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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1060 – Memorial Day Mock Draft

6/1/22

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

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Boxscore Bits: June 1st, 2022

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Thursday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Tuesday’s Starters
# Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO TBF ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
1 Adam Wainwright STL 7 2 0 0 0 1 10 24 0.00 0.43 0 88.9 89.6 7%
2 Martín Pérez TEX 7 3 0 0 0 0 5 24 0.00 0.43 1 93.6 92.9 8%
3 Luis Castillo CIN 6 1 0 0 0 3 10 21 0.00 0.67 1 96.6 98.1 19%
4 George Kirby SEA 6 4 0 0 0 1 8 23 0.00 0.83 1 95.7 13%
5 Michael Wacha BOS 5.2 3 1 0 0 0 3 21 0.00 0.53 0 93.7 93.7 11%
6 Trevor Williams NYM 5 3 0 0 0 2 1 20 0.00 1.00 1 90.1 88.2 8%
7 Joey Wentz DET 4 1 0 0 0 0 4 13 0.00 0.25 0 93.9 13%
8 Jordan Montgomery NYY 7 4 1 1 1 1 4 25 1.29 0.71 1 93.5 92.6 10%
9 Jakob Junis SFG 4.1 3 1 1 0 2 3 18 2.08 1.15 0 91.7 8%
10 Cristian Javier HOU 4 4 1 1 0 4 4 20 2.25 2.00 0 94.2 7%
11 Frankie Montas OAK 7 7 2 2 1 0 5 26 2.57 1.00 0 96.9 96.4 8%
12 Devin Smeltzer MIN 6.2 6 2 2 0 0 4 26 2.70 0.90 1 90.5 8%
13 Blake Snell SDP 6 2 2 2 0 3 6 22 3.00 0.83 0 95.5 13%
14 Mitch Keller PIT 5 2 2 2 1 5 5 23 3.60 1.40 1 95.9 95.4 5%
15 Ryan Yarbrough TBR 6.2 6 3 3 2 0 3 27 4.05 0.90 0 86.5 7%
16 Ranger Suárez PHI 4.1 5 2 2 0 3 5 21 4.15 1.85 0 93.9 93 8%
17 Cal Quantrill CLE 6.1 6 3 3 0 0 5 26 4.26 0.95 1 93.9 94 5%
18 Eric Lauer MIL 4 5 3 2 1 3 6 21 4.50 2.00 0 93.8 9%
19 Justin Steele CHC 5 3 3 3 0 4 6 22 5.40 1.40 0 92.7 91.8 10%
20 Kevin Gausman TOR 5 6 3 3 1 1 5 22 5.40 1.40 1 95.2 13%
21 Julio Urías LAD 6 8 4 4 2 1 8 27 6.00 1.50 0 92.7 19%
22 Charlie Morton ATL 5 4 4 4 1 2 5 20 7.20 1.20 0 95.6 95.8 6%
23 Cole Sands MIN 4 5 4 4 1 4 4 21 9.00 2.25 0 91.8 12%
24 Humberto Castellanos ARI 4.2 7 5 5 1 2 5 22 9.64 1.93 0 90 91.1 9%
25 Rony García DET 5 7 6 6 1 1 7 23 10.80 1.60 0 92.6 8%
26 Lucas Giolito CHW 4.2 8 6 6 2 2 8 24 11.57 2.14 0 93 16%
27 Daniel Lynch KCR 4 9 6 6 1 3 2 25 13.50 3.00 0 95.2 93.5 13%
28 Patrick Corbin WSN 4.1 12 7 7 1 2 6 27 14.54 3.23 0 92.1 92.7 10%
29 Noah Syndergaard LAA 2.1 7 5 5 1 1 0 14 19.29 3.43 0 94.2 93.8 2%
30 Bryan Baker BAL 1.1 2 3 3 0 1 1 7 20.25 2.25 0 96.4 10%
Sorted by ERA

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Paul Sporer’s Weekly Chat – June 1st, 2022

Transcript is live!

1:06

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all! I can’t go the full hour+ today as I have an appointment, but let’s enjoy our 40 or so mins. together on the first day of June!

1:09

Rachel: Paul, when do we expect Royce Lewis back and full time SS? Also why no padding behind that wall? Thanks!

1:09

Paul Sporer: No idea why some walls aren’t cushier, never made much sense to me. I think something needs to open up for him to get back up for a bigger role or they need to give up on Nick Gordon as a starter

1:09

bart johnson: luis garcia or royce lewis in a re-draft?

