What a treat on Thursday night. It’s a short slate, so you can focus all your attention on Jared Jones for the early game and then end the night with Tyler Glasnow’s start against the Reds.
Paul Sporer: Welcome everyone, thanks for coming out!
1:03
Bob Pollard: Some regression is due, but how real is Ranger Suarez ROS?
1:05
Paul Sporer: I think it’s more “the best of what his profile can do” than “tangible changes suggesting he’s in line for a Cy Young-worthy season”. The key to just how good the season will be is that BB rate. If he holds some of these gains all year, he can make a soft regression and then actually wind up as a downballot candidate, but if it’s back to 8-9%, he’ll likely spend the 2nd half in his familiar Team Streamer role
1:05
Paul Sporer: BTW, I owe y’all the SP rankings still. Couldn’t get em 100% locked up before my trip last weekend so I’m reworking some guys (wait a day and things change, let alone 3-4) and will get ’em up this week. Sorry about that!
Paul Sporer: They aren’t too far apart at all in terms of talent. Woo has shown more swing-and-miss upside which gives him a slight edge in fantasy, but I’d probably just play the immediate schedules b/w those 2
Please pardon the Wednesday morning posting, I won’t name names but someone fell asleep.
“Hey Paul, you’re the only one who works on this piece, so if someone falling asleep prevented it from being posted, it can only be YOU.”
Oh… right. Well, I guess we’ll never get to the bottom of why it was posted late, but here it is nonetheless!
Deep board on Wednesday with all 11 of the 2-x guys being viable for 10-teamers but none being must starts in those shallower formats. Eager to see how Bradley and Gasser follow up their strong season debuts (MLB debut in the case of Gasser). I know Rogers gets the Tigers, but I just don’t trust him much anywhere at this point so even the 1-x reco is tepid. Let me know if you have questions on anyone else here in the post or later today in my chat!
The chart includes their 2024 stats (this changed over from last year’s stats on April 22nd), their opponent’s wOBA versus the pitcher’s handedness from this year so far (this is changed as of April 11th), my general start/sit recommendation for 10-team, 12-team, and 15-team (or more) leagues, and then a note about them. Obviously, there are league sizes beyond those three so it’s essentially a shallow, medium, deep. If a pitcher only has an “x” in 15-team, it doesn’t mean there’s no potential use in 10s and 12s, but that just means it is a riskier stream as the league gets shallower.
These are general recommendations, and your league situation will carry more weight whether you are protecting ratios or chasing counting numbers. This is for standard 5×5 roto leagues. The thresholds for H2H starts are generally lower, especially in points leagues so I thought there would be more value focusing on roto and then you can generally expand these recommendations a bit for points leagues.
As we were talking through FAAB on Sunday night, my friend Gregg astutely pointed out that Oakland’s Win potential for their SPs is a lot higher than it was at the start of season. They now flaunt the best closer in baseball to maintain any leads they do get and they’re slugging the ball around a decent bit to obtain said leads. Mason Miller simply has a negative FIP!!! That’s right, FIP goes into the negative. He snatches runs off the board when he comes out of the pen. It probably goes without saying, but yes, his -0.17 FIP is the best in baseball. That tends to happen when you strike out more than half your batters (55% K rate).
On the offensive side, Brent Rooker is showing that last year was no fluke with a 1.021 OPS and 10 HR, good for 3rd and t-4th, respectively. He’s not the only one hitting, though, as their 55 HRs rank 4th in the league aiding them to a palatable 102 wRC+. In addition to Rooker’s 187 wRC+, they are getting big contributions from Abraham Toro (137), JJ Bleday (122), Tyler Nevin (116), and Shea Langeliers (114) as well as small sample gods Kyle McCann (211 in 39 PA), Brett Harris (126 in 42), and Esteury Ruiz (112 in 58) making the most of their time so far.
Unfortunately one of the prime beneficiaries of this improved outlook for Oakland, Paul Blackburn, hit the IL today with a broken foot. However, it does bring Joey Estes back up which is a full circle moment because that’s who Gregg and I were discussing on Sunday when he pointed out Oakland’s newly improved outlook. Estes has a HR issue that will make him risky even in the best setups, but a shiny season debut on Saturday (5 IP/1 ER/0 BB/5 Ks) plus this opportunity does at least put him on the deep league radar. He gets a trip to Houston this week which I’d pass on, but if you’re a fan in a daily moves league you might consider stashing before that start because if he surprises me and does do well against the Astros, there’ll be a lot of attention for his Colorado start at home.
Some recent (last 3 weeks) strong runs you might’ve overlooked because of their season long ERA is obscuring the surge:
Bailey Ober: 3.33 ERA in L3 wks | 4.42 season ERA – This one is kinda cheating because it’s really just that 8 ER season opening dud that weighed his ERA down. He actually has a 2.55 ERA in the 6 starts since then. Next Start: at TOR this weekend and then at CLE next week… he’s a lineup staple for me, even in shallower formats.
George Kirby & Max Fried: 1.96 & 1.64 | 4.15 & 4.23 – A couple of fantasy aces who never left anyone’s lineups, but have now assuaged fears after their mega-dud outings early (8 ER for Kirby, 7 ER for Fried). Next Starts: GK gets v. KCR/at BAL next week; MF gets at NYM this weekend/v. SDP next week
Brandon Pfaadt: 3.33 | 6.48 – I fudged the numbers an extra day to loop Pfaadt’s April 17th start in and this run highlights why it was so hard to cut him even after the 11 ER in 2 starts. He’s a Team Streamer with a limited number of teams on the Sit List. Next Start: v. CIN, an easy start as their offense has severely lacked the punch we feared coming into the season (just 28th in wOBA vR this year).
Andrew Heaney: 3.38 | 4.50 – He just always scares me w/his HR woes — and he’s still toting a 1.3 HR9 this year — but he has averaged 6 IP over his L4 with solid results. The frustrating part is that his being on Texas would usually make him a decent bet to chase wins and yet he’s 0-4 on the season including 0-2 during this recent run! Next Start: v. LAA, I’m down to stream him.
Chris Flexen 플렉센: 1.61 | 4.29 – Chris has absolutely been Flexen the opponents! He’s been downright sneaky deece, mixing in an excellent 4-IP relief appearance to spur this run that now includes at least 5 IP in each of his last 3 starts with a combined 3 IP. The skills still don’t jump off the page with a 13% K-BB and of course the W probability is virtually non-existent, but if you’re not chasing wins, there a modicum of deep league appeal. Next Starts: v. WSN/at NYY… ehhh, I don’t think I can get there, so maybe less than a modicum of appeal.
Emerson Hancock: 3.20 | 5.24 – Ate an 8 ER dud at MIL in his 2nd start of the season but followed it up with 3 straight QS before one bad inning sank him in MIN. He was fortunate to allow just 1 ER (4 UER) v. ATL, though no one should’ve been starting him for that anyway, not even on the heels of those QS. Woo’s return will send him back to Triple-A so we can reassess his streamer potential when he returns. Next Start: in Triple-A
Alex Wood: 3.05 | 5.30 – I had some interest in Wood coming into the season even took him w/the last pick of a Main Event, but jumped off after the dud v. CLE in the opener because I thought the Guardians weren’t a good lineup. Turns out losing badly to them isn’t so bad and Wood might still be the decent-ish deep league streamer I thought he could be when I drafted him. There are still issues, though: his W probability is tiny, he’s averaging fewer than 5 IP per start (reaching that mark in just 4 of 8 starts), and even the recent run of solid starts come with a 9% K-BB. Next Start: at SEA this week followed by at HOU… maaaybe an AL-only run?
