The Wobble that Derailed My Mock
Charlie Saponara of FantasyBaseball365.com got a bunch of experts together for a mock draft last night. Yours truly may not have acquitted himself as well as he’d hoped. He blames the fact that his eyes are permanently crossed after editing 1083 player caps for the Second Opinion this weekend, but no-one wants to hear his excuses — especially now that he’s talking about himself in third person. The. Worst.
What had happened was: a little wobble, one botched pick, and you end up looking at a few spots on your roster with the stank eye. One wobble can bring the train down — and in this case Martin Prado might have been the one-man wobble, or maybe not. Maybe it started earlier.
Since I had the turn, let’s just assess the draft by every two picks.
1.12 Hanley Ramirez
2.1 Dustin Pedroia
Could have done this turn in my sleep, and I actually recommend it as a draft slot. This is a middle infield with a ton of upside in a year where shortstop looks like it might be really terrible. No problems here.
Picking a pitcher this early is never easy, but it felt like the draft was pushing elite pitching early — Haren was only the ninth pitcher picked, and in that context I have no problem with taking him there. Once I saw that one of my favorite ‘late aces,’ David Price, was already gone, I sorta panicked. That was the first wobble — I would have been fine with Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke or Jon Lester as my first pitcher, and if Haren had been in the draft pool, I likely would have gotten one of them in round five. Bruce? It’s a five-outfield league and he should hit 30. Wanted power and an outfielder and he seems fine here.
But that pitcher pick really came back to bite me.
5.12 Eric Hosmer
6.1 Buster Posey
I have no complaints about these picks. Once Paul Konerko was gone, I realized that I needed a first baseman pretty badly, and “Hunter Pence at first base” was still out there — even if he doesn’t add a ton of power via an improved fly ball rate in 2012, he’ll be fine. And in a two-catcher league, getting a stud at the position in the sixth round seems just about right — especially 11 picks after Brian McCann.
So no real problems with the pick. That doesn’t mean I wasn’t already cursing my screen. I was hoping to pick Brett Lawrie with my fourth round pick, but when I picked the pitcher, I was stuck with only one position player pick, and the outfield seemed like more of a need. Then, in the next two rounds, Lawrie, Aramis Ramirez, and Pablo Sandoval all went, and I was angry.
Two lessons here. 1) Just because everyone else is picking pitching early, you don’t have to. 2) If you like a player, don’t worry about ADP too hard, take him. If you think Lawrie has the floor a .280 20/20 third baseman — and I do — then he’s a fine fourth-round pick. If you think pitching early is suspect because pitchers hit the DL more often and for longer than hitters, and there are only two pitching ‘positions,’ — and I do — then it’s fine to wait to pick the 12th-best ace. Just get one of the better number twos.
7.12 Jason Heyward
8.1 Dan Hudson
Fine place for two guys that could bounce back into star status. Hudson should strike more guys out this year based on his swinging strike rate, and Heyward just needs to be healthy for a year worthy of a second outfielder in a five-outfielder league. Heyward went between Drew Stubbs and Jayson Werth, and Hudson went between Matt Cain and Josh Beckett. Just right.
The wobble is still there, though: I thought, with Alex Rodriguez and Kevin Youkilis still on the table — and both looking old — that one would make it back to this pick. When they didn’t, the fear began to grip me. I had a ‘problem position’ suddenly.
9.12 Logan Morrison
10.1 Jonathan Papelbon
Looking back, I’m just happy I didn’t start panicking earlier. Well, the run on outfielders in round nine (Brett Gardner, Cameron Maybin, Ichiro Suzuki, and Lance Berkman) sorta made me nervous, but I like Logan Morrison this year. .280 and 25 shouldn’t be too difficult for him. And Papelbon’s strikeout rate makes him an elite closer that can help pad my strikeout category — that’s fine for double digit rounds.
Still no third baseman.