1:11

Paul Sporer: Big Lewis fan, but I think we gotta go with the guy who is up in re-draft. Garcia is a legit prospect (well he has graduated in terms of prospect lists, but he’s just 22) and raking at AAA. I’m keeping a close eye on him

1:11

RTJ: How do you feel about Vinnie Pasquantino making any MLB impact this year?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1059 – The FAAB Whisperer ft. Vlad Sedler

5/31/22

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GUESTISODE

Your Interesting Pickups from the Main

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Boxscore Bits: May 31st, 2022

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Monday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Monday’s Starters
# Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO TBF ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
1 Pablo López MIA 6 3 0 0 0 4 5 23 0.00 1.17 0 92.9 92.7 12%
2 Tyler Wells BAL 6 2 0 0 0 1 3 21 0.00 0.50 1 94.2 10%
3 Drew Smyly CHC 3 0 0 0 0 1 3 10 0.00 0.33 0 93.2 14%
4 Framber Valdez HOU 9 2 1 1 0 3 7 30 1.00 0.56 1 94.1 11%
5 Ryan Feltner COL 7 4 1 1 1 1 6 26 1.29 0.71 1 95.1 93.9 14%
6 Aaron Ashby MIL 6 5 1 1 1 2 12 25 1.50 1.17 1 96.8 21%
7 Matt Swarmer CHC 6 5 4 1 2 1 6 24 1.50 1.00 0 91.1 12%
8 Zach Plesac CLE 6 5 1 1 1 0 5 23 1.50 0.83 0 93 10%
9 Glenn Otto TEX 6 4 2 1 0 3 4 25 1.50 1.17 1 93.2 93 8%
10 Kyle Gibson PHI 6 3 2 2 1 1 4 24 3.00 0.67 0 92.4 91.7 10%
11 Zac Gallen ARI 5.2 7 2 2 1 2 6 26 3.18 1.59 1 93.1 8%
12 Zach Thompson PIT 5.2 4 2 2 2 1 4 22 3.18 0.88 0 92.7 92.4 7%
13 Logan Webb SFG 8 4 3 3 3 0 10 28 3.38 0.50 0 92.9 92.3 15%
14 Packy Naughton STL 2.1 2 1 1 0 0 4 9 3.86 0.86 0 92.6 92.2 15%
15 Jon Heasley KCR 6 6 3 3 1 3 3 27 4.50 1.50 0 93.6 8%
16 Nick Martinez SDP 6 7 3 3 1 4 2 27 4.50 1.83 0 93.7 92.8 10%
17 Paul Blackburn OAK 6.2 5 4 4 2 0 5 28 5.40 0.75 0 90.9 91.4 11%
18 Walker Buehler LAD 6 7 4 4 2 1 7 25 6.00 1.33 0 94.8 95.1 8%
19 Dylan Bundy MIN 6 9 4 4 1 0 3 28 6.00 1.50 0 89.5 89.9 11%
20 Beau Brieske DET 5.2 6 4 4 3 2 4 24 6.35 1.41 0 94.4 91.8 10%
21 Ethan Small MIL 2.2 4 2 2 0 4 4 15 6.75 3.00 0 91.4 16%
22 David Peterson NYM 4.2 6 4 4 0 4 1 24 7.71 2.14 0 92.6 93.2 5%
23 Spencer Strider ATL 4.1 4 5 5 1 2 7 19 10.38 1.38 0 97.6 14%
24 Rich Hill BOS 4 7 6 6 2 2 5 21 13.50 2.25 0 88.8 7%
25 Drew Rasmussen TBR 3 5 5 5 2 3 3 17 15.00 2.67 0 95.2 10%
26 Erick Fedde WSN 1.1 8 6 6 1 1 0 12 40.50 6.75 0 92.4 2%
Sorted by ERA

