This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.

For our third over/under game, let’s take a look at Mike Trout and Bryce Harper.

The over/under for today’s game is an either/or: Trout or Harper. As in, which player would you want if you were starting a new keeper league today and had the first pick? First, kudos for rigging the game in your favor. Second, I hope it’s an ottoneu league. Third — which one are you taking?

One’s got wheels of steal and surprising pop. The other has light-tower power and the eye blacks of a champion. One is in a crowded outfield but has the ability to contribute in every category. The other has no roadblocks but may be more of your traditional slugger. If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult David Golebiewski’s excellent piece polling the major prospecters about their preference between the two players, or read Jason Catania on Keeper League Strategies. Zach Sanders’ piece on Valuing Upside Graphically might also come into play.

But since you don’t — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to suss out the difference between these two super studs. If your answer changes depending on league settings, feel free to include that in your answer.

Have at it!

This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.

For our second over/under game, let’s take a look at Jonathan Papelbon.

The over/under number for Papelbon is $12. As in, would you spend more than $12 on Papelbon in ottoneu? What sort of settings would make Papelbon worth that scratch?

The 31-year-old famously switched home parks over the offseason, but he’s still on a good team and still the owner of a great strikeout rate and a miniscule walk rate. His velocity came back and his closer face was in mid-season form all year long. If you had paid for FanGraphs+, you’d have Chad Young’s excellent breakdown of different strategies for each ottoneu setting, and you’d know even more about the relative value of relievers in a game that has five reliever slots, linear weights scoring, and a $400 overall budget.

But since you don’t — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to suss out Papelbon’s value this season in ottoneu. His average price last year was near $8 — but that was leagues of all settings and that was before his resurgent year. If you think you’d more likely pay $12 (or more) for him in one of the three ottoneu settings than any of the others, include that in your answer. To make sure everyone is eligible — feel free to describe the settings that would make Papelbon worth every bit of a hefty price tag.

Have at it!

Cuban mega star and Dominican Winter League flameout Yoenis Cespedes signed with the Oakland Athletics for four years and $36 million today. The landing spot for The Showcase might seem like a poor fit at first, but it’s not all bad news today. There are even things to like about where he ended up.

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This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.

For our first over/under game, let’s take a look at Madison Bumgarner.

The over/under number for Bumgarner is 20%. As in, will he strike out more or less than 20% of the batters he faces in 2012?

The 6′ 5″ lanky lefty suddenly upped his swinging strike rate in 2012 despite using the same slate of offerings at about the same velocities. If you had access to FG+ this year, you would be able to read about how best to use his Pitch F/x information to answer this question — thanks to Josh Weinstock. And — thanks to Michael Barr — you’d also have an equation for expected K% that would be derived from his 2011 peripherals.

But since you don’t — and yes, I’m suggesting that current subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can. Please use anything other than the xK% equation for your argument, and make it as long or as short as you like otherwise.

Have at it!

Come by to talk fantasy or real baseball. Beer and sandwich talk is always welcome.

Let’s keep it up. A big thanks to our readers that showed up for a mock draft. Even if I talk trash on their picks, I appreciate that they stepped forward and took this chance to practice in the public eye. All readers can see the whole mock here, but the participants are winners for their effort. On to rounds 13-16.

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A few users (especially Oliver) expressed some interest in doing a RotoGraphs Reader Mock Draft, and we love the idea. Please use this post as a meeting point to figure out the draft, its’ details, and to post the results. If it’s okay with you, the RotoGraphs team will (politely) discuss the results once the draft is concluded. We think you guys are well-informed and among the best fantasy players on the interwebs, so this makes a whole grip of sense.

Sometimes, short and simple is the best way to go. As Sly and the Family Stone said — “Thank You Falletinme Mice Elf Again”… no it was “Sing a Simple Song” — sometimes it’s just about the ABCs, or in this case the ADPs. Let’s look at some Average Draft Positions for outfielders in the early going. We know some drafts start in February, and we know that at least 607 drafts have been completed at Mock Draft Central, so let’s use their excellent knowledge to benefit our fantasy teams.

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Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com got a bunch of experts together for a mock draft last night. Yours truly may not have acquitted himself as well as he’d hoped. He blames the fact that his eyes are permanently crossed after editing 1083 player caps for the Second Opinion this weekend, but no-one wants to hear his excuses — especially now that he’s talking about himself in third person. The. Worst.

What had happened was: a little wobble, one botched pick, and you end up looking at a few spots on your roster with the stank eye. One wobble can bring the train down — and in this case Martin Prado might have been the one-man wobble, or maybe not. Maybe it started earlier.

Since I had the turn, let’s just assess the draft by every two picks.

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For the past year-plus, Kendrys Morales has been an expert in worst case scenarios. Injure yourself in a walkoff celebration, miss a full year in the aftermath, and see your team promote a promising young stud and acquire the best player in the league — both at your position — and you can come to define the term.

Are things looking up now? Teammates like Peter Bourjos raved at the power Morales showed in his first live batting practice in over a year on Monday. What if he gets it together? What might a best-case scenario for the 28-year-old switch-hitting Cuban first baseman look like? How could things break just right for him?

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