11.12 Tommy Hanson
12.1 Martin Prado
After taking a shot at an ace in the SP3 spot — a shot that most of the draft room was okay with — the panic finally got to me. Even though both Prado and David Freese were on the draft board, and most people had third basemen, I picked Prado, thinking he could play in the outfield if I got another third baseman later. This decision cost me more than any other decision in the draft.
13.12 Lucas Duda
14.1 Chris Carpenter
Yeah I love Lucas Duda, been touting him since mid-season last year, and think he can easily manage LoMo-like numbers for cheaper. And Chris Carpenter is a fine ace-lite with an SP3 cost.
But I missed out on Jason Kipnis. That one hurt. At 12.7, in a draft with an MI slot, Kipnis might have been the steal of the draft. We’ve been writing about how Kipnis is a better investment for the price than Dustin Ackley, and I’ve been drinking the kool-aid. One of stupid Freese or Prado would have dropped to me here, and I would take Jason Kipnis and Martin Prado over Chris Carpenter and Martin Prado. Yup, this one made me angry.
15.12 Jordan Walden
16.1 Chris Sale
Love my pitching. Hate my third baseman.
17.12 Zack Cozart
18.1 Colby Rasmus
Cozart is a decent Kipnis-lite, but he’s older, was considered less of a prospect, and just doesn’t have the same upside. Love my outfield. Still hate my third baseman.
19.12 Ryan Roberts
20.1 Chris Perez
So I needed a backup MI and a backup third baseman — all because I didn’t pick Brett Lawrie earlier in the draft. So I picked Ryan Roberts here, which is fine, but the dude is 31 already and could easily disappear again like he did all those years before last year. What if I was happier about my situations around the infield? I might have taken a catcher, or a better utility bat (Justin Morneau?).
(As for Chris Perez, yes, I know, but my favorite late-draft sleepers like Addison Reed and Kenley Jansen were already taken by all the pros in this room. Say what you will about Perez — and I’ll join in — but he’s still the incumbent closer. If this draft had a bench, I would have drafted Vinnie Pestano and felt good about my three closer situations, as I think Pestano is the clear number two.)
21.12 Clay Buchholz
22.1 Nolan Reimold
No problems with the actual players here — but, combined with my picks in the 19th and 20th, I still didn’t have my second catcher… and I only liked one catcher left on the board.
23.1 Ryan Hanigan
Crap. Jonathan Lucroy went at 22.2 and with it went my decent number two. Since Devin Mesoraco is a rookie on a Dusty Baker team, Hanigan might surprise this year. And really, you don’t want to pick a second catcher too early or anything. But Lucroy and Carlos Lee might have been better than Reimold and Hanigan, if a little lite on upside.
So, I learned some things, and the team is decent, but has those obvious flaws:
C Buster Posey (6.1)
C Ryan Hanigan (23.12)
1B Eric Hosmer (5.12)
2B Dustin Pedroia (2.1)
3B Martin Prado (12.1)
SS Hanley Ramirez (1.12)
MI Zack Cozart (17.12)
CI Ryan Roberts (19.12)
OF Jay Bruce (4.1)
OF Jason Heyward (7.12)
OF Logan Morrison (9.12)
OF Lucas Duda (13.12)
OF Colby Rasmus (18.1)
Util Nolan Reimold (22.1)
P Dan Haren (3.12)
P Dan Hudson (8.1)
P Jonathan Papelbon (10.1)
P Tommy Hanson (11.12)
P Chris Carpenter (14.1)
P Jordan Walden (15.12)
P Chris Sale (16.1)
P Chris Perez (20.1)
P Clay Buchholz (21.12)
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I wouldn’t beat yourself up over 3B. 3B blows and it’s going to suck for a lot of people, so you just have to make it up somewhere else. It surprises me though that Hosmer is going that early. Rasmus in the 18th round could provide some real value. It makes me sad that Panda is going 4:1. He’s worth it, but I keep holding out hope it’ll be like last year when I got him in the 11th round or something.
Sandoval went 4:12… it’s a Snake. But yeah, still high.
What I was thinking: I had the wheel pick with R4 P12 and R5 P1. Panda has an ADP around 70 and given the run on 3Bs I didn’t think he’d get back to me at pick 72 (I’m certain he wouldn’t have). Gotta get the players you want when picking from the wheel.