Business As Usual: Nothing actionable

Notable Gems: The standouts who merit some extra attention

  • Logan Webb – Great outing for Webb that probably should’ve ended with 2 ER (not sure I’d have let him face Kyle Schwarber a 4th time), but the 10 Ks are great. His Ks have held him back a bit, but no complaints about a 3.52 ERA/1.16 WHIP in 61.3 IP. An easy auto-start.
  • Aaron Ashby – Beautiful outing from Ashby, especially just 2 BB in 6 IP. He has a 2.84 ERA/1.46 WHIP in 25.3 IP as a starter with 30 Ks. He will be in the rotation while Freddy Peralta is out which will be a long time and I’m starting him everywhere.
  • Glenn Otto – Solid start to the 2-step for Otto, despite just 4 Ks in 6 IP. I was really impressed by him doing well at HOU and at LAA before this start, too. He gets SEA and at CWS in his next two and I’m starting to gain confidence in him as a every time start in 15-teamers and deeper.
  • Tyler Wells – Wow, this was a shock! Six scoreless at Boston right now should count triple! He has posted a 1.64 ERA/0.73 WHIP at both NYY and BOS over his last two despite just 5 Ks. Wells gets CLE to finish off his 2-step and then a trip to KC next week. He is a team streamer in 12s and above, while being just a standard streamer in 10s.
  • Zach Plesac – Great start to a favorable 2-step for this standard streamer. Of course, the run was still a homer (1.5 HR/9). Maybe the new left field in Camden Yards will help him keep the ball in the yard this weekend.
  • Ryan Feltner – OK, is there something here? This was Feltner’s first start at home, and it was his best of the three! He now has a 3.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 17 IP with 20 Ks and 5 BB. The scary part is Coors, of course. Well that and rotation security as Antonio Senzatela returns tomorrow. I doubt they bump anyone to get Feltner in so he is probably the 6th man right now. He got the picture today because I’m not sure I’ll get another chance to feature him like this!
  • Zach Thompson – Great work at the Dodgers, but I still really only see him as a fringe deep league streamer right now. He showed some promise last year so if he can tap back into that swing-and-miss and bring the HRs back down, there could be some streamer viability down the line.
  • Matt Swarmer – 3 unearned runs made the results pretty strong (6 IP/1 ER), but I’m not sure there’s a lot here. He is a true 2-pitch guy throwing 91 mph. Oh yeah, and he’s 28 years old. I could see him being a useful bullpen piece, but not a consistent starter.

Decent Enough: Mostly biz as usual but with some commentary

  • Paul Blackburn – If you took the shot on Blackburn v. HOU and BOS, you’re wild, but also breathing a bit more easily after round 1. Hard to complain about 6.7 IP/4 ER/5 Ks against a team like HOU. He gets a visit from BOS this weekend.
  • Nick Martinez – The 11% BB rate pushes his WHIP to an ugly 1.42 WHIP and don’t sleep on how damaging that is to your bottom line. I think he is a streamer for 15s and deeper unless he really boosts his strikeouts (22% K, 12% SwStr).
  • Dylan Bundy – Wellll, if you took the shot on the 2-step because of the trip to DET in game 1, you’re not feeling great right about now. He allowed 4 ER with a 1.50 WHIP and has a trip to TOR on deck.
  • Jonathan Heasley – He has a -7% K-BB rate in 4 starts. NEGATIVE! SEVEN!! PERCENT!!!

Injury-Shortened

  • Drew Smyly – A right oblique prematurely ended a beautiful start for Smyly (3 no-hit IP). Stay tuned to see what happens with Smyly, but an IL trip could be in the offing.

Duds: The worst of the day

  • Spencer Strider – The defense burnt Strider in the first when Marcell Ozuna let a hit with an expected AVG of .120 fall in for a double and then Pavin Smith turned around a 99-mph heater. It wasn’t a bad pitch, Smith just did a great job getting to it. He still had 7 Ks, but it’s a tough result for those who gambled with him a trip to COL coming this weekend.
  • Drew Rasmussen – Oof! A 37-pitch first inning sank the start from the jump and he wound up allowing runs in all three innings. It’s his first true dud of the year, certainly nothing to be massively concerned about right now.
  • Ethan Small – Small got the spot start for the doubleheader and it didn’t go well. After two strong innings to start (2 H, 0 R, 4 Ks), it came unglued in the third with 4 walks and 39 pitches. He was sent back out after the doubleheader, but he will likely be back the next time they need an arm.
  • Erick Fedde – I totally understand if you streamed a dicey looking 2-step here at NYM and at CIN as Fedde was rolling in May with 1.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 23 Ks in 27.7 IP. It will tough to salvage the week at this point, but that won’t be easy as CIN has a 106 wRC+ against righties at home this year, good for 10th in the league.
  • Rich Hill – Hill had not allowed more than 4 ER for 59 starts per Alex Fast!

MULTI-HR/MULTI-SB

Guys with 2+ HR or SB over the weekend (Fri-Sun):

SBs:

HRs:

MINOR LEAGUE TUESDAY

Highlighting some key minor leaguers who could be the next big fantasy producers.

