Can you believe we’re almost done with April? It seems like the season just started. I swear baseball weeks move 10x faster than winter weeks. Anyway, it’s time to check in on the National League starting pitchers. I didn’t do an official first run of tiers last month, instead letting my final rankings update serve as my baseline, but from here on out I will be updating monthly per usual.

The release of Drake’s fourth studio album today gave me an easy theme for the May tiers, though I obviously need more than four tiers so I’m including some mixtapes and collaborative albums to get us to eight. They’re just in order of how I like them so “Views” comes in last just because I’ve only listened to it three times so I don’t really have a feel for it yet. I think first impressions with albums are kind of worthless.

I can’t tell you how many times I hated something on first listen only to love it two weeks later after another 10 spins. With due respect, I don’t care what you think about Drake in this particular forum (btw, that probably reads as more aggressive than I’m intending… I’m just saying, it’s tangential to the piece so let’s not get too hung up on it). I know some people don’t like him. I don’t like some music that others love. That’s just how it works. Comedy and music are two subjective arts that I finally stopped telling people how they should feel about once I realized that not everyone had to like what I like.

Let’s get to the pitchers!

If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late

• Clayton Kershaw
• Jake Arrieta

Read the rest of this entry »

Same time next week at 2:00 PM Central!

Read the rest of this entry »

4/27/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

WE NEED YOUR HELP!

• PodcastAwards – please nominate us!!

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

I practice extreme patience in fantasy baseball because to me there’s nothing worse than overreacting on a guy, cutting him, and then watching him get back on track for one of your competitors. However, I also realize that sometimes the patience is exercised to a fault, especially in shallower leagues (10-13 team mixers where the waiver wire is going to be more plentiful). I’m trying to strike a better balance this year and be willing to take chances on available guys, even if it means cutting someone who might get back on track, but just isn’t performing right now.

Of course, to pick someone up, someone has to go. And that decision is often the more agonizing of the two so today I’ve got three arms drafted in the top 60 starters of NFBC leagues that I’m ready to move on from in favor of the latest hot prospect being called up or fast starters with some bankable skills changes behind their run. We’ve already seen Blake Snell, Henry Owens, Aaron Blair, and Jose Berrios get the call. And sure, they could flop and have you back on the wire picking one of these guys back up, but for now I’m comfortable cutting them to invest elsewhere in the hopes of a big payday.

Read the rest of this entry »

4/25/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Michael Brantley activated (5:05)
• Kevin Gausman activated (8:45)
• Carlos Carrasco out 4-6 weeks (18:50)
• Joaquin Benoit DL (34:20)
• Byron Buxton demoted (43:00)

Strategy Section: Three Fast Starts in the AL

• Ricky Nolasco (56:40)
• Hector Santiago (1:04:40)
• Rick Porcello (1:11:40)

Mailbag

• None today because of time, but back at it again Wednesday

—

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

4/24/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

• Carlos Carrasco hurt (2:30)

Four big SP call-ups

• Blake Snell (13:10)
• Aaron Blair (22:45)
• Henry Owens (29:30)
• Casey Kelly (34:05)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Before you know it, we’ll be turning the page on the first month of the season even though it feels like Opening Day just happened. The baseball season seems to move at about 300x the speed of winter so I feel like the All-Star break will be smacking me in the face way too soon. You’ve probably heard it a million times – even from me – that early season analysis is hard because of the scant sample sizes. Yeah, it is hard, but if it were easy then there probably wouldn’t be jobs for twerps like me so I’d best stop complaining and get to analysis’ing (some say analyzing, but I mean, it’s obviously analysis’ing, right?).

Let’s take a quick look at two arms on the rise and see if we’re buying them the rest of the way:

Vincent Velasquez – If you were inclined to get super-excited by his 16-strikeout masterpiece about the Padres, he promptly laid a bit of an egg five days late (though only two of the five runs were earned) and brought everyone back to earth. Though I don’t think a modest start erases what many believed after the gem: he’s good, really good. In fact, the only thing holding Velasquez back this year is an innings cap that he will face this year. Additionally, if you were ready to discount the big outing because of the Padres, consider that he drew 27 swings-and-misses – a rarity even in this strikeout area. Look at what this joker tweeted out:

Pitchers w/27+ swinging strikes in a gm since '14: Kershaw 35, Kershaw, Carrasco, Stras 30; Sale 29; Max 2x, Kluber, Hamels, & VV today w/27

— Paul Sporer (@sporer) April 14, 2016

Read the rest of this entry »

See the transcript below:

Read the rest of this entry »

4/20/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer
• @doug_thorburn
• @enosarris
• @jasoncollette

General Questions:

• What are you looking for in the early season? (6:55)
• We see a lot of comps for velo to their 2015 mark, should we be comparing April-to-April or does it not matter? (10:24)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

The early season is the trickiest part of the year for fantasy players. How much do you react to any given start for a pitcher? Is Vincent Velasquez really awesome? Is Adam Wainwright all of a sudden trash? While we can’t know definitively on any of it this early, we can start looking for signs that will help us make our decisions going forward. Today, we’re going to look at two really intriguing arms off to solid starts and see how they’re attacking their biggest flaw: walks.

Matt Moore

Moore entered 2016 with an 11% career walk rate, just too many walks to find consistent success. As is often the case when someone is struggling with walks, it is fastball command for Moore. He has never had lower than a 10% walk rate with the pitch. So when I see the 4% walk rate for Moore through three starts, it instantly jumps off the page for me. Once you see a stark difference in a skill like that, you want to investigate it further and not just accept it at face value.

Read the rest of this entry »