Author Archive

Tipping Pitches: Max Scherzer’s Home Runs

We’ve seen a paradigm shift in fantasy baseball the last couple of years as starting pitchers are being trusted more and more as early round, bankable assets. There has been a sharp change in offensive environment across the league as the “PED era” has given way to “Strikeout era” and fantasy managers don’t want to get caught without a premium ace or two, similar to how you needed at least a couple 30+ HR bats in the early-2000s to have any chance in the offensive categories.

This year is the most confident I’ve ever seen the market be in starting pitching as the top 20 were all drafted within the top 70 picks overall. Another six after that still made the top 100. Taking it a step further, 18 of those 20 were top 50 picks compared to just 10 pitchers elected as such in 2015. We are now a month and a half into the season and a whopping 60% of the top 20 starters are underwhelming against expectations. Some are lagging in a category and feel just a click off from dominating. Others are just flat out bad. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll be investigating what’s going on with those in the top 20 who are underperforming. Today, let’s look at of the biggest laggards compared to expectations: Max Scherzer.

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 5/12/16

Here’s the transcript from my latest chat:
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Affordable Buy-High Candidates

Around this time of year when trade season starts open up in earnest, you consistently hear one maxim: buy-low, sell-high. It’s the tried-and-true method of trading and is ideal for what I hope are obvious reasons. However, it’s a lot easier said than done, particularly in the internet age of fantasy baseball. The statistical revolution and internet have colluded to equip all fantasy managers with any amount of data they desire about their players. You will still see lopsided deals, but outside of blatant cases of collusion, a deal that you deem as lopsided is still just a difference in player valuation.

The market inefficiency is in buying-high (I would be much more cautious with the inverse, but there could also be a market to exploit by selling low). Given how often fantasy managers are looking to sell high, there is a larger pool players to choose from and of course there is also more willingness to move them which adds to the likelihood of a deal getting done instead trying to pry someone your leaguemate wasn’t looking to sell in the first place. Buying high is easier, but it can be tricky (You don’t want to get smoked, but we’re talking buying-high, not buying-highest. you should never buy-highest… in any sense of the word). However, some players are seen as sell-high candidates while having a good shot at maintaining a high level of production and their price won’t always be commensurate with said production making them the ideal buy-high candidates.

Here are five such candidates:

John Jaso: The hang up with Jaso is that he only has first base eligibility and the power-hitting focus at the position leaves Jaso coming up short. His career high of 10 HRs came back in 2012. While he does lack the power to carry first base, he is an interesting corner infielder or utility as a high batting average hitter atop a proficient lineup. Plus, let’s not completely sleep on the fact that he has hit three homers, putting him on pace to crush his previous high.

He’s pacing for 14 more while the projections see 6-10 more (6 for ZiPS, 10 for Steamer & Depth Charts). Above all else, he needs to stay healthy, something that has been a career-long challenge as he’s never cleared 110 games played. If the perfect world scenario plays out and he maintains this pace, he’ll be this year’s Logan Forsythe. I’d settle for this year’s Mark Canha.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 343 – The Kang Show

5/11/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

Strategy Section: Player Grab Bag

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 342 – Buying Low

5/10/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 341 – Tyler White & Trevor Story Updates

5/9/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Strategy Section:

Mailbag

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Paul Sporer Rotographs Chat – 5/5/2016

Thanks for coming out! Back at it next week.

1:44
Paul Sporer:

1:44
Paul Sporer: Let’s roll!!

1:47
einstein2u: thoughts on jesse hahn? was that gun running hot?

1:48
Paul Sporer: Readings seem to check out. I’d like to see more Ks, but talent is there

1:48
bob: Thoughts on Hearn 1b royals?

1:48
Paul Sporer: Who’s that?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 340 – Aledmys to Introduce Myself

5/4/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Tipping Pitches: Chris Tillman Surging

It’s understandable if you came into the season with Chris Tillman buried on your starting pitcher list. After back-to-back intriguing seasons in 2013-14, he ran all the back toward and even beyond his ominous FIP numbers with a 4.99 ERA in 173 innings. In those two solid seasons, he posted a 3.52 ERA, but was all the way up at a 4.22 FIP. An already-tenuous skillset sank further, yielding a 1.9 K:BB ratio and took Tillman off the radar in just about every league type.

On Tuesday night he dropped seven strong on the Yankees, shrinking his ERA to 2.81 and tying a career-high with nine strikeouts (7th ever, 2nd this year). This time around, there’s actually support for his numbers. He has a 2.64 FIP thanks in large part to a 26% strikeout rate and just 24 hits allowed in 32 innings. His 9% walk rate is a little high, but workable with those strikeout and hit rates for sure. His 11% swinging strike rate is far and away a career-high and supports the surge in punchouts.

What’s Tillman doing to draw such strong results? Let’s take a look at the three main areas that I (and most, I think) often look to first when a pitcher is showing a big change in performance, for better or worse.

VELOCITY

I’m fairly certain that velocity is the first check for everybody when seeing what’s up with a pitcher. Brooks has Tillman up over a full tick at 93.8 MPH – a career-best and his first time north of 93 on average since 2012. The cutter is the only other pitch where more velocity would help and while he is up, it’s negligible at just 0.6 MPH. The 87.4 MPH mark is second-best in his career behind the 87.5 he logged in 2013. His velocity increase is a tangible, positive change, but it alone certainly doesn’t explain this jump in performance.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 339 – HURT Rankings

5/2/16

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live!

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Notable Transactions/Rumors/Articles/Game Play

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Closer Updates

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