  • ¡Bonus Double Prospect! Vinnie Pasquantino/Nick Pratto | 1B, KCR – I’m just not sure how much longer than can stay committed to Carlos Santana and his 60 wRC+. I know there are some positives under the hood that have to regress including his .165 BABIP, but do they want to wait around to see it through or turn to Pasquantino and his 174 wRC+ through 197 PA at Triple-A. He has 14 HR and 3 SB with a .303/.396/.667 line. Pratto is an even higher pedigree 1B prospect who is doing fine in Triple-A in his own right with a 125 wRC+ in 174 PA and he’s already on the 40-man roster which might give him an edge, although there is a spot open for KC so it wouldn’t take a roster move to bring him up. I’d take shot on either in most formats when they get the call.
  • Eury Pérez | SP, MIA – The 19-year-old righty is just incredible. It is hard to see any sort of quick path to the majors given Miami’s depth, but he may damn well just force his way up. He has a 2.55 FIP and 0.97 WHIP in 34 IP with a 36% K, 7% BB, and 3.71 ERA. He was excellent last year – his first as a pro – splitting between A and High-A. Just remember the name because there is a lot of excitement surrounding him.

DRAFTKINGS GAME

WTWT

Here is What To Watch Today for Tuesday, May 31st:

  • Cristian Javier v. Frankie Montas should be a lot of fun
  • Thor gets a big challenge in the Bronx
  • Can Martin Perez keep it going?
  • Edward Cabrera is part of that Miami depth that allows them to take their time with Perez
  • Eric Lauer looks to rebound from a “meh” start last time out (4 BB, 1 K in 5 IP)
  • Kody Clemens makes his MLB debut in G2 of the doubleheader – Hook ‘em Horns!

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1058 – Ben Clemens Investigates ft. Ben Clemens

5/30/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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GUESTISODE

I said the wrong episode # at the beginning like a doofus!

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Boxscore Bits: May 27th, 2022

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Thursday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Thursday’s Starters
# Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO TBF ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
1 Frankie Montas OAK 7 3 1 0 0 2 11 27 0.00 0.71 0 96 95.7 19%
2 Devin Smeltzer MIN 7 2 0 0 0 1 6 23 0.00 0.43 0 88.6 9%
3 Mitch White LAD 4 2 0 0 0 2 2 16 0.00 1.00 0 93.5 3%
4 Aaron Nola PHI 8.1 5 1 1 0 0 10 31 1.08 0.60 1 92.7 92.4 14%
5 Nestor Cortes NYY 8 4 1 1 0 1 5 29 1.13 0.63 1 92.8 6%
6 Martín Pérez TEX 7 4 1 1 0 2 6 27 1.29 0.86 0 93 92.9 7%
7 Daniel Lynch KCR 5.1 7 2 2 0 2 6 25 3.38 1.69 0 94.2 16%
8 Ryan Yarbrough TBR 5.1 2 3 2 0 1 5 20 3.38 0.56 0 87.3 14%
9 Eric Lauer MIL 5 4 2 2 0 4 1 23 3.60 1.60 1 93.2 8%
10 Hyun Jin Ryu 류현진 TOR 5 6 2 2 0 1 1 21 3.60 1.40 1 89.3 3%
11 Tarik Skubal DET 7 5 3 3 0 1 5 27 3.86 0.86 0 94.1 95.5 11%
12 Kyle Wright ATL 6.2 3 3 3 1 2 5 25 4.05 0.75 0 94.3 93.7 14%
13 Patrick Corbin WSN 6.1 7 3 3 0 2 3 27 4.26 1.42 1 91.8 92.3 5%
14 Adam Wainwright STL 5 10 4 3 1 1 2 26 5.40 2.20 0 89 88.9 6%
15 Shohei Ohtani LAA 6 6 5 5 2 1 10 24 7.50 1.17 0 96.1 16%
16 Germán Márquez COL 6 6 5 5 0 3 2 27 7.50 1.50 0 95.3 94.4 6%
17 Konnor Pilkington CLE 3.1 7 3 3 0 4 4 21 8.10 3.30 0 91.4 15%
18 Hunter Greene CIN 5 7 5 5 3 2 6 24 9.00 1.80 1 98.3 19%
19 Michael Wacha BOS 4.1 7 5 5 1 0 2 20 10.38 1.62 0 93.8 93.4 8%
20 Humberto Castellanos ARI 4 10 6 6 1 1 1 23 13.50 2.75 0 89.6 90.4 4%
21 Dallas Keuchel CHW 2 7 6 6 2 2 4 15 27.00 4.50 0 88.7 9%
22 Justin Steele CHC 2 7 7 7 1 2 2 14 31.50 4.50 0 92.6 92.3 6%
Sorted by ERA

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1057 – Fireside Chat: 3 RP-to-SP Conversions

5/26/22

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FIRESIDE CHAT

RP-to-SP Converters

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Boxscore Bits: May 26th, 2022

