Four:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.349 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.338 wOBA, .362 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.526 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.381 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

If the season ended today, Jeter would have the best ISO he’s had in eleven years(!), so it’s safe to say that he may even approach his career high in home runs this year (24). A twenty-twenty season would make Jeter a solid top option, and depending on Rollins’ final batting average and steals total, and Tulowitzki’s home run total, he may even be a top-3 shortstop by the end of the year. Not bad for a guy that went at the end of the third round in the spring.

The Next Best Thing:
5. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.285 wOBA, .361 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.377 wOBA, .341 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
7. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.369 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.344 wOBA, .342 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
9. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.322 wOBA, .352wOBA)
10. Jason Bartlett, Tampa Bay (.306 wOBA, .333 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Elvis Andrus and Rafael Furcal are the big winners this week. Furcal moves up just by being healthy another two weeks and stealing a few bases, while Andrus is doing some really nice things in this young season. He’s got a great line drive percentage and is walking 17% of the time – there’s a chance he betters his batting average yet. Also, he’s stolen enough bases to say that he could easily best his ZiPS updated projection of 35 steals. If he can nudge that average up just a little higher, he has the upside left to lead this tier, or at least join Drew and Reyes at the top.

Bartlett falls and is honestly in danger of dropping from this tier entirely. His ZiPS updated projection only calls for a .280 average and 19 steals now, and those aren’t scintillating numbers. The worst thing about his season so far is that most of his secondary statistics are more in line with his pre-2009 career. Zobrist enters the list ahead of him because he still has more power upside even if he’s not showing it right now.

The Leftovers:
11. Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland (.324 wOBA, .335 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
12. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.364 wOBA, .341 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.324 wOBA, .355 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Ryan Theriot, Cubs (.339 wOBA, .333 ZIPS RoS wOBA)
15. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.242 wOBA, .327 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
16. Alcides Escobar, Milwaukee (.300 wOBA, .315 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Though there is a lot of movement in this tier, the big news here is that Erick Aybar drops off the list. I know he was moving up in the ranking, and I was guilty of the same sort of Aybar love in the pre-season, but a frank look at his statistics doesn’t offer much hope for his traditional roto stats this year. See, the thing is, he obviously has almost no power (.096 ISO career) and even his speed is suspect. He only came up with 14 steals last year, one so far this year, and his speed score is currently below average. If he doesn’t better last year’s steals total, has no power, and is now showing that his batting average is also no given, well, then, he’s not so interesting, is he? I’ll take Escobar’s upside because of his wheels, even if he doesn’t yet have a stolen base.

Theriot’s strong play (though utterly powerless (.050 ISO)) earns him a spot on the list at the cost of the scuffling Yunel Escobar. The other (other) Escobar’s lack of real power or speed, and his steps back in batted ball profile, limit his upside anyway.

Today, we’ll go with a diptych of guys that should be available in your league. Their upside is limited, but there are reasons to like em.

Blake DeWitt | 2B, 3B | Dodgers (1% owned)
He’s got no power, hits for a middling average and doesn’t steal a base. So he’s got those things going for him. Why pick up DeWitt? Well, for one, he’s playing almost every day – 18 of the Dodger’s 22 games. Another nice thing about DeWitt is his patience. He’s finally showing the patience that got him a .349 OBP in Albuquerque last year, and the stick control that produced more walks than strikeouts that same year. Swing rates, because of their high number per AB, become significant earlier than most stats. DeWitt is swinging less (41.6% this year, 42.4% last year) and making more contact (88.6% last year and 93.9% this year). A 17% walk rate and .390 OBP probably won’t continue, but a double-digit walk rate and decent OBP plays well in the right league and are achievable thresholds. We now have 470 career ABs for DeWitt, though, and a 3.3 speed score and .117 ISO mean that the power and speed don’t look to be developing much. Ironically, someone like a young Ronnie Belliard seems to be his ceiling.