Call me crazy, but I’d be taking Sandoval way earlier than pick 70. 4:12 isn’t even a reach in my eyes.
Also, I like Justin Green’s team a lot. Garza in the 10th round? Yes please.
Cuddyer 7.11
Willingham 13.9
Cuddyer has 10 points of batting average and 2 years on Willingham I guess that is worth 70 picks
I think he was an MI in this draft, but I’m not sure I liked that pick as much as the room did anyway.
Cuddyer was NOT middle infield or 2B eligible. If he was drafted with less stringent eligibility requirements in mind (this mock required 20 games played for eligibility), I don’t mind it. His positional flexibility is nice in those leagues (even if two of those positions are deep, 1B/OF), and leaving Target for Coors could provide a nice boost to his numbers. It was fun drafting, glad you were able to make it.
cuddyer could have 1B,2B,3B,OF though
Not a fan of Moustakos then? He was still there while you stressed over Prado/Freese. Maybe he was on your radar, just not on your wishlist…
At worst, if you had him as ‘last resort’ then 3 targets left at the 11/12 turn might have given you enough cushion to hold off.
Amazing how just one pick can influence a draft. I know it is a mock, but I really like to approach to this article. Seldom do I see a lot of insight given to the flow of a draft overall, but how much of your results are based on those time-constrained choices?!
(Also agree on the turn this year. Although I like Ellsbury/Hanley there myself.)
I thought you were going to say the reach was Posey. A catcher that early…wow.
Ellsbury at the turn involves some luck, no?
In lieu of another measure, I tend to look at where they land on ESPN Player Rater. What I’ve found (in my 3 years of watching it closely) is that it is very difficult to repeat a top 10 finish…amidst the handful of players putting up career years and so forth. That’s why guys like Pujols/Hanley were so far in front of other first round picks in recent years.
Elllsbury has been 6th and 2nd (2009, 2011). He’d done it with more speed than power, then more power than expected. Basically, I don’t need to assume another 30 HR to feel I’m getting first round value with him.
He is a likely candidate to lead the league in plate appearances AND he doesn’t walk a whole lot. So the impact of his ~.300 hitting could be greater than another .320 average from Napoli. The value of at bats and a strong average is a market inefficiency right now IMO.
Too many people make the mistake of thinking Michael Bourn is a good target in lieu of Ellsbury. Just as a power bat with 10-15 steals has sneaky upside value, so do the speed guys who will hit double digit HR. Biggest value in fantasy drafts I think.
I’ll take Ellsbury/Jennings types while the rest of my league reaches for nice HR numbers. That combo vs a duo of Bautista/Bruce isn’t even close in 5×5 value (again, assuming Player Rater is close to accurate).
You can have the HR title. I’ll take the other 4 offensive categories in the end.
(Note: I’m not ignoring HR this year, just making sure I’m smart about when/where/how it gets onto my roster.)
Moose was on my radar, not sure what happened there, but obviously my third base plan wasn’t great.
In hindsight, would you take Lawrie over Haren then?? Or over Bruce??
Assuming ESPN player rater is in the ballpark, Haren was a top 40 player last year (31) while Bruce wasn’t even top 60 (65). It’s one thing if you think Bruce is going to improve, but drafting him at 37 doesn’t leave much room for value.
If Jennings hits his WORST projection he’s likely to be a better (overall) piece than Bruce.
When to draft “a category” vs overall 5×5 value??
Prado killed me last year, too, except I took him 6 rounds earlier than you. The rest of the 6th: Weaver, Gallardo, Carlos Santana, Rios, Alvarez, Weeks, N. Feliz, Sandoval, Andrus, Ellsbury, Victorino.
Brutal.
Some say you can’t win the league with early picks, but you can lose it.
I tend to agree that no ‘single’ pick can win your league, but when you look at any draft (with hindsight) if a team has 6-7 of their top 10 picks work out–meet or exceed expectations–that’s pretty good.
