Erasmo Ramirez is coming. Last year, the changeup was enough to star in Orgazmo. This year, there have been some bumps in the road. Just how sexy will he be for mixed leaguers isn’t quite so obvious.
Ricky Nolasco has a career FIP of 3.81. Ricky Nolasco has a career ERA of 4.44. If the season ended today, it would be the second time he’d ever shown an ERA under four. Given his skill set (good strikeout rate for a starter, excellent control) and home park (both versions of Miami’s home park were pitcher-friendly), it’s a bit surprising. But since that breakout second, full season in 2008, Nolasco has frustrated his owners. Now that he’s finally on the move to Los Angeles, which boasts a pitcher’s park, but also a better team, are all systems go? What about the fact that ERA becomes a better tool when you’re talking about 1000-inning samples? Is Nolasco somehow fatally flawed?
Two oft-injured pitchers are struggling with performance right now, and have already seen the disabled list this season. And yet they have enough upside to remain on rosters. When they’re right, they are top-half closers. Right now, too much looks wrong.
“Dude’s not even 24 and he’s already hit 20+ homers twice. He’s on a trajectory that’ll take him to the top of the first basemen, with good plate discipline and power.”
or
“Have you seen him hit? Freddie Freeman’s power numbers in the minors were not exciting. Disagree.”
There’s good points on both sides of the battle. But Freddie Freeman owners in dynasty leagues are probably wondering if they have a long-term, top-of-the-table asset, or if he’s a better plug-in piece for a contender.
The number one name blowing up my twitter feed is also fun to say. Yasiel Puig is a manbearpuig, a monster, a manchild, and a linebacker playing baseball, and he once looked like the bodybuilder you see on the left. And yet his batting average on balls in play is over .500, he’s walked three times, and he’s just so impossibly hot that selling high on him — in keeper or redraft leagues — is a popular play. But is it the right one?
To answer this, I just wanted to put him in the context of his peers. He’s only 82 plate appearances into his career, so I had to set the minimums low (80 PA). But here are the top ten rookies in slugging percentage since 1974:
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For my birthday, I’m giving myself a present.
That present? A good scolding.
Because maybe I’ve made too many excuses for Zack Greinke over the course of his career. Maybe I’ve wishcasted him into a role he doesn’t occupy. Is he really a fantasy ace? What’s going on with him this year? And if the answer to the first is No, then how much do we care about the answer to the second. These are the things I contemplate on the day that I hang up another number next to my name.
Mike Leake has an ERA under three and his batting average on balls in play is over .300. Is he a pickup?
When the Wil Myers hype train started, he had no flaws. He walked almost as much as he struck out, he struck out less than the league average, and though he wasn’t a catcher any more, he looked athletic in the outfield, and his power was to drool for. That was probably 2010. Since, he’s been traded, and a possible flaw has emerged — his strikeout rate has increased steadily as he’s advanced. That’s not great news, but with him up today, it’s worth trying to ask the numbers what might be in store for Myers.
Hector Santiago deserves a full write-up on one fact alone: he throws a screwball. Other than Daniel Herrera — the short former Red and Met with floppy hair that hasn’t seen the majors or minors since 2012 — there’s really nobody who can claim the pitch. And with Herrera MIA, well, there can be only one. Now that Jake Peavy is down for at least six weeks with trunk issues, there’s even more reason to take a look at the new-former-new-former White Sox starter.
Well, maybe it’s not so bad. In fantasy baseball, at least, most of the Marlins’ outfielders are owned in deep leagues. Juan Pierre might even be owned in some mixed leagues for his steals. At least when he goes up against the catchers from Tampa, San Diego, Anaheim, either Chicago, and Boston. And maybe it’s not that bad in real life either: the team has more than two wins from the outfield squad, and that’s good for 18th in the league.
But the way that outfield has been managed, and the type of talent that could be on the way, means that the Marlins outfield still represents some sort of crisis. In that it is in flux, and there’s opportunity here if the chips fall a certain way.