Author Archive

The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1377 – 3B Preview Pt. 1

2/20/25

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

THIRD BASE PREVIEW PT. 3:

Tier 1

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – February 20th, 2025

Transcript is now live!

1:02

Paul Sporer: Thanks so much for coming to the chat! This Thursday time is just a one-off to coincide with my Prospect Week contributions.

Check out my Re-Draft Prospect article: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/fantasy-update-2025-re-draft-and-dynasty… and Top 150 Dynasty Prospect rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2025-fantasy-rankings?so… — and feel free to ask any questions about it here today. We got run a tight 50-55 minutes bc I have back-to-back podcasts lined up today, including my prospect deep-dive with Eric Longenhagen!!

1:02

Austin: Hey, Paul. I have two keeper spots remaining for a number of players. Who would you pick of Michael Toglia, Robbie Ray, Brayan Bello, Lars Nootbaar, Heston Kjerstad, Noelvi Marte and Heston Kjerstad? Lot of options in a 16-keeper league.

Thanks!

1:06

Paul Sporer: Ooh interesting group. I do love Kjerstad, but he’s still on the outside looking in and I’m not sure where he breaks into the lineup without an injury. I’m leaning toward Nootbaar and Toglia here with Marte & Ray getting heavy consideration right behind them. Tough choices to be sure, but that’s where I land

1:06

Cory: Hey Paul, 14 team H2H keeper league.  40 player rosters with 10 player minors.  Keep 26.  I left myself with Turang as my SS last year and now I’m stuck.  Been offered Bogaerts for my Arozarena.    Thoughts?   Should I squeeze for a little more?

1:08

Paul Sporer: I really have no problem with it as a 1-for-1, but if you can squeeze an extra little nugget, that’d obviously be great, too. Don’t push too hard that they take it off the table, though bc it’s solid straight up to address your SS depth

1:08

Guest: When will the Athletics finally bench Seth Brown, and who will fill his spot in LF?

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Fantasy Update: 2025 Re-Draft and Dynasty Prospects to Know

Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Prospects have become increasingly important to winning re-draft fantasy leagues. Of course, they have always been major in-season acquisitions, but now they’re making their presence felt at the draft table, too. With more fantasy managers aware of the prospects who are likely to have an impact in a given season, the battle for their services has become much more fevered, leading some managers to stash desirable prospects for a month or two rather than try to pluck them off the wire once they are called up and risk missing out.

These guys aren’t draftable in every format, but I cast a wide net so that the list has utility across many formats and can be revisited when those players who don’t break camp on a big league roster are called up. All of them should be in the majors for a substantial portion of the 2025 season. It is worth familiarizing yourself with them so that you’re ready to bid on the ones who aren’t draftable in your particular league.

These rankings are now available on the 2025 Fantasy Rankings tab of The Board, where you can also see the Top 150 Dynasty Rankings! Read the rest of this entry »


The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1376 – SS Preview Pt. 3

2/17/25

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SHORTSTOP PREVIEW PT. 3:

Tier 6

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1374 – SS Preview Pt. 2

2/14/25

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SHORTSTOP PREVIEW PT. 2:

Tier 4

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1373 – SS Preview Pt. 1

2/12/25

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PATREON

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SHORTSTOP PREVIEW PT. 1:

Tier 1

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Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat

 

Pitchers and catchers have reported which means my chats are back! (Actually planned to come back last week, but I was still under the weather)

Thanks for coming out, the transcript is now available!

1:03

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone!! Baseball is baaaaaack!!!!

1:03

Mochi: Glad you’re not sick anymore, thought you quit doing chats but also remembered you’re a generational yapper and you’d never quit these things.

Should I be concerned with all the projection systems being much lower on Lux this year than I am?  Is it just a case of them not being prone to personal bias/excitement?  I feel like we should have gotten a nice boost on his numbers with GABP being involved.

1:04

Paul Sporer: Thank you, I’d never quit chats, I love ’em!! I just take some time from them in the winter before diving back in. As for Lux, yeah I think it’s just that doesn’t have a lot of goodness to go off of right now so the projections aren’t going to pop. He really started trusting his knee late last season and we saw improvements. I think a fully healthy Lux can be a great piece for Cincy, I’m fully in to re-buy this year after last yr’s disappointment

1:05

K2: Sean Manaea – what are you thinking for him over these next couple of years? Seems like maybe he benefitted from a low BABIP last year that shouldn’t be counted on? Or should it?

1:08

Paul Sporer: Yeah he was very much in a groove last yr w/the new slingy delivery and I hope he can recapture that magic again this year. His price point in late-100s gives some buffer if he doesn’t fully repeat last yr’s numbers so I don’t mind him at ADP

1:08

Mets Fans: What do you think the CF will be for the opening day of the New York Mets, Jose Siri or Luisangel Acuña? or which other one do you think might be your favorite CF?

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Gold Digging: Building a Team After Pick-300 Pt. 3

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

One day this flu will fully go away. One day. At least I’m no longer sleeping 20 of 24 hours every day and can actually do things, but my goodness this cough is something else. Anyway, let’s finish off our Gold Digging team by heading to the mound with five notable starting pitchers I’m drafting and monitoring this spring in hopes of seeing the signs that they are ready for a breakthrough. If you missed either part on hitters, you can check those out here:

DJ Herz | WAS – 316 ADP

Herz impressed in a 19-start debut, highlighted by a fantastic 28% K rate in 89 innings. He had some classic rookie issues with a 9% BB rate and 1.1 HR9, but the walk rate was actually the best we’ve seen from Herz at any stop in his career (15% BB in 321 MiLB IP). He has a legit 3-pitch mix, all of which can miss bats, and the young lefty was so adept at handling righties that he actually posted a better OPS against them (.651, 43 pts clear of his work vL). He will need to iron out some of his volatility to have a major breakout, but I’ll take the shot at this price point.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1372 – 2B Preview Pt. 3

2/7/25

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PATREON

INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

SECOND BASE PREVIEW PT. 3:

Tier 6

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Gold Digging: Building a Team After Pick-300 Pt. 2

Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

Pardon my delay in getting Part 2 of this article out, but I became extremely sick on Tuesday night and it completely cooked the rest of my week. I’m still not at 100% but at least I’ve been able to get out of bed and do some things before crashing back out for another few hours. My body couldn’t get sick in November-December?! January-February is quite literally the worst time for me to be out of commission for days at a time! At any rate, let’s dive back into our hitters and finish up the lineup. Just to refresh if you forgot from Part 1 or didn’t read Part 1, we’re picking our favorite hitters after pick-300. Next week, we’ll do pitchers.

Shortstop

Jacob Wilson윌슨 | OAK – 347 ADP

The #6 overall pick from 2023 debuted right out of the All-Star break and even got a hit in first MLB plate appearance only to suffer a hamstring strain in the 4th inning of that game and ended up missing a month-plus on the IL. Upon returning, he didn’t really stand out with just a .615 OPS, 0 HR/SB in 102 PA. The one positive takeaway was his plate approach: 10% K, 8% BB. Over the course of a full season, I like him for way better than the .250 AVG we saw in his debut. The projections agree, ranging from .269 to .287, so that will be the draw of Wilson as neither the power nor the speed are particularly special.

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