Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Welcome to my first regular season chat for 2022!!!
1:04
JoeG: as a Tigers fan , are you confident JCandy will start hitting ?
1:07
Paul Sporer: Yes, far too early to worry. I understand if you move on in 10s and 12s because you don’t have to wait on mid-tier guys like that to come through when the waiver wire has so much to offer. I think this is something I’ve struggled w/in shallower leagues in recent years. Cutting someone doesn’t even mean you don’t believe in the player in those formats, but you gotta get numbers it’s OK to churn through players to get guys performing. Doesn’t mean I’m cutting everyone off 4-5 bad gms, but rotating a few spots on the team is the only way you’ll get in on the breakouts in those formats
Ben: Thanks for the chat! In a 12 team roto dynasty league, trying to compete but missing on closers, would you try and trade a strong prospect greene/gore for someone like Romano or swap a waiver wire grab like megill/ Sandoval for someone more midtier?
Kershaw was perfect through 7, but anyone paying attention knew there was no shot he was going to finish it given his health issues and the fact that it was his first start of the season. He simply wasn’t stretched out to go 100+ pitches and Kershaw knows better than to carelessly push himself and risk the rest of the season. Obviously it’d be great to see him throw a perfecto, but it doesn’t make sense to push well beyond your limit in game 1 of the year.
Kelly stood tall for a second straight start (this time v. HOU), carrying on from a strong Spring Training (7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 13 K). His velo is up to 92.9 mph (+1.1 over ’21) and he is using his changeup a lot more up. It is up 7 pts in usage to 24% and has been excellent, allowing 1 H w/6 Ks in 13 PA. He has a 2-start (at WAS, NYM) next week and will be a popular pickup in many formats. I’m definitely eyeing him in 12s and 15s, possibly even 10s depending who I’m cutting.
McKenzie’s season debut in relief was unsettling, but it turned out to be a blip as opposed to reason for major concern. His velo was back up to 93.9 mph and he was great for 4 IP.
Burnes assuaged any Opening Day concerns by looking like the stud drafted in the 1st round in Baltimore.
Despite a 56% GB rate, Gray kept the ball in the park en route to a strong outing despite 3 BB. The tough part with Gray will be knowing when to sit him since HRs can pop up against any team. He gets a 2-step against ARI and SF next week, so he is a start for me despite a tough Giants team in that second start.
Valdez didn’t have any fastball command, particularly his 4-seamer (he throws a sinker, too), which led to 5 BB and an early day against what should’ve been a great opponent. The start didn’t hurt too badly, but a trip to ARI is usually a prime spot.
Fried was nickeled and dimed, allowing 6 1B and a double, and it would’ve been nice to see more Ks against a weaker opponent, but this just a run-of-the-mill fine outing.
Thompson should have bouts of streamer usefulness, especially once he is fully stretched out. He gets a 2-step at MIL and at CHC next week, so I expect him to be a mid-tier option in FAAB this weekend.
Means leaving with forearm tightness is rough. Hold out for news before making any moves, but if he is shelved for the injury, I think he becomes a cut in leagues without IL spots and perhaps in spots with just 1-2 slots, too, though that will depend a lot more on your roster.
A 2-out throwing error by Jeimer Candelario in the top of the 4th opened the floodgates for BOS as they ripped three straight doubles off E-Rod and spoiled his start. There is nothing actionable off this start.
3 HRs are the only reason Cole’s numbers aren’t where they “should” be. His velo is at 98.1 mph and swinging strike rate at 18%, both career highs. I’m quite literally 0% concerned.
Berrios bounced back after a painful season debut. He’s fine and an all-formats must-start.
A rough 3rd inning capped by a Sean Murphy 3-R HR spoiled an otherwise great outing by McClanahan. He still fanned 8 and went 19 pitches more than his first outing so he’s building up. He looks great and I’m very excited about him this year.
Paddack’s velo was down over 2 mph and I’m not sure he should be rostered in anything but the absolute deepest formats.
Curious if anyone saw Nola’s start, I didn’t get a chance to, but it looks like he lost command of the fastballs (4-seamer and sinker), leading to the 3 BB and ending his day early. No concerns here.
Was it the nasty weather in Chicago that hampered Ray? It’s a great opponent, too, but I wouldn’t worry too much if you’re invested.
