Boxscore Bits: May 23rd, 2022

A few thoughts on the pitchers from the weekend’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

• Sandy Alcantara, Justin Verlander, Carlos Rodón, Alek Manoah, Joe Musgrove, Julio Urías, Michael Kopech, Kyle Wright, Shane Bieber, Adam Wainwright, Logan Gilbert, Aaron Nola, Joe Ryan, Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, Robbie Ray, Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진, Ian Anderson, Merrill Kelly 켈리 (bounced back from Dodger Dud, but draws ‘em again this wk), Jakob Junis, Michael Lorenzen, Paul Blackburn, Alex Faedo, Cole Irvin, Wade Miley, Jon Gray, Michael Wacha, Brad Keller, Kyle Hendricks

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

• Zach Eflin – Wow, what an outing against the Dodgers! A season-high 12 Ks is more than he had in his last three starts combined (11). His uncharacteristic 8% HR/FB (career 14%) is helping maximize the output of his strong 18% K-BB rate. I’m not seeing any reason behind the depressed HR rate so I expect it to work back toward his 1.3-1.4 level and take the ERA back into the low-4.00s. I’m starting him in 15s for the most part while using him as a team streamer in 12s and below. He gets at NYM and v. SF in his next two, neither of which are must starts.
• Nathan Eovaldi – The meltdown v. HOU felt like just a standard awful start as opposed to the beginning of his unraveling and that theory gained credence with a bounce back gem v. SEA including a season-high 11 Ks. Probably could’ve been in the Biz as Usual category, but wanted to give him some shine for such a good start.
• MacKenzie Gore – With Mike Clevinger back on the IL (triceps), it does give Gore a spot if they stay committed to a 6-man rotation and given how he’s pitching (2.06 ERA/1.14 WHIP) it certainly makes sense to do exactly that.
• Brady Singer – A pair of 7-shutout inning gems made him a key pickup in the NFBC this weekend. Small sample caveats apply (19.7 IP this yr), but he’s got his best K (24%) and BB (5%) rates with a 10-point spike in groundball rate (60%). He has dropped his fastball usage 13 points to 45%, funneling a lot of that into a more legitimate changeup (+7 pts to 11% usage). The 25-year-old could be laying the groundwork for a breakout season, though the challenges don’t let up with at MIN and v. HOU in his next two. Even if this is just a heater, he should still be rostered in more than 19% of Yahoo! and 6% of ESPN leagues.
• Hunter Greene – He followed the no-hit bid with a gem at TOR, going six strong on just 84 pitches. He now has a 1.93 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 21 Ks in his last 3 starts (18.7 IP). Greene will no doubt remain volatile, though the schedule sets up well for him to remain hot with CHC and WAS in his next two starts.
• Jeffrey Springs – Springs already seems to be on Drew Rasmussen’s level having reached 80 pitches and 5.7 IP last time out. The 29-year-old lefty has converted to the rotation and looks great thus far with a 1.77 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 19% K-BB rate in 20.3 IP since they started stretching him out. He gets NYY this week which is risky but I don’t see myself sitting him right now.
• Martín Pérez – I’m just waiting for the music to stop here and regression to hit hard, but he did the direct opposite of that on Friday with a shutout at HOUSTON!!! He has now allowed 3 ER in his last 6 starts combined and it hasn’t been an easy schedule: at OAK, HOU, at PHI, KC, BOS, and at HOU. I hate to be the wet blanket, but I just don’t buy this at all. A .273 BABIP and 0 HRs are doing all of the work here.
• Johnny Cueto – Back-to-back gems to open his MLB season and 12 Ks in 12 IP are both great, but I’m still viewing him as something like a 4.10 ERA/1.30 WHIP guy which makes him a deep league play at best.
• José Urquidy – A 10-K outing raised his K rate to just 17% which is telling… and alarming. This doesn’t change my outlook a ton. Even as a longtime fan of Urq, I’m still seeing him as a team streamer at best in 12s and 15s right now. A 4.08 SIERA isn’t too bad and his 10% SwStr should at least get him back to a low-20s K rate. Hopefully the .341 BABIP regresses back toward his .263 career mark to fix his uncharacteristically high WHIP (1.41).
• Taijuan Walker – Seven shutout innings at Coors is awesome, though it was likely on everyone’s bench (understandably, of course). Outside of a 6-run shellacking at Philly in his third of three straight appearances against them is the only real damage against him this year with just 3 ER in his other 26 IP. He has started to push his Ks up in these last two, but we’re still looking at a low-20s rate as the upside.
• Justin Steele – I had some early season interest in Steele with a lack of missed bats the main reason I moved on after picking him up in FAAB. He parlayed back-to-back outings against ARI into 19 Ks in 11 IP. Was that just facing the 29th team in wRC+ against lefties or some bankable improvement? The ineptitude of the D’Backs definitely helps, but I’m still starting Steele in deeper formats (15+) this week even with a trip to CIN on the docket.
• Austin Gomber – Back-to-back gems at Coors, though I’m not sure I’d ever really feel comfortable starting him there especially with just 5 Ks in the 13 innings of work (3.46 ERA/1.08 WHIP).