Not sure I’ve seen a draft that goes 10 for 10, but I would imagine that’ll win you a lot of leagues.
Is that even possible in baseball?!?!
i’ll try not to pat myself on the back too hard, but my first 6 picks in 2009 were Pujols, Utley, Longoria, Haren, Tulowitzki, Kemp. My next couple picks were Alexei Ramirez and Choo, I think. Also drafted a rotation of the previously mentioned Haren, Josh Johnson, Jair Jurrjens, Wandy, and Ubaldo with my very last pick. Never before or since have I ever drafted so well
I’ll leave out I dropped Tulo to hold onto Alexei and Choo to keep Elijah Dukes, both in like the first 2 weeks. Still won though thank god
I’m pretty sure I had Aaron Hill and Kendrys Morales too, but they were almost certainly waiver additions
Interesting that nobody took a shot at Trout in a 5 OF league. I know his playing time is in question but his upside has to be worth a shot to beat some of the guys drafted.
Oh Eno i haven’t ever seen you write up anything (here anyways) on Lagunitas. Have hada few of there Maximu’s IPA ….yes yummy.
surprised matt cain lasted as long as he did, and with strasburg going before him…
not sure whose team i like more, josh or rob
You’re joking, right? Rob’s round 3-6 picks all scare me in some serious way. That team has some pretty serious downside. Then hell, his rounds 8, 9, and 10 could be catastrophic too.
they’ve got just as much upside as downside, though. and the stars will cover the others’ weaknesses to an extent
Thanks, I had fun with the draft. Though he wasn’t a need, I too cursed like Eno when I saw Kipnis fly off the board. He’d have looked great at my MI slot. I was happy to fill the position with Johnson later though.
Can’t say I’m a big fan of your first 6 picks, other than Hosmer. 2B isn’t quite as shallow as some years and while I love Pedroia, 13th overall seems a bit high. And Hanley’s trends scare me too much to risk a 1st round pick on him. In my mind, the first couple picks in the draft need to be money in the bank, not upside plays. Catcher is also deeper than most years and some of those guys drafted 14th round and later aren’t far behind Posey in upside and come with much less cost. That said, I thought you drafted great rounds 7-11, and pretty good elsewhere. Just too much risk early for my taste.
I see little risk if I’m calling Hanley a .280 20/25 guy, floor, and at shortstop that’s a first-two rounder for me, short is really crappy this year. I guess I just don’t see him as a perennial injury risk.
Pedroia? First or second best second baseman year-in and year-out. One bad year doesn’t make him a risk, imo, everyone has one bad year, even Pujols.
14th round catchers that have .285+, 22+ upside? Disagree, obviously. In a two-catcher league, I think picking the sixth catcher makes sense, especially if he has upside to join the top five.
I agree with mymrbig. It amazes me that (almost) an entire fangraphs community that’s supposed to be based on logic has such little problem with drafting Hanley #1 and assuming an all-star floor for him like last year never happened.
The guy is overweight and coming off of surgery, which takes away from stats and increases injury risk. He’s moving to a position he’s never played which can be fine or a complete disaster. The team expects power from 3b so he has pressure to swing for the fences, not a great recipe to improve on a .243 average. Plus he’s a head case malcontent, not a candidate one would say is the right type to handle all of it, and a manager that’s not going to put up with any pouting.
Now maybe all that is bunk, maybe he goes back to what he was Maybe Ozzie works magic and makes him MVP and the next ARod to switch to 3b. But the key is MAYBE. Your first round pick is basically a coin flip between boon or bust.
Funny that people that drafted Jose Bautista in round 1 last year got more flak than you are getting for sinking such a big risk into a #1 pick, but they ended up geniuses so I hope it works out for you, too.
There are obviously people that don’t agree on this one, I would say this is more of a personal crusade on my part than something everyone agrees with. When you’re at the turn, there’s already doubt. It’s not like I took Hanley in the top five, I respect that doubt, I just have my stated opinion.