Edward Mujica | SP, RP | Padres (3% owned)
Here’s another guy with warts for you! (You’re welcome.) Mujica probably won’t start, and he probably won’t close. Since the Padres haven’t gone to him in high leverage situations yet (0.69 gmLI), he’s only even racked up two holds. But there are reasons to enjoy Mujica’s game (and name). Ever since he added his split finger pitch and moved to the bullpen, he’s been lights out (his name has always sounded great). His strikeout rate since he started using the splitty over 20% of the time has been close to eight per nine and his walk rate below two per nine. The pitch itself is nice – 3.89 runs per 100 pitches – and it adds to his overall mix in a great way. Batters are reaching more than ever (31.3%) and making less contact than ever (70.5%). Plus, it’s just one of those pitches that breaks MLB pitch f/x, like the Mike Pelfrey split-change. You have to root for a pitch like that.

Yesterday, we took a look at the guys that might replace Trevor Hoffman if he goes down with injury. Today, it’s time to look at another old dude poorly plying his trade at the back end of a bullpen – Octavio Dotel.

Dotel was a medium-priced low-risk signing that they could move out of the closer’s role without too much backlash, but the Bucs could also gain from pumping his value up and trading him to a contender, so they may give him some leash yet. He’s still doing his high-walk, high-strikeout thing, and is obviously suffering from his .456 BABIP-induced bad luck. His xFIP of 4.49 does not induce a ton of confidence on the other hand. His walks have been trending north for a while now, and he’s giving up over two home runs per nine right now. He could lose the role.

As with yesterday, we’ll run a few stats out for each contender. It seems that gmLI is a decent proxy for “Manager’s Confidence,” as it measures the leverage index of the situation at the point of the game when the pitcher enters. A higher gmLI means that the manager is consistently putting a player into the game in tough situations. As Brian Joura pointed out in the upcoming podcast, that could just be a relic of a manager’s static bullpen roles (he always pitches a certain guy in the 7th, and there have just happened to be a ton of high-leverage situations in the 7th this year), but a check of the leaderboard shows some of the better non-closer pitchers rank highly in gmLI. Also, we used holds plus saves over holds plus saves plus blown saves because a blown hold results in a blown save and that stat seems to better represent the save % for a pitcher who has been both a closer and a setup man.

Evan Meek 0.64 ERA, 2.85 xFIP, 4.23 career xFIP, 4/6 career holds+saves / opps, 0.69 2010 gmLI
DJ Carrasco 5.00 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 4.47 career xFIP, 19/27 career holds+saves / opps, 0.87 2010 gmLI
Joel Hanrahan 9.95 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 4.36 career xFIP, 28/37 career holds+saves / opps, 0.82 2010 gmLI
Javier Lopez 3.38 ERA, 6.52 xFIP, 4.51 career xFIP, 67/74 career holds+saves / opps, 0.95 2010 gmLI
Jack Taschner 4.91 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 5.01 career xFIP, 33/42 career holds+saves / opps, 0.29 2010 gmLI
Brendan Donnelly 7.00 ERA, 6.19 xFIP, 4.07 career xFIP, 106/116 career holds+saves / opps, 1.37 2010 gmLI

Um, yeah, that’s a pretty terrible bullpen. And a terrible team that can barely get a high leverage situation to their relievers at all. Looks like the manager likes Donnelly’s experience, but he’s not providing results, and his career xFIP is not that much better than the obvious front-runner, Evan Meek. Lopez just has too poor a split vs righties to use as a closer (5.03 xFIP, 3.95 K/9 vs righties), and everyone else is scuffling. Taschner might be considered competition for Meek if only his gmLI was any higher. Looks like he’s got mop-up duty right now. Hanrahan is the only one that has been a closer, but he wasn’t especially good at it and almost has a double-digit ERA right now.

Meek was pretty good last year and cut his walk rate in half so far this year. He’s the best Dotel insurance and a sure-fire pickup in deeper leagues right now.

Trevor Hoffman just blew his fourth save of the season in seven chances. He has already given up six home runs this year, a number which he has only surpassed once in the last nine years. Nine years. He’s not walking anybody still, but he’s also not striking anybody out (4.5 per nine).

The pitching mix is off. It’s hard to tell if it’s just a sample size thing, but all of a sudden Hoffman is actually favoring his 85 MPH “heater” over his changeup (+43.4 runs career), and it’s not doing him any favors. Why is he throwing the changeup at a career low rate (17.8% this year, 29% career)? It could be injury, and a DL stint may be on the way.

Time for a little rampant speculation for his replacement. Here are the candidates, with some relevant statistical information.

