12/9/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Aaron Judge stays in NYY
• Xander Bogaerts to SDP
• Willson Contreras to STL
• Brandon Nimmo stays in NYM
• Josh Bell to CLE

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Transcript is available now!

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12/5/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Jacob deGrom to TEX
• Justin Verlander to NYM
• Clayton Kershaw stays with LAD
• Where does Carlos Rodón wind up?
• Kyle Gibson to BAL

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12/2/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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10 Qs About Justin’s SP Rankings

• Is it health or performance that keeps Frankie Montas down?
• Will Jordan Montgomery and Miles Mikolas be negatively impacted by the shift rule changes?
• What concerns do you have about Dylan Cease v. the market?
• How do you feel about Zach Eflin now that he’s a Ray?
• Did Reid Detmers summer breakout not sell you?

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11/29/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Hunter Renfroe & Gio Urshela to LAA
• José Abreu to HOU
• Mike Clevinger to CWS

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Looking at the fantasy outlook from LA’s bevy of moves plus their division rival signs a star 1B!

Renfroe traded to LAA

Hunter Renfroe traded to LAA for Janson Junk (#7 on LAA 2022 Prospect List), Adam Seminaris (#18), and Elvis Peguero (#33)

The trade of Brandon Marsh and continued struggles of Jo Adell (77 wRC+ in ’22; 68 career) left the Angels with a corner outfield opening. Renfroe is a 31-year-old power hitter who will join his 5th team in as many seasons (SD, TB, BOS, MIL) and has been an above average hitter in three of the last four seasons, averaging 35 HR per 600 PA with a 110 wRC+. The park move is slightly a bonus for Renfroe. Angel Stadium and American Family Field have the same HR factor for righties at 112 while Angel Stadium is three points clear of AFF in overall park factor at 103. He does lose a bit across the division mainly due to the Cincinnati-for-Oakland trade while the HOU-SEA-TEX and CHC-STL-PIT trios essentially offset one another, but the shift to a balanced schedule this year mitigates that difference a bit.

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One downside I have noticed in this stat-heavy era of fantasy baseball is that we sometimes struggle to see potential breakouts from guys who don’t have clear indicators in their underlying data. I understand why, but it can lead to glossing over growth candidates who take development strides beyond what their numbers suggested.

Trent Grisham | SDP, OF | 271 ADP – 63rd OF

It was an unquestionably bad season at the dish for Grish. He posted a career-low 83 wRC+ with 17 HR, 7 SB, and a career-high 29% K rate in 524 PA. He played enough strong defense to net a second Gold Glove win and put up a third straight 2-WAR season. He had the desired 100-point AVG/OBP split but that’s less impressive when he hit just .184! He values his walks with an 11% rate this past season and for his career, but perhaps being a bit more aggressive would favor him.

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11/18/22

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Teoscar Hernández traded to SEA
• Kyle Lewis traded to ARI
• Joc Pederson & Martin Perez take QO
• Tyler Anderson to LAA

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A quick little lineup of hitters with some upside given their current draft price (Oct thru mid-Nov):

CATCHER

Jonah Heim | TEX | 286th ADP; 18th C

Finished as 14th C on Auction Calculator

Heim was pacing toward a helluva season (18 HR, .263 AVG) before the bottom absolutely fell out in the final two months. Sure, some of it was regression from his .785 OPS through July but this was egregious. He hit .157/.244/.286 from August on with a comically low .167 BABIP. Even as a flyball pull hitter (a rough combo for BABIP), this is just absurd. This feels like small sample bad luck as both his K% and BB% rates were incrementally better in the ugly stretch. The fall-off paired with a catching boom has pushed Heim down to the 18th C off the board, a price I’m more than willing to pay as I think he’s a top 15 C with top 10 upside.

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Transcript is live!

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