As for the rest of what you said… Hanley’s always been a head case, he’s had six months to recover from surgery that corrected the thing that was hurting him last year, and the team is probably going to be competitive for the first time in a while. If we are going to play psychologist and doctor, we can always spin things the other way.
Also, there were BABIP issues with that .243 average — he had the worst BABIP of his career. That’s more of a standard regression to the mean argument that most people here probably do agree with.
Notice I said .280 20/20, not anything close to early Hanley. I still see talent, and I still see the second-best shortstop in a terrible position.
In addition to a crappy 3b, you fail to mention how your team is going to get WRECKED in the power categories of a 12 team league. I think you thought a lot about what tiers people fell into and who was “starting calliber” more than you thought about statistical need.
Only Bruce has significant power to matter on this team, I see almost no way you aren’t last in hrs.
Not trying to be a hater, but hopefully we can all get better via criticism.
I would call this a “balanced draft” … not going to win any one particular hitting category, but has potential to do well in a few pitching categories. This is my time in years with a 12-team draft, so I’m paying very cloes attention to how the talent is spread out, especially with the 12/1 pick. The more you know…
I’d have to disagree–he doesn’t have the huge corner bats that some teams do, but having pedroia/hanley at 2b and ss is a huge power boost given the scarcity of 20-HR bats at MI positions. i think the number of guys on the team who will hit close to 20 with upside for more makes up for hosmer being 5-10 short of the elite 1B power hitters.
I’m not so sure that Hosmer isn’t going to catch up to them, or come close, pretty darn soon.
yeah, i could see it–point was that even if we take a pessimistic approach, he has enough power across the board to make up for not having many massive HR hitters
I don’t have a single speed-only guy and everyone else does. You think a team that averages over 20 homers per lineup slot is going to have trouble in power? When you get speed with your power guys instead of having to go get speed guys, you get a boost in power, relatively.
Also, power is way down around the league. .280, 25-HR hitting guys like Morrison and Duda are way more fantasy-normal these days then they used to be.
After digging a bit, it seems like a reasonable “floor” for Lawrie is 20-20-.280. If he just meets those numbers at 3B, shouldn’t be getting drafted just a bit after Wright? Basically him and Wright are projected to have very similar #s by pretty much every source, and the only “knock” on Lawrie is his lack of experience (which also makes it more likely he exceeds expectations vs. Wright).
Am I missing something here? Why is Wright a 3rd rounder and Lawire a 5th rounder?
I’m with you. I’ve done a draft in this exact same spot since and I took Lawrie. I see no problem with taking him in the late third or early fourth. That’s why I was so pissed about this one.
C Buster Posey (6.1)
C Ryan Hanigan (23.12)
1B Eric Hosmer (5.12)
2B Dustin Pedroia (2.1)
3B Martin Prado (12.1)
SS Hanley Ramirez (1.12)
MI Zack Cozart (17.12)
CI Ryan Roberts (19.12)
OF Jay Bruce (4.1)
OF Jason Heyward (7.12)
OF Logan Morrison (9.12)
OF Lucas Duda (13.12)
OF Colby Rasmus (18.1)
Util Nolan Reimold (22.1)
P Dan Haren (3.12)
P Dan Hudson (8.1)
P Jonathan Papelbon (10.1)
P Tommy Hanson (11.12)
P Chris Carpenter (14.1)
P Jordan Walden (15.12)
P Chris Sale (16.1)
P Chris Perez (20.1)
P Clay Buchholz (21.12)
I’m not crazy about your first or second round picks. I’m absolutely looking to target a first baseman with my first or second pick. I’d much rather go to war with Fielder or Gonzalez as opposed to Konerko or Berkman. Although I like the Hosmer selection, the talent evaporates quickly after the first five rounds. Pedroia feels like a early second rounder to me, and talent can be had at the position later in the draft. If you can get bounceback seasons from both Rasmus and Heyward, and healthy campaigns from Posey, Hanson and Buchholz your team may be competitive. Maybe I’m just looking at your team differently, but the only guys on your team that I REALLY like are Bruce, Hosmer and Hudson.