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

• Bailey Ober – Return from the IL was a success with 5 strong and his 78 pitches were right in line with his 75 pitch/start average. He is an easy start this week with KC on the docket.
• Chase Silseth – It wasn’t a great outing facing OAK again with Jed Lowrie and Seth Brown HRs doing the damage, but his velo held strong, he threw more secondary pitches, and struck out 6 thanks to 13 swings-and-misses (on 93 pitches). He gets TOR this week, a start I’d use in 12s and 15s while it’s more of a toss-up to stream in 10s.
• Tyler Wells – He’s just not delivering enough innings (~4 per start) or Ks (~3 per start) to be more than a standard streamer. He gets a 2-step next week at BOS and v. CLE after a trip to NYY this week.

Injury-Shortened

• Freddy Peralta – Peralta was rolling before with five straight gems heading into this one. He was having a decent enough start until opening the 4th with three straight line drive before being lifted with shoulder tightness. It was enough to send him to the IL and drop MIL back to a 5-man rotation with Aaron Ashby retaining a spot.
• Tarik Skubal – He was dealing, having thrown 5 shutout innings when was hit by a 100.4 mph screamer at the end of the 5th which ended his day prematurely. Skubal should be good to go for a rematch v. CLE later in the week.
• Frankie Montas – Montas was blasted in the right hand by a batted ball that ended his day after just 1.7 IP. The numbness subsided and X-Rays came back negative, so it seems like he avoided major injury here. He is showing last year’s breakout was plenty legit and I’m sure most of his fantasy managers are praying he gets dealt to a better team to improve his win potential.
• Steven Matz – He threw just 4 pitches before a shoulder injury ended his day and eventually sent him to the IL. Seven HRs in his three starts prior to this outing led to an ugly 1.9 HR/9, but his 22% K-BB rate kept me intrigued even through the long ball issues. This could be a substantial injury so while I’ll hold where I can in 12s and 15s, I’m not against a cut where you need the spot.
• Aaron Civale – Is this the beginning of his hit rate coming back to earth (11.0 H/9 this year; 8.5 career) or just beating up on a brutal offense? Probably a mix of both. His velo was up to a season-high 92.4 mph in this one and he attacked from the jump with an 87% first pitch strike rate. He did leave early due to a glute cramp, so it technically fits here, though it is unlikely to linger, and it didn’t stop him from a great outing.

