Author Archive

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1195 – Manoah Returning, Bradish’s Breakout, and Surprising All-Stars

7/7/23

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

3 UP, 3 DOWN

  • UP: Griffin Canning 24% K-BB, 3.91 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in L30
  • Michael Wacha hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER since 4/26 (1.19 ERA, 0.87 WHIP in 60 IP)
  • Kyle Bradish’s breakout is upon us (2.51 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 20% K-BB in 46.7 IP)
  • DOWN: Keibert Ruiz has a 39 wRC+ in the L30 days
  • Jake Burger has 6 HR, but just a .152 AVG & 54 wRC+ in the L30
  • Joey Meneses still powerless (2 HR) & now the AVG is sinking (.213 in L101 PA)

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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 7th

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Pardon the very late post on today’s SP chart. If it’s not up the night before, it’s usually up by 8am CT, but I had the podcast and a conference call this morning and I just couldn’t get it done last night.

With the All-Star break on the horizon, I’m long overdue for an SP rankings update, so stay tuned for that!

Friday, July 7th Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK NOTE
1 Zac Gallen ARI PIT x x x 111.1 3.15 1.08 22% 28th 4 ER in each of his last 2 v. TBR and LAA counterbalanced by 16 Ks and a 1.00 WHIP in the 13 IP
2 Luis Castillo SEA at HOU x x x 100.1 3.05 1.07 21% 14th Does have a pretty sharp home/road split but I’m not sitting him in any format
3 Andrew Abbott CIN at MIL x x x 37.1 1.21 0.88 20% 9th 12 Ks in his first 3 starts had some wondeirng where that dominance from the minors was; 30 Ks in 3 starts since then!
4 Zack Wheeler PHI at MIA x x x 98.1 4.03 1.19 22% 21st Like so many aces this yr, he has more than the occasional dud (relative to his established dominance) but it’s not actionable as he’s still an easy auto start
5 Bailey Ober MIN BAL x x x 76.2 2.70 0.95 20% 8th After allowing 5 HR in a 3-start run that saw his HR/FB start to regress, he has B2B HR-free outings w/16 Ks in 13 IP
6 Hunter Brown HOU SEA x x x 91 3.76 1.25 20% 17th The rookie righty is fulfilling the lofty preseason expectations and sits at SP42 coming into this start
7 Justin Verlander NYM at SDP x x x 64 3.66 1.19 15% 4th A 3-run inning in HOU is the only real blemish over his L4: 1.80 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 19% K-BB in 25 IP
8 Yu Darvish SDP NYM x x x 80 4.84 1.23 18% 7th Still holding a Top 30 K-BB despite the near-5.00 ERA… I can’t see myeslf taking him out of the lineup
9 Corbin Burnes MIL CIN x x x 101.1 4.00 1.13 15% 2nd Hasn’t been the mega ace we expected this yr, but he has a 3.42 ERA since those 10 ER in his first 2 starts and I’m still starting him everywhere
10 Dylan Cease CHW STL x x x 96.2 4.10 1.31 17% 6th Had a huge June (2.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 28% K-BB) but then a modest outing at OAK (5.3 IP/3 ER) reminds us he’s not fully back to his ’22 self
