It’s hard to come up with bargain-type players in the very early rounds, but Jeff gave y’all four in the Top 50 so I wanted to come up with at least a couple. I don’t want to overstate things and pretend like Marcus Semien is disrespected, but I do feel like the modern-day Ironman could easily go 10-12 picks higher without incident and in fact does on occasion with a minimum pick of 20. That should be his average pick as far as I’m concerned. He has missed just 1 game in the last four full seasons, leading MLB in plate appearances for all four. He isn’t just some mediocre compiler, toting 124, 131, and 138 wRC+ totals in three of those four seasons while averaging 27 HR-13 SB-94 R-77 RBI per 600 PA. But sure, take CJ Abrams ahead of him.

Yes, it feels crazy to have Mike Trout on a breakout/sleeper list and yet here we are! I obviously understand the issues with his health, but he never actually performs poorly when on the field and so I’m more than willing to take the discounted price in hopes of him spiking a 130+ game season this year while enjoying the games I do get if he does wind up falling short again. He obviously looks good by every projection system and he’s healthy right now so let’s ride with one of the best players to ever lace ‘em up.

I haven’t been shy about my desire to simply wait on Oneil Cruz instead of paying the insane premium for Elly De La Cruz, something I even said in my Busts articles that featured EDLC. Cruz brings a bit of risk himself coming off a 9-game season thanks to a broken leg last year and has just 98 games of MLB experience in all, but his electric set of skills seems primed to breakthrough as long as his health cooperates, and I haven’t been afraid to buy in.

Evan Carter isn’t a risk-free pick as there is some concern that he will sit against lefties, but I’m a sucker for young players with brilliant plate discipline and speed as well as enough pop to do some damage while being part of a premium lineup.

Anthony Volpe grinded through his rookie season with just an 84 wRC+, but the Yankees stayed committed to him for 601 PA and he managed to grind out a 21 HR/24 SB season. Meanwhile, his biggest weakness – the glove – became a strength resulting in a Gold Glove win. The underwhelming slash line now has his ADP trending lower than it did last year when he hadn’t taken a major league plate appearance which is wild to me. The 23-year-old still has a sky-high ceiling and while a repeat wouldn’t necessarily be worth his ADP, I’m willing to take the risk because the upside is a Top 25 hitter.

Gabriel Moreno’s first big MLB sample (380 PA) was just OK with a 103 wRC+, 7 HR, and 6 SBs. That said, his .284 AVG was 2nd among Cs with at least 350 PA and he had a postseason power surge with 4 HRs in 70 PA during the Diamondbacks run to the World Series generating some excitement for his age-24 season. The standout AVG gives him a solid floor to build upon while a mix of power improvement and more playing time could double that home run total. Another 6+ SBs is a sneaky bonus contribution as well. He has multiple avenues toward a breakout campaign.

A paltry .224 AVG and residence on one of the league’s worst teams keep Jack Suwinski’s profile low. His proponents see the 26 HR/13 SB and 112 wRC+ as reasons to buy Captain Jack. He offsets his 32% K rate with a robust 14% BB rate which fueled a 115-point split between his AVG and OBP, putting him in position to keep his SB opportunities up even when the hits aren’t falling. A league average 11% swinging strike rate and 6th-best Chase rate in baseball (22%; lg. avg is 32%) say he’s just not flailing up there and could even improve the K rate with some adjustments, too. That Pirates lineup is laced with upside candidates and could be spry enough to deliver a solid boost to Suwinski’s 63 R and 74 RBI totals, too.

Jackson Merrill is battling for a roster spot in Spring Training and helping his case by shifting to the outfield. Outside of Tatis, the SD outfield is barren which has created this fantastic opportunity for Merrill to make the team. He has a contact-heavy approach that has driven a .295 AVG in 881 minor league plate appearances along with 14 HR/21 SB per 600 PA. He’s a longshot for a massive breakout and intsead might only be something like a .265 AVG with a double-double – essentially something akin to Jeremy Peña’s 2023 – but as a post-300 pick instead of a top 120 pick like Peña was last year, that’s a nice return. Mar. 21st update: He has made the team as a starting outfielder and as such, his ADP has surged. I’m still very interested at this price point, but be prepared to pay up now if you still like Merrill!

Like my other D-Backs entrant, Alek Thomas enjoyed a postseason power spike that could be a harbinger for the 2024 season. He also hit 4 HR and only needed 59 PA to do it after just 9 in 402 PA during the regular season. I love betting on young promising bats who use an elite glove to guarantee their playing time as they find their footing at the dish. We haven’t seen a ton from Thomas yet with just a 72 wRC+ in 813 career PA, but he has the speed to boost both his AVG and SB output even if the power doesn’t come through in a significant way this year.

