Who Might Replace Trevor Hoffman?
Trevor Hoffman just blew his fourth save of the season in seven chances. He has already given up six home runs this year, a number which he has only surpassed once in the last nine years. Nine years. He’s not walking anybody still, but he’s also not striking anybody out (4.5 per nine).
The pitching mix is off. It’s hard to tell if it’s just a sample size thing, but all of a sudden Hoffman is actually favoring his 85 MPH “heater” over his changeup (+43.4 runs career), and it’s not doing him any favors. Why is he throwing the changeup at a career low rate (17.8% this year, 29% career)? It could be injury, and a DL stint may be on the way.
Time for a little rampant speculation for his replacement. Here are the candidates, with some relevant statistical information.
LaTroy Hawkins, 8.62 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 3.79 career xFIP, 225/277 career holds+saves / opps, 1.20 2010 gmLI
Carlos Villanueva, 0.00 ERA, 2.62 xFIP, 4.19 career xFIP, 44/51 career holds+saves / opps, 0.83 2010 gmLI
Todd Coffey, 3.72 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 3.99 career xFIP, 67/79 career holds+saves / opps, 0.72 2010 gmLI
Coffey isn’t killing it right now, and he doesn’t have a great history of racking up saves when given the chance. His career xFIP is pretty good, but just judging from when his manager is choosing to use him this year, he doesn’t seem like the guy.
Villanueva, on the other hand, is killing it this year and also took up the closer mantle late last year when Hoffman went down. His career xFIP is misleading, as he’s racked up 27 starts worth of innings which most definitely had a higher xFIP than he’s put up as a reliever. Brian Joura just talked him up two days ago as a good dark horse candidate for saves. In fact, he might be my choice for closing… if I were running the Brewers.
Unfortunately, I am not. (I mean unfortunately for me, I don’t pretend to know exactly what is right for the Brewers in this situation.) Instead, it seems most likely to be LaTroy Hawkins, who incidentally also owns the highest salary of the group. Despite a poor ERA, Hawkins has been performing right around his career levels. But most importantly, his manager is running him out there in important situations. He has the highest leverage index upon entering games (gmLI), and it seems we could use that as a proxy for “Manager Confidence” in this case. Hawkins looks like the pickup if you are speculatin’.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I agree with the Villanueva notion. He is by far the best candidiate based on his numbers this year and Hawkins is just a ticking time bomb. Hoffman should be on the DL within the week clearing up some room for Carlos (hopefully) to start closing some games.
I have read some on Hoffman’s pitch selection and he is staying away from his changeup. But no evidence to suggest why. Im sure the brewers wish this could be solved with rest and a lil bayer. Not likely.
What about a Zach Braddock call up come June? He’s tearing up AAA right now. I know usually managers like to go with proven guys, but this kid has been lights out.
Man, I hate seeing career save opps record for guys who have mostly worked setup in their careers. A non-closer role only gives them the opportunity to blow saves, not to earn them. While it’s certainly important to know that a guy has blown late leads, it seems off to compare those to opportunities where a RP was likely going to get a chance for the save. Just bothers me because people in the media often quote those numbers without that caveat.
I completely agree with you. However, when thinking about relevant stats, saves seemed like they belonged. Then, like stolen bases, I didn’t want to just show the positive without the negative. I’ll work on a good way to represent that part of the stats.
Cool thanks. I’ve always wished there was a better way to judge setup men in the sense that saves vs. blown saves judges closers. Holds are so flimsy and there is no “blown hold”.
Wait I think you jarred something loose. How about Saves + Holds / Saves + Holds + Blown Saves ?
That would tell you how many times the player held a lead of less than three runs in late innings. If you blow a hold, you get a BS!
Not bad right? Will change it up now.
Yeah the formula you put in works for me. Definitely eliminates the curse of the setup man.
Crazy closer volatility. Sort of unrelated but I’d like to get some advice. Do you prefer Qualls or Lindstrom as a closer for the rest of the year: Lindstrom, who appears to have better stuff (velocity wise and PitchFX makes it seem like he’s using much more diversity in his pitches) or Qualls (who appears to have better job security without a $5mil contract waiting in the wings [aka Lyon])?