11 Charlie Morton ATL at TBR x x x 90.2 3.57 1.44 16% 13th The ERA, W, and Ks have him at SP41 so if you can eat the hideous WHIP, he’s a set it and forget type
12 Sandy Alcantara MIA PHI x x x 107.2 4.93 1.25 12% 16th If he can push his 62% LOB rate back toward his 73% career mark, there’s a strong 2H on tap, but there’s no guarantee unless the changeup gets a lot better
13 Jordan Montgomery STL at CHW x x x 98.2 3.28 1.24 16% 22nd Raising his trade profile over the L7 with a 1.66 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 17% K-BB in 43.3 IP
14 Aaron Civale CLE KCR x x x 45.2 2.96 1.18 10% 30th Just a meager 9% since returning from the IL, but can’t argue w/the 3.00 ERA & 1.24 WHIP in 33 IP… great matchup, too!
15 Carlos Rodón NYY CHC x x #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 21st He’s back! Only reached 58 pitches in his last rehab outing (0 ER in 3.7 IP) so this could be a sub-5 IP outing even if he’s throwing well
16 Ross Stripling SFG COL x x 37.1 6.51 1.50 12% 18th Not sure how stretched out he is with 50 and 24 pitches in his 2 outings off the IL
17 Tyler Glasnow TBR ATL x 36 4.50 1.33 27% 1st A .400+ wOBA for a team over a month period is absurd… no issues w/anyone skipping this spot
18 Griffin Canning LAA at LAD x 71.1 4.29 1.16 17% 11th Rough 2nd inn. spoiled his ARI outing, though he was probably a sit in most spots anyway… I’m a fan, but likely passing at LAD
19 Rich Hill PIT at ARI x 94 4.50 1.38 13% 25th Might be without Corbin Carroll, but still not a matchup I’d risk w/Hill even w/their meager output over the L30
20 Daniel Lynch KCR at CLE x 41.1 4.14 1.23 9% 20th Turning a corner since the 7 ER Cincy dud? 2.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in L3 incl. starts v. TBR & LAD, though just a 3% K-BB
21 Tony Gonsolin LAD LAA 61 3.69 1.11 9% 3rd ERA is up nearly 2 runs over his L3 starts (9.42 ERA, 1.70 WHIP, 9% K-BB) and I’m not sure it gets much better even w/Trout out for LAA
22 Cole Irvin BAL at MIN x 31.1 6.32 1.69 10% 28th Nice 3.44 ERA since his return from AAA despite an ugly 1.49 WHIP… be careful
23 Alek Manoah TOR at DET x 58 6.36 1.90 2% 20th It’s a good matchup coming of a 10-K gm in AA, but it’s probably best to wait-and-see… I would pick him up & reserve where available
24 Alex Faedo DET TOR x 26 5.54 0.92 23% 23rd Excellent K-BB in 5 starts before his injury, though the 6 HRs (2.1 HR9) were an issue
25 Jameson Taillon CHC at NYY 63.2 6.93 1.52 14% 29th There are no matchups where I’m comfortable starting Jamo these days
26 Trevor Williams WSN TEX 85 4.34 1.42 10% 10th No thanks
27 Cody Bradford TEX at WSN x 21.2 4.98 1.15 19% 23rd Threw 2.3 perfect IP on Monday so I can’t imagine this is more than a 2-3 IP outing
28 Luis Medina OAK at BOS 53.2 6.37 1.64 7% 15th No thanks
29 Austin Gomber COL at SFG 84 6.64 1.56 8% 12th #NeverGomber
30 Brennan Bernardino BOS OAK 26.2 2.70 1.09 18% 30th The expectation is that this is an opener setup for Brandon Walter (4.74 FIP, 1.62 WHIP at AAA)
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 League