Lodolo flopped in his debut but has a 2-step next week. I’m wondering if the dud outing will depress the price enough or will people just see a 2-step (at SD, STL) from a stud prospect and jump? I think he’s worth going for in 12s or deeper right now. 10s are borderline and would 100% depend on the cut. One bad start isn’t taking me off him completely.
Hendricks getting smoked in PIT is rough. A 3-R shot by Ben Gamel was crusher in a 7-hit parade. He lives on a thin margin. It’ll be a risky 2-step next week v. TB and PIT.
VLAD GOES SUPER SAIYAN
The Yankees thought a busted finger could stop Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but they were wrong! He already had a homer when that happened and ripped two more after the finger injury. He added a double in for good measure, going 4-for-4 with 3 HR, 4 RBI, and 3 R.
MILLER STAYS HOT, TAGS 2
Owen Miller came into Tuesday’s game with three straight multi-hit efforts, giving him a .500 AVG and 1.342 OPS. He got his fourth with a pair of homers and a single, elevating him to .524 AVG and 1.593 OPS so far. Three of these four games have been 3 H efforts, too. So is there anything here with Miller or just a bananas .529 BABIP and 40% HR/FB rate sustaining him? Obviously, he isn’t going to be anywhere near this good, but he has usurped Bobby Bradley at 1B starting the last four games there and with playing time, there is some deep league appeal here. When he was graded by the prospect team last year, he got just a 40-hit tool, but with a 55 future. He appears to be improving that aspect of his game and at least hinting at the higher end of that skill early on with a 9% K and 4% SwStr rate. He feels like someone who can hit .260 with 15 HR if he maintains the playing time which definitely has deep league viability.
Just 4 SP wins and 1 extended RP win of note: Megill, Smyly, Cobb, Elder, and Whitlock.
Megill was brilliant again with even more velo (up .7 to 96.9) and near identical results, adding a third of an inning and losing a strikeout off his Opening Day appearance. He is a must-roster in all formats if he is somehow still available.
Smyly was pretty pedestrian at PIT, but if you streamed him, you were rewarded outside of just the 1 K. Quintana was pretty solid against his old team, as well. Both veteran lefties will have bout of streamer usefulness as long as they remain healthy. Smyly gets a trip to COL this weekend so no need to pick him up in daily leagues, but gets PIT against next week so consider him in FAAB this weekend while Q gets WAS on the weekend and rematches Smyly & the Cubs next week so he could be worth the pickup now in deep daily moves leagues.
Heaney was a popular sleeper, going around the 20th round in the Main Event, as many believed the Dodgers could be the team to maximize him. So far, so good. He led the day with a 24% SwStr rate and was excellent in the shortened outing. He gets CIN at home on the weekend and a trip to SD next week. He is rosterable in 12s or larger while at least worth a Watchlist inclusion in 10-team formats.
Nasty Nestor! Cortes didn’t get a ton of hype after an excellent 93 IP last year (2.90 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 21% K-BB), but the soft-tossing lefty got off to a strong start and his velo was up to a career-best 91.2 mph. There is some discrepancy on his SwStr because we are showing 8%, but I’m seeing 9 swinging strikes in 72 pitches, good for a 13% mark. With starts at BAL and v. CLE in his next two, I’m going for Cortes is just about any format right now.
Archer survived against the Dodgers, but I wouldn’t use this an impetus to scoop him everywhere. I’ve been a fan of his forever so I’m always keeping tabs on him in hopes of him recapturing his previous success. With a trip to KC coming up next week, I’d pick up Archer in deeper formats, but he is pretty far down the list of likely available guys for 10s and 12s.
The Sandoval-Luzardo game did NOT disappoint! I will say that the early game shadowing that had the pitchers in bright sun and then the shadow starting about 10-12 ft in front of them wreaked havoc on batters and maximized what these two were able to do. I’m not discounting their starts because of it, just pointing out that it likely garnered an extra K or two. Both are all formats gems, so check your waiver wire and make sure they are rostered. I still favor Sandoval over Luzardo, but they aren’t too far apart.
Seemed like L.Garcia was in cruise control a bit, pitching down the competition with a solid 4 IP. His velo was up 1.3 to 94.6 mph and I’m not worried about the modest numbers surrounding the scoreless appearance.
