4/11/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Hunter Brown check-in
• Jackson Holliday called up

K% IMPROVERS

(K% stabilizes around 70 BF which some guys are hitting)

• Shane Bieber +24 pts to 44% 🙁
• Tanner Houck +16 to 38%
• Brady Singer +10 to 29%

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Daily SP Chart archive

I updated the wOBA rank to this year’s versus the pitcher’s handedness. Once the pitchers start to get 4-5 starts for everyone, I’ll add in their numbers. Even those are small samples, of course, but one absolute gem or dud isn’t carrying quite as much weight. Plus, I’m usually citing core skill changes in the blurbs.

Don’t panic over ugly ERAs. Yeah, they’re ugly to look at and frustrating, but I’m not going to panic if the core skills are in order. Luis Castillo has a 19% K-BB, right in line with his 20% the last two years. George Kirby’s is a bit further off the pace, down 4 ticks from last year at 16%, but his calling card control remains in order with just a 0.5 points higher walk rate at 3% flat. Hell, I don’t even worry about decimals on those rates so it was 3% to me last year, too. The difference between 2.5% and 3.0% is about 4 walks in the span of a full year, but I digress. I’m literally 0% worried about either Castillo or Kirby. But even if I was, it wouldn’t be actionable because there’s no world where we cut them. This was all just a slightly different way of telling y’all not to panic, which is the same thing I did yesterday, but after my chat today I figured it was worth reiterating… so don’t panic, it’s dangerous!

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Chat time!

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Daily SP Chart archive

The internet has done a lot to foster the fantasy baseball community, but those innovations came at the expanse of a scourge: the up-to-the-second standings. They really don’t do us a ton of good at any point in the season, but they can actively hurt fantasy managers early on. Well at least how we react to them can. Your team doesn’t really have clear needs yet, at least not ones that weren’t there coming out of the draft. The exception of course would be a major injury that undercuts you in a stat.

The first two guys just eclipsed 60 PA on April 8th meaning no one is really off to a legitimately slow start just yet. That doesn’t mean you can’t monitor their skills, but there hasn’t really been much that is actionable thus far, outside of injuries. You can obviously churn 2-3 of your late rounders, but if you’re getting rid of any of your foundation (~top 2/3rds of your roster), then you’re probably doing too much. Trust the guys you drafted for some real time before declaring them cuttable. Just be careful out there.

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Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

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4/8/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Shane Bieber out for the year
• Spencer Strider likely to follow
• Shallow: Tanner Houck, Logan Allen, Luis Gil, Seth Lugo, Max Meyer
• Deep: Spencer Turnbull, Cody Bradford (short-term), Graham Ashcraft, Alec Marsh
• Trevor Story out a while w/shoulder injury

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Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Read the rest of this entry »

4/5/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

2-START PITCHERS: WEEK 2

• Charlie Morton & Reynaldo López – NYM/at MIA
• Cole Irvin – at BOS/MIL
• Brayan Bello – BAL/LAA
• Javier Assad – at SD/at SEA
• Graham Ashcraft & Frankie Montas – MIL/at CWS
• Reese Olson – at PIT/MIN
• Tyler Anderson – TB/at BOS
• James Paxton – at MIN/SD
• Jakob Junis – at CIN/at BAL
• Louie Varland & Chris Paddack – LAD/at DET
• Adrian Houser – at ATL/KC
• Nestor Cortes – MIA/at CLE
• Alex Wood – at TEX/WAS
• Spencer Turnbull – at STL/PIT
• Mitch Keller – DET/at PHI
• Blake Snell – WAS/at TB
• Andrew Heaney – HOU x2
• Trevor Williams – at SF/at OAK

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment below with fantasy questions.

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Approximately 60 minutes of joyous analysis.

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Daily SP Chart archive

The chart includes their last season performance until we get some actual data for this year, their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from last year (and then I’ll add the last 30 days outlook next month), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them (notes will be more statistical-based once we get some sample to work with). Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but it’s basically a riskier stream for those spots.

These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto.

Read the rest of this entry »

4/4/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

• Join our Patreon for live video feeds of each show
• Watch the video feed replay on YouTube

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Eury Pérez getting TJ
• Josh Jung timetable: 8-10 wks
• Jeimer Candelario hurt w/elbow

FAST START HITTERS: IN-OR-OUT

• Carson Kelly (2-C lgs only) – 1%
• Alex Kirilloff – 5%
• Brice Turang – 25%

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