 


Starting Pitcher Chart – July 6th

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – July 5th, 2023

Transcript is available!

1:03

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Let’s talk some baseball!

1:03

Jake: Confidence mets can still make the playoffs?

1:04

Paul Sporer: Like 20% or so… wildcard still very much in play

1:04

DR J: I know he’s not coming back this year, but any information on Pasquantino health outlook and what post labrum surgery recovery looks like?

1:04

Paul Sporer: Shoulders can be really tough on power and he already wasn’t a premiere power guy… I’m nervous for Vinnie P

1:04

Phil: 12 team H2H, torn between Henry Davis and Alvarez.  Who do you prefer ROS?

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Starting Pitcher Chart – July 5th

Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1194 – Buy Low SPs, 2024’s #1 Pick, + 3 Up/3 Down

7/3/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

BUY LOW SPs

Read the rest of this entry »


Starting Pitcher Chart – July 3rd

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

FYI: The site is off tomorrow so the Tuesday SP Chart is TBD. 

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1192 – SPs On the Rise, Young Cs, and Wk 15 2-Start SPs

6/30/23

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

PATREON

SPs MOVING UP

YOUNG CATCHERS

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Starting Pitcher Chart – June 30th

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Friday, June 30th Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK NOTE
1 Shane McClanahan TBR at SEA x x x 93 2.23 1.12 17% 14th Left early v. KC on 6/22 (back) but I’m ready to slot him back into the lineup after the extra time between starts
2 Pablo López MIN at BAL x x x 96 4.41 1.16 23% 8th K surge has been awesome w/9+ in each of his L3 and a career best 30% rate for the year
3 Justin Steele CHC CLE x x x 79 2.62 1.06 17% 10th Looks great in 2 starts off the IL w/12 Ks, 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 2 Ws
4 Jon Gray TEX HOU x x x 81 2.89 1.05 14% 14th TOR dud is the lone blip in an 8-start run during which he’s posted a 1.97 ERA and 0.84 WHIP
5 Bobby Miller LAD at KCR x x x 32.2 4.13 1.29 13% 26th B2B duds after 4 gems to open his career with BB looking like the biggest issue (10%)
6 Freddy Peralta MIL at PIT x x x 81.1 4.65 1.33 16% 27th BB rate up to 11% in L8 as he’s allowed at least 3 ER in all but 2 and yet one of the 2 ER gms is v. PIT so I’m sticking w/him here
7 Bryce Miller SEA TBR x x x 55.2 3.88 0.97 17% 9th Hit that first rookie wall w/15 ER in B2B duds, but has rebounded w/a 2.60 ERA & 0.99 WHIP since then
8 José Berríos TOR BOS x x 95 3.60 1.22 15% 13th While he has returned to previous trustworthy state, there are still some shallow lg sits if you’re playing it safely
9 James Paxton BOS at TOR x x 42.1 3.19 1.02 25% 4th Don’t be afraid to sit given the matchup and fact that he left his last start w/a knee issue
10 Josiah Gray WSN at PHI x x 89.1 3.43 1.40 9% 16th 3 rough outings in L6 and surprise, he allowed 2 HR in each! PHI’s 2% HR rate v. R at home is 3rd lowest in the lg w/just 2 10+ HR guys
11 Osvaldo Bido PIT MIL x x 15.2 3.45 1.47 18% 28th ERA can’t survive w/that WHIP so something has to give… this is a good enough matchup to play the hot hand, but be very careful here
12 Dean Kremer BAL MIN x x 88 4.50 1.36 15% 23rd Hasn’t paid for his 5 HR in the L2 starts with just 4 ER (6 total R); L7 K surge (24%) and spicy matchup are enough to take a shot in a lot of spots
13 Alex Cobb SFG at NYM x x 78.2 3.09 1.37 16% 22nd Your ability to take on the WHIP risk for a good ERA and solid W potential will determine how viable a streamer he is for you
14 Luis Severino NYY at STL x x 36 5.25 1.50 10% 7th 2+ BB in each of his L4 and has eclipsed 5 IP in just 1 of them… would probably give a half “x” in 12s if that key existed
15 Griffin Canning LAA ARI x 65.1 3.99 1.16 17% 4th 6 scoreless in Coors dropped ERA to 2.61 in L7 w/a 1.05 WHIP and 20% K-BB… not a must-start v. ARI, but hold even if you pass here
16 Cristopher Sánchez PHI WSN x 13.1 4.05 1.05 21% 20th I’m keeping tabs on him for deep lg pickup and if that changeup can be a true K pitch (7 Ks in 11 PA w/it so far), there’s some real upside here
17 Michael Soroka ATL MIA x 9.2 8.38 1.86 -2% 12th Looked great in 3 starts after being sent down (1.97 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 14% K-BB) so I might pickup now even if I pass on the first start back
18 Cal Quantrill CLE at CHC 59.1 5.61 1.42 5% 21st Fresh off the IL and did allow 14 ER in his 2 starts prior to the absence… was that injury indication or signs of major trouble?
19 Ronel Blanco HOU at TEX 35 4.63 1.51 12% 5th June Gauntlet continues: LAA, TOR, CIN, LAD and now TEX… has survived 12% BB and 7 HR during this run
20 Seth Lugo SDP at CIN 51.2 4.01 1.32 16% 3rd Solid team streamer, but there’s no need to take this risk, especially fresh off the IL
21 Bryan Hoeing MIA at ATL 35 2.31 1.20 11% 1st Do we have yet another Marlins gem on our hands? Perhaps, but he hasn’t earned confidence to run at ATL yet
22 Tanner Banks CHW at OAK 18 4.50 1.17 18% 30th TanBan isn’t really stretched out enough to take advantage of this matchup
23 Michael Lorenzen DET at COL 77 3.97 1.16 13% 18th Has become a deep league team streamer and Coors is of course a skip
24 Carlos Carrasco NYM SFG 48 6.19 1.56 5% 10th Hasn’t gone 5 IP in any of the last 3 starts and I’m not eager to stream against SFG right now
25 Graham Ashcraft CIN SDP 69 7.17 1.67 7% 15th Perhaps the biggest spring riser to become a stone cold flop
26 Alec Marsh KCR LAD #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 17th Tough draw for his MLB debut
27 Matthew Liberatore STL NYY 27.1 5.60 1.65 5% 19th Lack of development from the guy we saw last yr should have him on wires in virtually every lg
28 Tommy Henry ARI at LAA 62.2 4.31 1.37 7% 13th Can’t imagine starting any single-digit K-BB v. LAA
29 Luis Medina OAK CHW 48.2 6.84 1.62 9% 20th Just too inconsistent
30 Austin Gomber COL DET 77 7.01 1.61 7% 15th #NeverGomber
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues

 


