In a shocking free agent move, the Chicago White Sox have signed Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year, $73 million-dollar deal. Several teams were said to be in on Grandal as he was not only the best catcher available this offseason, but also one of the very best catchers in all of baseball. After showing some flashes with San Diego, Grandal broke out with the Dodgers and wound up with a healthy 116 wRC+ over his four seasons in LA.

Read the rest of this entry »

11/21/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Chris Martin re-signs in ATL (2:40)
• Jose De Leon traded to CIN (7:25)
• Greg Bird, Jharel Cotton, Matt Duffy, Wei-Yin Chen DFA’d (11:11)

PITCHERLIST MOCK REVIEW

• Justin’s Top 11 (29:27)

BREAKING NEWS!

• Yasmani Grandal signs with CWS (44:16)

—

As usual, don’t hesitate to tweet us or comment with fantasy questions.

You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think!

Approximately 56 minutes of joyous analysis.

Everyone likes finding the next big thing in fantasy baseball and cashing in, but sometimes the best pickup is buying back in on a player coming off a down season in hopes of a return to previously established levels of production or reach new heights hinted at by their prospect status and minor league production. Here is a group of players I’m buying late:

1B: Luke Voit | 17th at position, 169th pick

Voit only played 47 games in 2018, but he posted a nice 1.069 OPS with 15 HR and 36 RBI across 161 PA. His move to New York seemed to spur a breakthrough that many were hoping he could build upon in 2019. A sports hernia made that tough, though, costing him time in both July and August and likely playing a role in his .673 OPS during September. Before the injury it was looking like he was going to turn his 2018 into a full-scale breakout as he hit .280/.393/.509 with 17 HR through June (78 games). Overall, he still posted a solid 126 wRC+. Assuming he recovers in the offseason, he should get back on track in 2020 and I could see a .270 AVG, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 R.

Read the rest of this entry »

11/19/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host

NOTES ON TOP 50s

• Brandon Woodruff: excellent fastball, trusted as a workhorse before injury, 3.35 career FIP
• Max Fried: added slider, improved velo and control, GB lean
• Zac Gallen: 4-pitch mix, big swing-and-miss, career-long HR suppression
• Frankie Montas: premium velo, paired 2015-17 K% w/2018 BB%, new splitter, HR suppression
• Jesus Luzardo: elite prospect w/great K upside, strong 3-pitch mix, could face IP limitation

THE NEXT BIG PITCHER

• Joe Musgrove (5:00)
• Dylan Cease (6:25)
• Michael Kopech (12:24)
• Jose Urquidy (16:30)
• Griffin Canning (20:28)
• Sandy Alcantara (23:12)

Read the rest of this entry »

This Astros article will not talk about sign stealing. You’re welcome.

Continuing the series I started last week, let’s take a closer look at the World Series runner up!

OTHER TEAMS:

• Pittsburgh Pirates
• Seattle Mariners

3 QUESTIONS

Can Justin Verlander continue to hold up at age-37?

While Verlander has gone as one of the top starters throughout the early 2020 drafts, there is always a tinge of trepidation because of his age. But should we be worried? It’s hard to say yes. I understand that anyone age-35 or older carries a bit more injury risk, but outside of his age there is nothing in Verlander’s profile that should cause panic. Not even the homers. I mean his 1.5 HR/9 mark was high, but he allowed so few base runners that it didn’t really matter. His ERA went up 0.06 from 2018.

Arguably the biggest effect of the 2019 ball was the number of opposite field home runs that carried out and no one was affect more than Verlander. His 9 oppo tacos tied him for the league lead with Shane Bieber, Noah Syndergaard, Yusei Kikuchi, and his teammate Wade Miley. Even with those homers, his .360 wOBA to the opposite field was still easily the lowest of that group (Bieber was second at .379). The rest of his profile was elite. Don’t sweat the age, draft the reigning Cy Young winner.

Read the rest of this entry »

…going 15th or later at their position (30th for OF, 40th for SP, and 20th for RP).

It felt like that’d all be too long for a headline. Anyway, this is a very straightforward concept that I thought of while on my way to getting breakfast tacos! I’m using the Too Early Mocks as my guide here so let’s go position-by-position and find some potential Top 5s!

STARTING PITCHER: Frankie Montas (48th)

I’ve already expressed some love for Montas this offseason so why not go to the next level here? His trajectory has really impressed me. He started as a flamethrower who could miss bats but do little else. Then in 2018 he stopped walking guys, but his Ks tanked… which of course seemed related. This year he put it all together with a 26% K rate, 6% BB rate, and he maintained his excellent HR suppression (0.75 HR/9). His season was cut short by a PED suspension, but he finished on the mound with an excellent six-inning outing on September 25th. Sign me up!