Veterans have upside! DJ LeMahieu is entering his age-35 season coming off a modest 101 wRC+ output in 562 PA. I’m not here to make the case that he’s going to return the .300s with his AVG as he’s at just .258 in his last 1782 PA, but he still takes his walks, sits atop a strong lineup, and even hit 15 HRs last season. His post-300 ADP means I’m not relying on him so if he stays bad, I can easily move, but runs aren’t an easy find late in drafts and there’s a world where he finds one last spurt of health and delivers a .275+ AVG with 85+ R. Unlikely, but far from impossible. Mar. 21st update: A foot injury has put his Opening Day status in doubt a bit. I’m not as aggressively chasing him as much, but there has at least been some good news lately to where he’s not totally off the board.

While it might be a little on the nose, it’d be more surprising to not include Elly De La Cruz on a “Bust” list at his insane ADP. I understand the general excitement after the 22-year-old delivered 13 HR/35 SB in just 98 games, but it came with just an 84 wRC+ as the league caught up to him quickly, holding him to a meager .192/.271/.353 line in his final 69 games (not nice). Sure, there’s a world where he makes a sharp adjustment and those dreaming on an extrapolation of those sexy HR/SB numbers strike it rich, but as a Top 25 pick, he almost has to do that to avoid being a big miss. I’d much rather just wait 60 or so picks for Oneil Cruz.

This one is in line with the De La Cruz situation where I understand the desire to invest in the upside, but at this price there is a substantial burden on CJ Abrams to perform and I’m just not sure we can bank on much beyond the SBs. Even during his summer surge when he swiped 38 SBs in 78 games, it came with just a .752 OPS. He hit 11 HRs in that time, too, and 18 in all so I don’t want to suggest he has an empty bat, but I just don’t think he has established the kind of floor I’d like for a Top 50 pick. Both Abrams and De La Cruz should steal enough to not be completely worthless if their bats lag, but I generally like at least some semblance of a plus bat in my Top 50 picks (Abrams 90 wRC+, EDLC 84).

I ranked Tyler Glasnow 12th in my SP rankings so I’m splitting some hairs here as I could see myself taking him somehwere in the 70s or later. I’m just incredibly nervous about making him my ace with a Top 40 pick given that last year’s 120 IP were a career-high. I also worry that his price will only rise if he looks good in Spring Training. I have to admit that I am more open to taking this kind of risk on pitching so this is a softer fade than EDLC and Abrams.

Is it lazy to just say “.401 BABIP!” and move on with Nolan Jones? Yes, yes it is. And it’s certainly not just the unsustainable BABIP that has me pushing away from Jones at his elevated price. He is a big strikeout guy which always gives me some pause with a player who is supposed to give me an AVG boost. In fairness, his Ks aren’t built off of flailing at the dish (his 12% SwStr isn’t much worse than the 11% league avg.), but moreso because he runs deep counts waiting for his pitch, happily taking a walk if it doesn’t come but also striking out a ton in the process. His 4.29 pitches per PA would’ve been 5th highest had he qualified, in company with other high-K guys like Kyle Schwarber, Max Muncy, Matt Olson, and teammate Ryan McMahon (Ha-Seong Kim is an interesting outlier as the only guy in that group with just a 20% K rate).

Perhaps the craziest part of Jones’s season was the road work: .935 OPS aided by a .434 BABIP. That’s wild for anyone, but especially bonkers for a Colorado Rockie. I worry that many are dreaming on what his 20/20 production from 106 games will look like for a full season in Coors. I see something like mid-to-high 20s in each category with .250s-type AVG which cuts a Randy Arozarena kind of figure but I’m not sure he can get to the 95 R/83 RBI that Arozarena had as the Rockies haven’t had a 90-R scorer since 2019. I can’t lie, I’m torn on Jones because I like him as a player, but push-come-to-shove I’m inclined to get a cheaper power-speed guy instead of paying a Top 60 pick for Jonesy given his lack of track record. It’s a No-Go for No-Jo in this dojo.

This is always one of my least favorite things in fantasy baseball: having to move off a one-time favorite when their price gets too high. Joe Ryan’s HR issue is growing as his ADP rises. His 1.8 HR9 was 4th-highest last year (min. 160 IP), resulting in a 4.51 ERA. Even his 1.2 mark from 2021-22 would slot 15th and I just worry that his strong K-BB rate won’t be able to counter the HRs and return a Top 100 value. Don’t get me wrong, Ryan does bring a great K rate and strong WHIP to the table but why not just take teammate Bailey Ober 60+ picks later? He has the same profile and just as much upside as far as I’m concerned.

