Do you like laughing? Of course, we all do. Well, have I got something for you! Incorrect bold predictions always look hilariously stupid at season’s end, that’s just the nature of the beast. Given that they are at least somewhat far-fetched to begin with, ones that fail (most of them) often do so spectacularly. The RG crew has been reviewing their bold predictions all week so it’s time for me to take my victory lap medicine poop sandwich.

I tend to think that letter-of-the-law grading with Bold Predictions isn’t necessary as the purveyor of them is usually trying to get across a more general point as opposed to nail it exactly. For example, if someone said Kendrys Morales will be a top 10 first baseman as one of their BPs this year, I’d be inclined to give them a +1 for that even though he was 11th at the position per the ESPN Player Rater. That said, even leniency wouldn’t help me so we’re going with letter-of-the-law grading.

Let’s get to the carnage.

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Dividends from the Cole Hamels trade weren’t supposed to start paying off for either team until 2016. But then the Rangers stormed the West to clinch a playoff berth with a 3-game lead on the Astros for the division, though the Phillies haven’t really missed a beat production-wise as Jerad Eickhoff has essentially matched Hamels (yes, I realize that Alec Asher has been a negative for Philly while Jake Diekman has also been a boon for the Rangers tilting the balance back in their favor rather sharply, but this is about Eickhoff).

The read on Eickhoff both before the season and at the time of the trade was a #4 or #5 starter who could find success in a bullpen role if he didn’t quite pan out as a starter. Through eight starts in his big league career, he looks more like a solid mid-rotation option by the numbers, but has he shown enough to be considered such for 2016? Of course, all of the necessary small sample size caveats are in effect at the 51-inning mark, but he is showing improvements on his early season scouting report.

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Episode 283

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris have got six pitchers who failed to live up to their lofty draft status. The two discuss what went wrong for these pitchers and decide whether or not they will re-invest in 2016.

• Andrew Cashner
• Alex Wood
• Gio Gonzalez
• Yordano Ventura
• Jordan Zimmermann
• Corey Kluber

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Value is nebulous term in fantasy sports. In fact, some (namely colleague and friend Todd Zola of Fantasy Alarm) don’t even like the term anymore as it can be often misused. I believe Zola has some good points against using the word so often, but nevertheless we’ll push forward with it as it conveys the idea I’m going for today. Who delivered the most bang for their buck? For this particular piece, I’ll be looking at those who were drafted regularly.

Determining who was drafted “regularly” will come via the excellent FantasyPros data on average draft positions (ADP) across six different sites. I used a 350 ADP as the cutoff, that covers 10- and 12-team leagues easily (23-man roster plus reserves) and gets pretty deep into 15-team leagues. Here is the overall ranking and then you can click by each position. I’m looking at this by position and comparing a player’s draft slot at his position to where he stands now.

To qualify as the best value, they must be in the top 12 at their position per the FantasyPros Player Rater. It’s great that Adam Lind is 32 spots higher than his draft spot at 1B, but he’s still only 17th at the position. Mark Teixeira is similar in that he’s 26 spots better than his draft slot, but sits just 20th at the position (due in part to an injury shortening his season, obviously).

CATCHER

Stephen Vogt [OAK – Draft: 23rd at C, 315th Overall; 2015: 6th at C]

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Episode 282

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette meander along the baseball highway on this penultimate Sunday of the regular season. Jason brings up the second-half leaderboards and we hit some surprises scattered on each end of said leaderboards. It’s a pretty chill episode, small technical glitch in the middle, you’ll hear it.

If you have anything you’d like to hear us discuss next week, let us know in the comments. 

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Fantasy baseball has made great transformations thanks in large part to the internet. The mounds of excellent data that have made the game on the field have also improved this game we play off the field. We’ve learned better ways to analyze players and while we still can’t predict the future, we certainly have a better understanding of what is happening with players and why. One casualty of the increased information should’ve been the age-27 breakout theory, but unlike the poor animal that sacrificed its life to be Donald Trump’s hair, this theory won’t die.

It’s not that we don’t see anyone breakout at 27 years old. It’s that being 27 has virtually nothing to do with it. Derek Carty covered this is some detail several years ago at The Hardball Times. And yet it persists every spring with lists of upcoming 27-year olds primed for a breakout. I’m fine with lists of breakouts, those are fun to read. It’s the adherence to age-27 that bothers me. Or the fact that a lot of these lists include guys who have already broken out and thus a huge season at 27 wouldn’t be a surprise in the first place.

I found 11 players who were mentioned as age-27 breakouts on various lists and I’m not sure any of them really had breakouts this year. Some of them were great, but we already knew they were great (Goldschmidt). Some had big gains from last year, but it wasn’t really a breakout since they had been good in previous seasons (Kipnis). Some just flat out busted (Ramos). Here is the whole list:

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Episode 281

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris get you set up for the final week by discussing some potential stream options for power, speed, and pitching. Names includes Greg Bird, Franklin Gutierrez, Kevin Pillar, Rico Noel, Marcus Stroman, and Jake Peavy among many others. If you’re chasing a title, we can help you in the final week.

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I often rail against fantasy managers who blame their poor season on one player. It’s never just one player, even if it’s your first round pick. I especially get annoyed when these jokers blame guys who most certainly did not kill their season even if one player could make that big of an impact. Adam Jones hasn’t performed like the 15th-best player this year. In fact, he hasn’t even been the 15th-best outfielder, but there is no way that he is why you’re mired in ninth place.

Jones is falling short of his 2014 production in all five key fantasy categories, but we’re talking 14 runs and RBIs, two home runs, four stolen bases, and 12 points of batting average in 23 fewer games (13 of which he can make up if he plays every one of the remaining games for Baltimore). Those deficits aren’t meaningless, but they aren’t season-ending, either, especially since you can’t just expect a player to repeat his previous year’s line. That said, some guys do fall well short of expectations and play a big role in the collapse of a fantasy team.

Often these are injury-related situations where the player simply doesn’t play enough to return even his cost let alone add in a profit. We’re not interested in those guys today. Every team gets hit with some injuries and that’s just part of sports and by extension, fantasy sports. We’re looking for the guys who have played a lot while delivering well under expectations.

Today we’re looking at guys drafted in the top 100 this spring who have been the biggest disappointments to fantasy managers this season. The player must have at least 450 PA which means injury can still be a factor, but that’s enough playing time to outrun or at least offset an injury. Adam Wainwright lasted 25 innings. Corey Dickerson has played 54 games. They have been disappointments, but it’s entirely injury-related. These four guys have been there virtually all year and just haven’t performed well enough to justify their spring cost:

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Episode 280

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris continue their discussion of 25-and-Under players to target for 2016 by jumping into starting pitchers. Of course we couldn’t finish all of them so we’ll do more on Thursday, but we do get into plenty including Noah Syndergaard, Julio Teheran, Michael Wacha, Carlos Rodon, Lance McCullers, and Luis Severino among others.

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Episode 279

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

In this episode, Paul Sporer and Jason Collette discuss a group of hitters who have failed to live up to expectation. These aren’t just injury guys, either. Some have dealt with injuries, but all have a substantial amount of playing time and just haven’t done what you’d expect. Names include: Yasmani Grandal, Albert Pujols, Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria, and Carlos Gomez among others.

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