Read the rest of this entry »

11/13/19

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Gabe Kapler to SF (5:25)
• Cincy interested in Marcell Ozuna (12:33)
• Gerrit Cole unlikely to sign before 2020 [report] (16:16)
• SD out on Stephen Strasburg? [report] (18:50)

Read the rest of this entry »

I started this new series yesterday and you can bookmark this page to follow along going forward. I’ll put that link in every intro for sure, but I could also list every team that has been covered so far in every intro if you’d like. Please let me know in the comments.

Today we head out to the Pacific Northwest to discuss the Mariners. They are a bit stuck right now with a roster that isn’t really set up to tear down nor is it good enough to truly compete. Their farm system is on the rise, but their best prospects are years away. Of course, GM Jerry Dipoto loves to trade and could flip this entire roster by Christmas. We’ll see how it goes.

3 QUESTIONS

Is Dee Gordon done as a 50-SB threat?

A bruised wrist and strained quad limited Gordon to just 117 games and resulted in his third sub-.700s OPS and underwhelming SB output season in the last four. We can excuse his 30 in 2016 as he played just 79 games and then he led baseball with 60 in 2017 but then just 30 and 22 the last two seasons. Those two seasons don’t even pace that well (31 per 600 PA) when you consider barren numbers that come with the steals (.271 AVG, 4 HR, 41 RBI, and 58 R per 600 PA).

Gordon’s 6.6 speed score was easily a career-worst and his StatCast sprint speed has dipped each of the last three years. He also has a .305 OBP or worse in three of the last four years, including a combined .295 the last two years. Teammate Mallex Smith swiped an MLB-best 46 bases with a .300 OBP so it’s possible to rack up a giant total with a terrible OBP, but Smith is also five years younger and faster. As Gordon enters his age-32 season, it’s hard to project him for more than 30 SB and part of me wonders how much Seattle wants two OBP drains who only offer speed in the lineup on a daily basis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to a new offseason series where I’ll be taking a closer look at all 30 teams via six different categories, all of which should be self-explanatory in terms of what they’ll cover: 3 Questions, Riser, Faller, A Move to Make (Signing or Trade), Playing Time Battle, and Prospect Contributors for 2020 (1 hitter/1 pitcher). I took all 30 teams and randomized the order since I couldn’t decide on an order myself. The Pirates are leading off!

3 QUESTIONS

What does Josh Bell do for an encore?

Only a groin injury could slow Bell’s massive power breakout. He put together a .946 OPS through five months before limping to the finish line with just 11 games and an .803 OPS. While his 2019 was a massive surge from 2018, it wasn’t the first time he showed capable power (.211 ISO in ’17) and he’s always had a strong plate approach (career 19% K, 12% BB) so I don’t see a major falloff even if the ball changes. I see 27-32 HR, a .275 AVG, and 90+ R/RBI.

Can Gregory Polanco finally stay healthy and breakthrough?

Polanco’s 2018 might already be his breakout (23 HR, 12 SB, 123 wRC+ in 535 PA), but even that season was shortened to 130 games, so his proponents are still holding out hope for a season like that or better in 150 games. Six IL stints over the last three seasons and a major shoulder issue this past season make it hard to see a particularly bright future here. He’ll be priced to buy in 2020, but a 20/10 ceiling feels right.

Is Chris Archer done as a viable fantasy starter?

Things came to a head for Archer last year as his walk and home run rates spiked resulting in a hideous 5.19 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 119.7 innings. The second half of his season wasn’t quite as bad with a 4.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 31% K offers some hope, especially the strikeouts, but if 4.42/1.29 is what we’re looking forward to, then yeah he kinda is done as a viable option in 10- and 12-team leagues. 15-teamers might find some streaming value. I will be eager to see what a new pitching coach in Pittsburgh can do for Archer and a with price at pick-250 or later, he might be a decent late round gamble.

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m putting a little star next to these 8 arms who went 300 or later in the Too Early Mocks.

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN | Pick 301

Amped his velo to 94.7 mph and generated a career-best 24% K rate that helped him outrun a hideous 1.6 HR/9 and still post a respectable 3.89 ERA. Home runs have always been part of his profile even with a juiced ball so it’s unlikely that he magically posts a league average or better rate but imagine if he can just cut it to 1.2-1.3 in 2020. A mid-3.00s ERA could be in play.

Aaron Civale, CLE | Pick 309

I don’t want to get too annoying mentioning him as I did discuss him in this piece back in September, but I’ll give him another plug here. Not only do I think Civale himself is solid with a useful 5-pitch arsenal, but I’m also putting faith in Cleveland’s ability to develop arms. Not as good as Shane Bieber, better than Adam Plutko/Josh Tomlin.

Read the rest of this entry »