It feels kind of mean to kick Oakland when they’re down, but my next two entries are among the limited bright spots on their team. I think “The Extrapolators” (the people who take a small sample and just extrapolate it out to 600 PA) are playing with fire in thinking Zack Gelof can approach a 30/30 season after his blistering debut (14 HR/SB in 300 PA). I lean way closer to the projections that have him more in the 20/20 range with a sub-.240 AVG and that might not even be a Top 150 hitter, let alone overall. Be careful.

If you’ve been following my work for a while, you know I’m just not a fan of the Rabbit player type aka the SB-only profile. Esteury Ruiz panned out as well as you could hope with an AL-best 67 SBs and landed as a Top 140 player according to the Auction Calculator, but I’m honestly more concerned about what he does to a team build than whether or not he will return enough “value” on his ADP. He is a 4-category negative that and I just don’t know that the SBs are worth it unless you really bolster the rest of your offense to take on Ruiz’s negatives. At that point, I’d rather just take Jorge Mateo at a post-500 ADP.

Y’all, do NOT send this to Justin Mason! It will irreparably damage our relationship, but I’m just not in on Cedric Mullins. Don’t get me wrong, he isn’t some kind of worthless scrub but there are just so many more OF I prefer in his general range. My biggest concern is that if he continues to be a league average-ish bat (99 wRC+), he could start to lose playing time given the seemingly unlimited number of options that Orioles are churning out of their system these days. Mullins is someone who needs volume to sustain his value, especially if he doesn’t turn the tide on his shrinking AVG and BABIP. Justin, if you’re reading this, don’t worry I’m pivoting to another one of your favorites over Mullins as I’d rather just take TJ Friedl at the same ADP.

How is the less proven Ced Mullins just a round cheaper? Jarren Duran is coming off a strong 120 wRC+ with 8 HR and 24 SB in 362 PA which clearly has many excited given his ADP, but I can’t do it. This is another one where I’m worried “The Extrapolators” are pushing the ADP up. I buy the speed, but I’m tepid on his pop and his poor plate skills put a heavy burden on his BABIP to drive the AVG (a .381 BABIP fueled the .295 AVG). Give me any of Chas McCormick, Riley Greene, Brandon Nimmo, James Outman, Lars Nootbaar, Daulton Varsho, Taylor Ward, and even Duran’s new teammate Tyler O’Neill over him at similar to cheaper price tags. They don’t all bring the speed he does, but it could be some pretty empty SBs if his BABIP isn’t strong.

This is admittedly less about being out on José Alvarado and more about loving Jeff Hoffman. The departure of Craig Kimbrel opens the door for more SVs, but Alvarado had just 10 last year and while he isn’t terribly expensive, he is going nearly 300 picks earlier than Hoffman. Hell, even Seranthony Domínguez could be in the mix for Philly SVs and he’s going nearly 500 picks after Alvarado! I don’t mind dipping into the Philly bullpen as they will likely spread their SVs out, I’m just not paying a Top 200 pick for any of their guys.

George Kirby is a Top 40 pick so we are dealing with small margins here to call him a breakout. He’s SP5 on my current rankings but will jump a spot to SP4 with the recent Gerrit Cole news. Kirby is in a tight SP8-10 window during early March drafts as you have to go to the decimals to separate the ADPs of Kirby, Pablo Lopez, and Tyler Glasnow. I’m obsessed with 80-grade command and can easily see a path toward more strikeouts as he further develops his arsenal entering his third MLB season. Even if his 23% K rate doesn’t jump, he’s one of the stronger bets for 200+ IP so he could still deliver a Top 20 K total.

Did you know that Baseball Reference lists one of Evan Phillips’s nicknames as High Leverage Honey Bun? That and that alone is why he’s on this list. OK fine, it’s not the only reason. Being the closer on one of the best teams in baseball coming off back-to-back elite seasons also drives my interest in Phillips. Some may be bothered by him only notching 24 SVs, but that didn’t stop him from being 5th best RP on the Auction Calcultor thanks to his tiny ratios (2.05 ERA, 0.83 WHIP). I have no idea why he’s the 11th closer off the board… I’m taking maybe five guys ahead of him (Diaz, Duran, Hader, Clase, Doval).