Thanks.
I drafted Hoffman, Dotel, Mike Gonazelz, and Qualls.
Just about all of them have WHIPS over 2 and ERAS over 9. My team ERA and WHIP is never going to recover from this.
I drafted Frank Francisco and Huston Street as my closers. Also managed tp pick up Cliff Lee, Ian Kinsler and Brian Roberts (all before they went on the DL).
I drafted Hoffman, Francisco, Mike Gonzalez and Jason Frasor. I know “it’s only April” and as bad as these guys have been, they haven’t logged enough innings to truly impact my final ERA/WHIP, but now I have no idea where to get the 90 saves I thought they would give me. What sucks is that I drafted these pitchers over guys like Capps, Lindstrom and Rauch because I thought they were better. Shows what I know.
I would consider punting saves, but my offense isn’t good enough to support that strategy, especially since 2010 Grady Sizemore is furiously destroying my AVG. He killed me in 2009 but now he is playing at a whole new level of badness.
I know fantasy baseball is only a game and injuries/luck amount to 50% of the season, but I spent an absurd amount of time preparing for my draft and my team is terrible…every night is like a kick in the stomach. I need a new hobby…….
I made the mistake of picking up Guerrier instead of Rauch when Nathan went down, going by the numbers. So, of course, I’m going to do the same thing here- I picked up Villanueva.
I also have Peavy and he also has an ERA over 9 and a WHIP over 2. My goodness, maybe it isn’t bad luck. Maybe I just stink at this stuff.
I also passed over Rauch and Capps for some of those other guys I mentioned. I am really regretting that.
Wow 5 guys on the DL? That’s crazy.
It seems like with all of those pitches Villanueva throws he could stick as a starter. That said, his career HR rate is concerning for a closer.
I see Hawkins carrying Ryan Madson-type value the rest of the season. He’s an okay pitcher with an undefined role which is largely dependent on the ability of another veteran to regain his closer form.
Eno, that BS article is one I want to read.
As WMHGANG said above, one of the Brewers’ top prospects is Zach Braddock, a lefty with a great fastball who is the set-up man at AAA currently and figures to earn a promotion to the big league team sometime this season.
It’s more a question of when then if, and he certainly won’t become the Brewers’ closer right away, but he seems destined to at some point(if not this season, then by next season definitely).
In the meantime, all 3 of the other candidates mentioned in this article have been taken in one of my leagues where I need saves, so I might add Braddock in the next month or so since nobody else knows about him. 😉
Maybe Dave Allen should take a look at what’s happening this year compared to what he showed us last year.
I have read that he’s pitching behind in counts more than usual and therefore relying on the fastball more.
They said the same things about Percival last year, “velocity still fine, no changeup” etc. Turns out his velo was “fine” only because his arm was falling off and he was putting everything he had into each pitch. Percival didn’t finish the season.
It really seems to be a location problem with him. He just cannot command his change up at all so far this year. In his last outing he bounced 4 of them in front of the plate showing a complete lack of control.
I took Soriano, Francisco, and Lindstrom as I was at the turn of a 12 team draft and missed on a closer run that saw most of the “cheap saves” guys go before it got to me. Was looking ugly in that department for a bit but Francisco looks to be gaining ground on Feliz and the other two have done well now that they’ve gotten opportunities. Don’t think anyone in the Milwaukee bunch is available so I’ll have to see if I can grab the wrong guy in Pitt for when Dotel finishes imploding.
If you’re using career numbers, isn’t FIP better than xFIP?
Using league average HR rates makes sense for small sample sizes/single seasons, but pitchers do have some control over it, so as the sample gets bigger doesn’t FIP becomes better?
Depends on what park the players played in. If one pitched in San Diego and another in Texas you would probably still want to normalize the HR rates. But in general FIP is marginally better with huge samples and xFIP is way better with small samples.