FG+ O/U Game: Jonathan Papelbon
This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.
For our second over/under game, let’s take a look at Jonathan Papelbon.
The over/under number for Papelbon is $12. As in, would you spend more than $12 on Papelbon in ottoneu? What sort of settings would make Papelbon worth that scratch?
The 31-year-old famously switched home parks over the offseason, but he’s still on a good team and still the owner of a great strikeout rate and a miniscule walk rate. His velocity came back and his closer face was in mid-season form all year long. If you had paid for FanGraphs+, you’d have Chad Young’s excellent breakdown of different strategies for each ottoneu setting, and you’d know even more about the relative value of relievers in a game that has five reliever slots, linear weights scoring, and a $400 overall budget.
But since you don’t — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to suss out Papelbon’s value this season in ottoneu. His average price last year was near $8 — but that was leagues of all settings and that was before his resurgent year. If you think you’d more likely pay $12 (or more) for him in one of the three ottoneu settings than any of the others, include that in your answer. To make sure everyone is eligible — feel free to describe the settings that would make Papelbon worth every bit of a hefty price tag.
Have at it!
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Over.
Saves are the rare managerially-determined stat in roto baseball, and huge contracts are the leading cause of save certainty and role stasis. I would argue in favor of Papelbon’s performance, but that’s irrelevant in a circumstance such as this. The only stat necessary is listed at Cott’s.
Under – you don’t pay 50% more because his demeanor got better last year. There are going to be closers available at $8 and less that will have 30+ saves and their peripheral numbers won’t make or break your pitching staff since they work relatively few innings.
Depends on the league format. In a points league, I don’t think so since there are so many dominant middle relievers that can be had on the cheap. Since holds are worth one point less than saves I think it makes more sense to go the cheap route in a points league. In a traditional 5×5 or 4×4 league, I do think he is worth it, however.
I would take the over here with caveats. I’ll begin by discussing saves leagues.
In my experience, an elite closer costs roughly $15, pure and simple. It doesn’t actually matter what the player’s value is, if you want to acquire a Jonathan Papelbon, you have to spend more than $12. The Angels may have paid too much for Pujols, but that was the cost of playing in that space. Same concept applies.
Now, that doesn’t necessarily get to the point at hand – would I pay $12 – so let me say this I would pay over $12 for Papelbon given the right conditions.
Conditions apply to every player. I can say with certainty that I would not always pay $12 for Papelbon, I would not always pay $40 for Bautista, I would not always pay $35 for Kershaw, etc. But there are times when I would pay all three of those prices.
One condition I know I would consider Papelbon in is if I felt that my starting pitchers lacked elite ratios. Let’s pretend Papelbon drifted down the board a little ways and I already have a weak, bargain rotation of Matt Cain, Anibal Sanchez, Chris Sale, Ivan Nova, and Erik Bedard. I’d be pretty worried about that unit and would look to supplement it by spending liberally on top relievers.
The goal here is obvious, to produce #1 fantasy starter ratios out of the bullpen while stockpiling saves. Rather than acquiring a $45 Halladay, I could acquire two top closers, a mid-tier closer, and two elite setup men.
Wins become an issue in this scenario, but we know how volatile those are. Opportunities can and will present themselves. The same can be said of saves, but rarely do you have a shot at an elite reliever who earns a mid-season promotion. The Kenley Jansen’s and Addison Reeds of the world are being selected before many closers.
Heretofore, I have focused on saves leagues. In a linear weights league those saves don’t matter anymore. Research by the Rotographs crew (couldn’t find link) has shown that elite setup men cost substantially less in the draft than elite closers even though they both provide similar value. It’s probably some sort of a name-value effect and it’s possible that it won’t persist after season one. I would still gamble on acquiring guys like Robertson, Adams, and Marshall for roughly the cost of one Papelbon.
Brad Johnson is a winnner winner chicken dinner! Liked JT’s answer for brevity and sabermetric solutions was good too, but here’s your winner!
huzzah!
The question asked is “The over/under number for Papelbon is $12. As in, would YOU spend more than $12 on Papelbon in ottoneu?”
The answer is mixed. Personally, I would not spend $12+ for any closer, but Papelbon WILL be purchased for more than $12 in most leagues, and here’s why.
Currently per Mock Draft Central, Papelbon is being taken 102 overall and the 5th reliever, just barely behind Rivera (97) and well above the next two – Wilson (113) and Valverde (122). I think it’s safe to say that Papelbon is being drafted at the bottom for the first tier (or if you want to put Kimbrel in a tier of his own, they’d be tier 1b). In this regard, top tier relievers typically go in the teens as I’d expect for Papelbon.