LaTroy Hawkins, 8.62 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 3.79 career xFIP, 225/277 career holds+saves / opps, 1.20 2010 gmLI
Carlos Villanueva, 0.00 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 4.19 career xFIP, 44/51 career holds+saves / opps, 0.83 2010 gmLI
Todd Coffey, 3.72 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 3.99 career xFIP, 67/79 career holds+saves / opps, 0.72 2010 gmLI

Coffey isn’t killing it right now, and he doesn’t have a great history of racking up saves when given the chance. His career xFIP is pretty good, but just judging from when his manager is choosing to use him this year, he doesn’t seem like the guy.

Villanueva, on the other hand, is killing it this year and also took up the closer mantle late last year when Hoffman went down. His career xFIP is misleading, as he’s racked up 27 starts worth of innings which most definitely had a higher xFIP than he’s put up as a reliever. Brian Joura just talked him up two days ago as a good dark horse candidate for saves. In fact, he might be my choice for closing… if I were running the Brewers.

Unfortunately, I am not. (I mean unfortunately for me, I don’t pretend to know exactly what is right for the Brewers in this situation.) Instead, it seems most likely to be LaTroy Hawkins, who incidentally also owns the highest salary of the group. Despite a poor ERA, Hawkins has been performing right around his career levels. But most importantly, his manager is running him out there in important situations. He has the highest leverage index upon entering games (gmLI), and it seems we could use that as a proxy for “Manager Confidence” in this case. Hawkins looks like the pickup if you are speculatin’.

Time to update the second basemen, using Fans’ projected wOBAs for another week. Huzzah!

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.402 wOBA)
2. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.358 wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.360 wOBA)
4. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.370 wOBA)

Not too much to say here really, though it seems that Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano have probably moved past Brian Roberts for good by proving, at the very least, that they have not yet peaked. Roberts’ back issues may affect him all year long and dampen his speed, and the younger two guys are showing sweet power right now.

The Middling Veterans:
5. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.347 wOBA)
6. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.356 wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.354 wOBA)
8. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.408 wOBA)
9. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.357 wOBA)
10. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.337 wOBA)

To be honest, it’s hard not to continue dropping Roberts further, but at least he’s in the right tier now. Chone Figgins has had bigger steals years more recently than him and belongs ahead of him anyway. In this week’s edition of Small Sample Size Surprises, Dan Uggla has maintained his overall power while striking out and walking about at about half of his 2009 rates. The most worrisome thing about Ben Zobrist’s poor start is his reduced walk rate, but even if the power regresses from last year’s probable peak, he’ll retain good value at shortstop.

Streaking Youth:
11. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.361 wOBA)
12. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.365 wOBA)
13. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.337 wOBA)

Gordon Beckham isn’t exactly streaking to the fore, but he’s still got the upside to move up the list. In the early going, he’s striking out and walking at almost the exact same rate as last year, but reduced power and a poor BABIP are holding him down. ZiPS RoS is still optimistic though. Rickie Weeks looks like he may be in the midst of a career year. While it’s early going, and his BABIP is unsustainable, there’s a lot to like in Weeks this year – he’s combining his best walk rate with his best strikeout rate and his highest ISO, but all three numbers are close to his career norms. Seems organic. The same can be said about Ian Stewart – his current career-best K% is closer to his minor league number than one might expect after last year’s whiffing. His bat is showing light-tower power at this point, too. All three of these guys have a great shot of outperforming the Middling Veterans.

The Leftovers:
14. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.321 wOBA)
15. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.341 wOBA)
16. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.325 wOBA)
17. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.342 wOBA)

This group is pretty meh. Polanco looks to be enjoying the new park, but who knows how many home runs that will translate into. He’s a good contributor in runs and RBI though. Howie Kendrick is doing what we thought he could, but it’s still not going to mean a lot of home runs or steals.

Upside to Join the Top:
18. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.330 wOBA)
19. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.341 wOBA)
20. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.338 wOBA)
21. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.347 wOBA)
22. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.332 wOBA)

Casey McGehee probably deserves a post of his own, but there are still reasons for skepticism. That he’s showing this level of power for a prolonged period of time is, to say the least, unexpected. Kelly Johnson is showing that his poor 2009 was mostly poor BABIP-driven and is enjoying his new team. Alberto Callaspo is disappearing off of waiver wires currently, but Ty Wigginton that also deserves some attention. He’s got a little pop and everyday at-bats right now and is a great short-term add.