No was starting MadBum against HOU but he held his own. He has a 2-start setup next week at WAS and v. NYM. It’s very risky because of how reliant he is on the many batted balls he allows finding gloves. There aren’t many formats where I’d be considering him even with WAS on the slate.
I used to be a Kuhl fan when he was with PIT, hoping he could channel some of his sharp raw stuff into success, but it never really came together (4.44 ERA/1.42 WHIP) and he struggled to stay healthy as well. He survived 4 BB as his 18% SwStr was 3rd on the day, but of course he’s a Rockie so it will be very difficult to feel comfortable streaming him, even in a 2-step like next week (v. PHI, at DET). He is at least back on my Watchlist, though.
Speaking of guys I can’t quit no matter how many times I’m burned, Velasquez did enough to remain Watchlisted for me. He had 3 BB to just 2 Ks, but another discrepancy on SwStr (I’m efforting the reasoning behind these discrepancies, btw) where we have 8% to ESPN’s 11%. It’s a 2-pitch difference, but that’s the difference between average and below.
Mahle’s home woes weren’t in full effect here and he actually got a bit unlucky (though 3 of 4 R were unearned). I’m still not super confident using him at home against average or better offense, making him a tough start v. STL next week.
Brash had some of the most GIF-worthy pitches of the day, but that might have obscured the fact that he was blasted when they did make contact with a 71% HardHit rate (40% lg. avg). There is plenty of excitement and he is a must-roster in all 12s or deeper while being a bit more borderline in 10s depending on who you’re cutting and who else is available. He is behind Megill, Sandoval, Luzardo, and Cobb just from Tuesday’s slate of guys with a high probability of being available in 10s or smaller.
Speaking of Cobb, his velo was up nearly two ticks at 94.4 (+1.7), which he’d shown hints of in spring. He was really good last year and health has really been the only thing that slows him down. With some newfound strikeout stuff, he has all formats viability while healthy.
Elder was a 5th round pick in 2020 so last year was his pro debut and he enjoyed a strong 3-level campaign (A+/AA/AAA) and got an early call to the majors. He pitched well with a lead and the Braves trusted him to start the 6th which was encouraging even though he did start getting hit that 3rd time through w/HRs to Soto & Bell. This is why teams so often curb those outings at 5, but challenging Elder when they had the lead to do it (11-1) was good to see.
Bieber’s velo was up a little (+0.3) and he was clean through 5, but it all fell apart in the 6th. While he is coming off a major injury last year, there is still reason to believe this is just him tuning up on the job as opposed to indication of poor health. Either way, there is nothing actionable as I can’t imagine sitting him anywhere.
Hill was Hill, but I added Whitlock to our board because he is very interested. Whitlock followed Hill with 4 no-hit innings to secure the win. He has all-formats relevance because it seems that he will either be in this follower role which is ripe for wins potential or just outright starting when he is stretched enough to go 5+. They just paid him, they love him, and so do I!
Definitely wanted better out of streamer-types like Lauer and Hudson in good matchups. They remain streamers so if there is a better option, don’t hesitate to move on.
Kikuchi is in that same tier, though you weren’t necessarily starting him in Yankee Stadium. He is on the chopping block if the studs from Tuesday are available.
Brutal outing from Darvish. Just gotta eat this one, not much you can do.
Tough debuts from Oller and Romero as they both got in trouble early and often. Keep tabs on them in case they settle and shine some deep league viability, but they needn’t be rostered anywhere.
STOLEN BASES
Luis Robert 2 (4) – he had a supersized combo meal, adding a HR as well!
Nick Lodolo, P | CIN – He has allowed 3 through 3 innings of his debut on 5 H and 3 BB, but he does have 4 Ks… check that, he allowed a homer to Jose Ramirez literally as I was posting this so now it’s 5 ER through 3.7 IP. There is a lot of upside with Lodolo and a poor first outing will keep prices down in leagues where he is available. I’d consider him in 12s or deeper right now.
WTWT
Here is What To Watch Today for Wednesday, April 13th:
Getting this out a little later on a day when there are several day games so some of these starts have already begun
Lodolo’s MLB debut v. CLE and Triston McKenzie’s first start of the year.
Is Merrill Kelly 켈리’s standout spring indicative of a good season coming? His first start was solid and another against HOU would really drive up interest.
Jose Berrios and Gerrit Cole are both looking to rebound.
