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8/21/24

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BAD 2H HITTERS

• Patrick Bailey -17 wRC+ (lol)
• Luis Robert Jr. 34
• Will Smith 35

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I just don’t know what to expect from Crochet innings-wise, so he’s no longer a must-start.

Only 8 full scale recos before things start getting dicey because of matchup or performance and sometimes both.

Look, I’m on the Tobias Myers Train. I’m not entirely sure how it’s working this well and I don’t think it will continue at this pace but I’ll trade some ratio regression for win opportunity w/MIL.

I know TOR popped off tonight, but I’m still feeling pretty good about Martinez.

Gotta see one from Verlander before slotting him in.

I had zero clue Cueto was still playing… it’s awesome that he’s back!

Still plenty of risk with Montgomery, especially with MIA hitting better of late.

Wednesday morning update: Skenes is starting tomorrow and German is going today… I’m not re-running the full board, so I just made the janky-looking update of slotting German in Skenes’ spot and removing all the x’s since I wouldn’t start him anywhere.

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Let me know if you have questions about anyone in the comments below!

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I posted the 2-start board separately on Sunday evening.
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I had some extra time this Sunday evening so I got the 2-start board done early!

Kikuchi has 24 Ks in 3 strong starts w/HOU (2.70 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 16.7 IP) and this’ll be a huge test for talented lefty, but I’m running him everywhere.

Lack of offensive support for Woo is why he’s just 2-0 in his L5 despite a blistering 1.48 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 30.3 IP; even if I’m Ws chasing, I’d still start him.

Bradley suffering a fatigue-induced wear down or just 3 off-kilter starts (9.64 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 13% K-BB in 14 IP)? Can’t say for sure, but I’m gonna run the 2-start and then reassess.

While Houck only allowed 3 ER in his last 2 starts v. HOU and TEX, he still had just 4 Ks and 5 BB in the 12.7 IP of work. With the previous 3 duds, he’s at 4.85 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, and 1% K-BB in 29.7 IP over his L5. I realize he’s been excellent on the whole this year, but this is a brutal slate at HOU and v. ARI so I think there are some sits to be found out there. The sweeper ain’t sweepin’! Meanwhile the sinker and splitter have come in and out, too, leaving him nothing to rely on right now. He does setup

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8/16/24

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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2-START FOR WEEK 21

• Brandon Pfaadt at MIA/at BOS
• Reynaldo López PHI/WSN
• Dean Kremer at NYM/HOU
• Zach Eflin at NYM/HOU
• Tanner Houck at HOU/ARI – check-in
• Carson Spiers at TOR/at PIT

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I want to make sure it’s known that Arrighetti isn’t just up there because he’s facing the White Sox, he has been absolutely cooking lately: 3.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 26% K-BB in his L6 (36 IP) including 25 Ks in his last two starts. He has still allowed 5 HRs during this run (1.3 HR9) so the longball lingers as a potential problem, but as long as they are solos (4 of the 5 have been) he can survive.

I’m still loving what Schwelly is doing, too. He went into Coors and dropped a 6 IP/2 ER/7 K gem that deserved a win before Luke Jackson and Joe Jiménez decided to allow 7 runs in the 8th inning. Schwellenbach’s been even better than Arrighetti of late with a 2.54 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 28% K-BB in his L6 (39 IP). I’ll take either Spencer right now, though. They are both in the rotation regardless of matchup right now in virtually every format.

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Be veryyy careful with that 1-x group, 3 of ’em are facing really tough matchups and Maeda… well, look at his numbers. There’s some sketchiness in the 2-x group, too. I just want to avoid the 7+ ER meltdowns this late in the season and of course it’s impossible to predict them, but they are so punishing at this juncture. That said, we also can’t play scared (unless you’re protecting big ratio leads and just trying to successfully land a huge lead, but that’s rare), so trust your picks and don’t overthink the duds too much.
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8/14/24

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JUSTIN GRILLS PAUL’S SP RANKINGS

Paul’s new rankings

• Blake Snell
• Hunter Greene
• Michael King
• Max Fried

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