Now, why I think Papelbon will be quite good this year is all about the offense surrounding him. The Phillies aren’t that potent this year. Howard is injured, Rollins and Utley are old. Their run producers from 2009 simply aren’t the same today. With such a great starting rotation, they will be in A LOT of close games. Close games benefits saves. Even if Papelbon regresses from last year, he’ll still get tons of opportunities to produce where most of his fantasy value lies.
I would not. There are too many other save people down the list that will have similar numbers when it is all said and done. If I pay $12 I HAVE to get great numbers. If I draft a couple of relievers at $2 or $3 I can reap the benefits or find another as there are always more saves out there.
Under
Jonathan Papelbon averaged $8 last year across all league settings. Now simply going off supply and demand, any self-respecting fantasy owner would slot closers based on performance and value. A $12+ closer just doesn’t scream value. To his credit Papelbon’s 2011 campaign featured a solid counting stats, a career high in Ks, a sub 1.00 ERA, and an enviable 12.2 K/9. But 31 saves is still just 31 saves, and that was good enough for 18th among all relief pitchers.
The Red Sox didn’t figure into the playoffs last year, but when comparing Papelbon’s previous employer with his new one, Phillies don’t figure to offer him that great an advantage in save opportunities. Ryan Madson only recorded one more save in 2011 with Philadelphia than Papelbon in Boston. Is anyone really expecting Papelbon to drop a 50 save season and be a stat grabbing-game changer?
As to the second part of the question, what type of league would make Papelbon worth upwards of $12? Maybe a shallow league with limited RP slots, or an AL-only, or even a 6×6 or 7×7 that included K/9 or IP that put a premium on stats per appearance and ignored any streaming strategy.
Correction sub 1.00 WHIP
I’m taking the under on Papelbon.
I think we can all agree that Jonathan Papelbon is a great pitcher, maybe even deserving of the elite tag. However, I would not pay $12 dollars for him because closers are unreliable on a year to year basis and because in ottoneu, long term value is what wins championships.
Here’s a stat that explains the volatile role that closers are in: 67.5% of all closers that save 20 or more games, fail to achieve that mark the next year. I’m not suggesting that Papelbon, who had his “worst” season in terms of saves last year (31), will suddenly drop below 20, but I expect him to not improve back to 40 or so saves that he usually gets. One reason is because Papelbon has switched from the Red Sox to the Phillies. Even though the Phillies scored 12 more runs than the Red Sox(102 to 90) , I expect that to fall significantly this year to the 83-88 win range. This is because of the shaky situation on their roster.
On their pitching staff, the Phillies have most likely lost Roy Oswalt, leaving the Big Three plus unproven Vance Worley and Joe Blanton. In the bullpen, they lost Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson, leaving Papelbon, Chad Qualls, and Jose Conteras as the go-to guys. In the lineup, the Phillies have lost Ryan Howard for at least most of the season, Chase Utley is coming off a series of injuries, and 39-year old Raul Ibanez is being relied upon to man left field. Why does the Phillies record matter? It matters because teams usually get one save for every two wins. Going by that, the Phillies had about 50 opportunities last year. If they fall to 88 wins next year, those opportunities will fall to around 45.
Another reason why you shouldn’t spend $12 dollars on Papelbon: There are so many other young closers out there that you should take a chance on. There were 26 closers who had 20 or more saves last year. Right now, the 26th closer taken in Yahoo! mock drafts is Matt Capps at $1.7. Last year, Craig Kimbrel was either undrafted or drafted very late in drafts… So was Drew Storen… So was Sergio Santos… So was Jordan Walden. All of these turned out to be reliable options to studs like Kimbrel. Due to the sabermetric age, teams can now evaluate players better and find younger talent. Papelbon has over 400 innings of work on his arm; Most of it being 98 Mph fastballs. Guys like Kimbrel are fresh and developing. Ottoneu is about developing prospects into stars over a period of time. Can Papelbon keep up his production for another 5,8, 10 years?
But… There’s a catch. You can’t just group all league formats together into one. I was referring mostly to a standard points ottoneu league. However, if you are in a 4 X 4 league, certainly pay over $12 for Papelbon. Saves are worth so much more in those leagues. If you are in a 5X5 league, I would still take the under on 12, but slightly. In Points leagues, I wouldn’t take him for more than 7. I believe that the $10 in the Fangraghs Expert League is too high. Of course, if you have money to burn and your roster situation isn’t very good, take a chance and go a little over 12.
It’s all about context.
Sorry for the long response. Being a Sox fan, I’m passionate about Jonathon (Wild Thing) Papelbon.