Starting Pitcher Chart – June 29th

D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports

Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their season performance, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness over the last 30 days, my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a risky stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Thursday, June 29th Starter Notes
RK PITCHER TM OPP 10 12 15+ IP ERA WHIP K-BB wOBA RK NOTE
1 Joe Musgrove SDP at PIT x x x 60.1 3.88 1.26 16% 27th Fewer than 6 IP just 1x in his L6 with 8 total ER across the 36.3 IP
2 Max Scherzer NYM MIL x x x 70.2 3.95 1.17 21% 30th B2B gems after those 2 duds at ATL and v. NYY have hopefully assuaged concerns w/him
3 Shane Bieber CLE at KCR x x x 100 3.69 1.23 12% 22nd 4 HR in his L2 have fueled 9 ER; has allowed 3 or fewer ER in 12 of 15 starts, but 21 ER in the other 4 highlights the risk
4 Jesús Luzardo MIA at BOS x x x 90.2 3.77 1.19 22% 3rd Not an easy matchup, but I don’t find myself sitting him in any format
5 Clarke Schmidt NYY at OAK x x x 77 4.32 1.42 16% 23rd Has essentially been 5-and-dive in his L7 though it’s hard to argue w/the 2.19 ERA in that time
6 Brayan Bello BOS MIA x x 66 3.27 1.27 14% 11th Nice 11-start run since the 5 ER Marathon Day game: 2.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 14% K-BB
7 J.P. France HOU at STL x x 53.1 3.54 1.26 11% 13th Putting up some nice results despite modest core skills, I particularly like that he has 6+ IP in each of his L5
8 Chris Bassitt TOR SFG x x 93.2 4.32 1.21 12% 6th ERA is up over a run after 3 straight duds: velo is fine, but he’s using the fastball less & it’s getting smashed
9 Lance Lynn CHW at LAA x x 90 6.40 1.49 19% 2nd 23/3 K/BB in his L2 starts and an out shy of B2B quality starts, but there’s still heavy risk in LAA
10 Taijuan Walker PHI at CHC x x 83.1 4.10 1.24 11% 25th Reigned in HR rate (4 in L10 after 7 in F6) has sparked a major run (2.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) despite modest skills (13% K-BB)
11 Patrick Sandoval LAA CHW x 75.2 4.16 1.47 8% 24th Good matchup, but can you afford the gamble of that insane WHIP? Be careful
12 Kyle Hendricks CHC PHI x 34.2 2.60 0.98 7% 15th His already-light K rate has evaporated (13%) but the results since his debut are fantastic: 2.08 ERA, 0.86 WHIP… a 5% K-BB looms, though
13 Brandon Pfaadt ARI TBR x 23.2 8.37 1.65 9% 10th Looks great in AAA w/a 3.18 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 22% K-BB so I’m definitely picking him back up, but not necessarily starting v. TBR
14 Luis L. Ortiz PIT SDP x 45.2 3.74 1.62 4% 9th Coming off his best start of the yr, but a 1.56 June WHIP undercuts the 3.24 ERA
15 Hogan Harris OAK NYY x 33 4.91 1.12 10% 25th Was rolling before the TOR dud, I still like him in deeper formats bc the low W probability makes OAK guys a tough start in many spots
16 Adrian Houser MIL at NYM x 40.1 4.02 1.54 7% 21st 3 gems, but they’ve come v. TBR-HOU-CIN while 2 of the 4 duds have come v. KCR-OAK so he’s really tough to time
17 Cody Bradford TEX DET 14.1 5.65 1.26 12% 18th Essentially threw a bullpen on Monday so I’m surprised he’s going today, but that’s what I’m seeing everywhere
18 Reese Olson DET at TEX 24.2 4.74 1.05 22% 5th Has been really good outside the ATL start (6 ER) w/7 ER in his 4 other starts combined, but this matchup is super scary
19 Yonny Chirinos TBR at ARI 48.1 3.91 1.14 4% 3rd That paltry K-BB finally caught up to him w/an 8 ER bomb v. KCR… can’t trust him v. ARI
20 Zack Greinke KCR CLE 81.1 5.31 1.23 15% 8th Great work in May (2.30 ERA) erased by a June Swoon (9.00) and highlights why I rarely want to take the risk of starting him
21 Emmet Sheehan LAD at COL 12 1.50 0.58 7% 16th The rookie has a sparkling ERA in his 2 starts, but that paltry 7% K-BB could drive some quick regression in Coors… hold but don’t start
22 Adam Wainwright STL HOU 46.2 6.56 1.82 5% 17th Can’t find a start for him in any format right now
23 Chase Anderson COL LAD 42 5.79 1.45 8% 18th Absolutely not
24 TBD SFG at TOR #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 12th Stripling is listed at most outlets but he threw 3 IP on Wednesday
Recommendations for Roto 5×5 Leagues