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

A few thoughts on the pitchers from Wednesday’s games:

FOR STARTERS

Wednesday’s Starters
# Name Team IP H R ER HR BB SO TBF ERA WHIP W vFA (pi) vSI (pi) SwStr%
1 Cristian Javier HOU 5.2 3 0 0 0 1 9 21 0.00 0.71 1 93.5 18%
2 Erick Fedde WSN 6 4 0 0 0 1 6 22 0.00 0.83 1 92.9 11%
3 JP Sears NYY 5 3 0 0 0 2 5 21 0.00 1.00 1 93.6 11%
4 Aaron Ashby MIL 5.2 4 1 0 0 3 5 25 0.00 1.24 0 94.9 96.6 10%
5 Paul Blackburn OAK 5.1 1 0 0 0 5 2 21 0.00 1.13 1 92.4 92.5 5%
6 Lucas Giolito CHW 6 5 1 1 0 4 7 26 1.50 1.50 1 93.7 16%
7 Julio Urias LAD 6 4 1 1 0 3 3 22 1.50 1.17 0 93.9 7%
8 Dylan Bundy MIN 5.2 5 1 1 1 1 6 23 1.59 1.06 0 89.5 89.9 12%
9 Glenn Otto TEX 5 3 1 1 0 2 7 19 1.80 1.00 1 93.6 93.8 7%
10 Yu Darvish SDP 6.2 3 2 2 0 2 7 24 2.70 0.75 0 96.4 95.9 9%
11 Jakob Junis SFG 6 3 2 2 1 1 4 22 3.00 0.67 1 90.3 9%
12 Cal Quantrill CLE 6 6 2 2 0 4 3 26 3.00 1.67 0 93.6 93.1 7%
13 Ryan Feltner COL 5 3 2 2 0 2 7 21 3.60 1.00 0 94.9 93.6 11%
14 Luis Castillo CIN 5 4 2 2 0 1 6 20 3.60 1.00 1 96.6 96.7 10%
15 Tyler Wells BAL 5 5 2 2 0 0 2 20 3.60 1.00 0 93.9 16%
16 Rich Hill BOS 5 2 3 2 1 1 1 18 3.60 0.60 0 87.8 83.3 5%
17 Robbie Ray SEA 6 7 3 3 2 1 10 26 4.50 1.33 0 94 24%
18 Rony Garcia DET 4 3 2 2 1 2 5 17 4.50 1.25 0 93.3 9%
19 Drew Rasmussen TBR 5 6 3 3 1 2 7 21 5.40 1.60 1 95.8 10%
20 Reid Detmers LAA 6 5 5 5 2 1 3 24 7.50 1.00 0 93.4 14%
21 Charlie Morton ATL 4.1 9 4 4 1 1 4 23 8.31 2.31 0 95.1 94.5 10%
22 Kyle Hendricks CHC 4 5 4 4 1 1 1 18 9.00 1.50 0 87.5 87 3%
23 Ranger Suarez PHI 4.1 6 5 5 1 4 4 21 10.38 2.31 0 92.6 91.9 7%
24 Zach Thompson PIT 3 7 4 4 1 0 3 15 12.00 2.33 0 92.4 92 8%
25 Cody Poteet MIA 3 4 5 5 1 3 1 16 15.00 2.33 0 95.3 95.5 10%
26 Thomas Szapucki NYM 1.1 7 9 9 4 3 2 13 60.75 7.50 0 94.6 8%
Sorted by ERA

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Paul Sporer’s Chat – May 25th, 2022

Transcript is below!

1:33

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, pardon me for being late!

1:34

Scott TINSTAAPP: Paul my man. Have you given up on Daniel Lynch for this year? I was really encouraged start of the season but the walks have returned and I’m getting worried that he’s a cut even in 15 teamers here soon.

1:35

Paul Sporer: He’s one of those guys on the cusp. You pick them up hoping they’re breaking out and can be reliable, but you know that there is still a chance, a pretty good chance that it’s not and they will be a cut eventually. He will almost certainly be pickup-worthy again in the near future and could go through that cycle 3-4 times this year if it isn’t his leap year

1:35

Gabbagool: Patience on Baez is wearing thin…what’s going on here?

1:40

Paul Sporer: Pitchers aren’t giving him fastballs and it’s hurting. His fastball rate is down 10 pts with 6 pts of that going into sliders which are eating him alive (.318 OPS in 44 PA… sliders have ended almost as many of his PA as fastballs at 45 – he has a .791 OPS against heat)

1:40

David: Any thoughts on how soon Vinnie Pasquantino is called up and his ROS numbers when up?

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