Duds: The worst of the day

• Trevor Rogers – HRs in each of the first three innings saddled Rogers with a dud, his third of the year. I’m still having a hard time cutting him anywhere, though I’m OK with benching him. Using Game Score as a shorthand, he has the 3 duds along with 4 gems and a neutral outing. I am definitely concerned by the 4-point dip in Swinging Strike rate which has no doubt fueled the 8-point drop in K% to 21%. The changeup isn’t nearly as effective as last year and that seems to be the major key behind his struggles. The schedule certainly doesn’t make things easier with at TB this week and then a 2-step at COL and v. SF.
• Alex Wood – Wood now has a 6.26 ERA over his last five starts with just one good one in the bunch. He hasn’t reached 6 IP yet this year, either. A 3-point dip in SwStr (10%) and sky-high .378 BABIP are big issues, though I’m heartened by the 3.36 SIERA and as such will ride this out a bit longer. If you want to pass on the start at CIN this week, I get it, but just reserve him instead of full cut.
• Garrett Whitlock – 3 straight duds now with this one being the worst of the bunch against the weakest of the opponents. Too many walks hurt him at ATL and v. HOU while a 10-hit barrage was the culprit v. SEA. The schedule loosens up with BAL and CIN in his next two starts and if that doesn’t get him back on track, he will start popping up on waiver wires across multiple formats.
• Ranger Suárez – No shame in getting hit by LAD after facing them twice in a row. He’s a tough choice at ATL this week in anything smaller than 15s.
• Daniel Lynch – I try to avoid MIN where I can so I sat Lynch even after his gem in Coors. A 33-pitch, 3-run first inning had him fighting from behind from the jump and he couldn’t finish four. He gets a trip to MIN this week and knowing that I wouldn’t use him again, I cut him in a 15-teamer. I’m not averse to buying back for at CLE next week, though.
• Mitch White – This was always going to be more of an opener (2-4 IP max) than full on start, but it didn’t go all that well with a 2-R HR from Alec Bohm sealing his fate in the 3rd inning. I still like White a lot if he continues to stretch out and get regular turns in the rotation. We don’t know who is starting for LAD on Thursday as it could be White or Ryan Pepiot.

COMBO MEALS

Shoutout to ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast for coming up with the “combo meal” term when guys get a HR and SB in the same game. Here are the weekend (Fri-Sun) combo meals:

• Seth Brown – Friday

MULTI-HR/MULTI-SB

Guys with 2+ HR or SB over the weekend (Fri-Sun):

3 HR

• Josh Rojas
• Patrick Wisdom

2 HR

• Randy Arozarena
• Mookie Betts
• David Peralta
• William Contreras
• Rafael Devers
• Darin Ruf 러프
• Brian Serven
• Tyrone Taylor
• Frank Schwindel
• Bo Bichette
• Emmanuel Rivera
• Trevor Story
• Albert Pujols

2 SB

• Jurickson Profar
• Brett Phillips
• Ronald Acuña Jr.
• Dansby Swanson
• Ha Seong Kim

PLAYING TIME MONDAY

Who is playing more often lately?

• Luis González – With Wade and Belt IL’d, González is back up and has played daily since his recall. The Giants are starting to cultivate their own form of Devil Magic akin to the Cardinals with guys like González popping off seemingly out of nowhere. He has 2 HR/3 SB with a .324 AVG in 85 PA this year. Pay for some SBs and a .260ish AVG.
• Jake McCarthy – Probably only up due to a COVID hit on the D’Backs but did play all weekend. He has 5 HR/7 SB with an insane .400 AVG in 91 PA at Triple-A. Best case is deep league speed, though I’m not sure the playing time sticks when the COVID guys return.
• Christopher Morel – He started four straight (3 vR, 1 vL) for the Cubs before a Sunday off day. He made the jump from Double-A (though he did get 9 games at AAA last yr.) where he had clubbed 7 HR in 122 PA. He has some pop and speed while spotty contact holds the profile back. He is a deep league consideration at best, but he’s on the radar and another week of playing time would likely garner more attention in next weekend’s FAAB.
• Isaac Paredes – Brandon Lowe’s IL stint has cleared some room for Paredes – the return in the Meadows deal for TB – and he got off to a fast start with 3 HR last week. He only played 3 games with Vidal Bruján earning the other starts at 2B, but Bruján simply isn’t doing enough to keep the job. He has a 5 wRC+. A 5!!! I’m a Bruján guy, but damn, he’s been brutal and it will likely start to cost him time in favor of Paredes. Paredes’ strong plate skills are his calling card. I think AVG is his best shot at substantial fantasy impact with some league average pop.

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Monday, May 23rd:

• There are five Zack/Zachs going today: Wheeler, Greinke, Plesac, Logue, and Davies
• Can Berrios build on his gem last time out?
• Mikolas gets a major challenge with TOR coming to town
• David Peterson and Tucker Davidson were interesting deep league FAAB scoops this week and each get their first of two on the week