Playing time rules the day in fantasy baseball. The more of it your players have, the better you will do. It should go without saying that you want quality players logging that playing time, but in case anyone was unclear, I obviously believe that to be the case. It can be difficult to take a platoon player (under 130 gms) – even a good one – over someone playing at a slightly lesser clip but doing so 85%+ (~140+ gms) of the time.

Brett Gardner isn’t as good as Jesse Winker on a per plate appearance basis (103 to 125 in wRC+ since 2018), but he has 416 more PA giving him massive counting category edges. Finding the guys who can increase their playing time load in season is often a key separator in the winners and the losers. Here are five players who could fantasy stars if they find regular reps.

Yesterday I ran what ended up inadvertently being an NL edition of this so I didn’t want to leave the AL-Only folks hanging. I’m giving a couple extras because so many of the AL candidates are outfielders and I didn’t want to leave the infield empty handed.

Victor Reyes | DET | OF

Reyes fans had to be bummed by the Robbie Grossman and Nomar Mazara signings for the Tigers as they seem to have pushed Reyes to the bench with JaCoby Jones fulfilling the other role. The speedy 4th OF has been an avenue for cheap fantasy upside in the past and Reyes could absolutely be a draft day bargain because of his uncertain role. The switch-hitting 26-year-old has a career .271 AVG in 724 PA and that’s a bit depressed by his .222 AVG debut after being a Rule 5 pickup in 2018. Since then he is hitting .293/.327/.414 with 7 HR and 17 SB in 505 PA.

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3/11/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Forrest Whitley having TJ
• Spring Standouts:
  • Joey Gallo 5 HR
  • Willi Castro 3 HR
  • Ryan O’Hearn 3 HR
  • Ty France 3 HR; .615 AVG
  • Gregory Polanco 2 HR, 1 SB, 1.545 OPS
  • Victor Robles 3 SB
  • Sam Hilliard 3 SB

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Playing time rules the day in fantasy baseball. The more of it your players have, the better you will do. It should go without saying that you want quality players logging that playing time, but in case anyone was unclear, I obviously believe that to be the case. It can be difficult to take a platoon player (under 130 gms) – even a good one – over someone playing at a slightly lesser clip but doing so 85%+ (~140+ gms) of the time.

Brett Gardner isn’t as good as Jesse Winker on a per plate appearance basis (103 to 125 in wRC+ since 2018), but he has 416 more PA giving him massive counting category edges. Finding the guys who can increase their playing time load in season is often a key separator in the winners and the losers. Here are five players who could fantasy stars if they find regular reps.

Edwin Ríos | LAD | 4C (1B-3B-LF-RF)

Rios would start and bat in the top half of the lineup for at least half the league right now. While he is hardly a standout defender, his flexibility would help so many clubs fit his strong bat somewhere. Unfortunately, the Dodgers are definitely not one of those teams. All four positions he can play are blocked off by All Stars, but that same flexibility paired with the overall flexibility of this entire roster will give him a chance to be LA’s first man up should virtually any injury occur. The pieces can move to make Rios the man to cover any injury except catcher.

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3/9/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Razzslam update (0:00)
• Non-Contact leaders tweet (8:24)
  • Bobby Dalbec
    • Michael Chavis could start in MiLB
  • Luis Robert/ Adalberto Mondesi (17:47)
  • Keston Hiura (19:52)

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Closers are a mess this year. Sure, that was probably last year’s intro (well, I didn’t do this article, but I definitely commented about how 2020’s pool was a mess, too) and 2019’s and perhaps even 2018’s as managers have become smarter with reliever usage meaning they will use their best guys in the highest leverage situations more often as opposed to just saving them for the ninth. This presents an interesting conundrum wherein I appreciate the usage on a baseball level because it is absolutely the right way to manage a bullpen, but I hate it from a fantasy perspective because it adds more uncertainty to an already volatile part of our game.

The Tampa Bay Rays are obviously the gold standard here. Is “gold standard” the right phrase for this? Do you want to be the gold standard for pissing off fantasy managers? Let’s be honest, they don’t care and they definitely shouldn’t, they are just trying to get wins. Anyway, the Rays have set the bar here and other teams are following suit because frankly it works. I don’t subscribe to the idea that literally anyone can close, but I also realize that many more relievers are cut out for it than the consensus believed 5+ years ago when many more teams had a locked in 9th-inning guy.

Nick Anderson has a case as the very best reliever in baseball and yet he notched just six saves in 2020 with Diego Castillo getting four and 10 other relievers getting 1-2. In 11 of his 19 appearances, the Rays deployed Anderson in the 7th or 8th inning with the remaining eight being in the 9th or later (didn’t pitch until the 10th in one game and actually took the loss). No other team is as extreme as Tampa Bay, but there are a few assumed closers heading into 2021 who could get the Anderson treatment and their ranking will reflect that.

Jump to any Tier:

• Tier 1
• Tier 2
• Tier 3
• Tier 4
• Tier 5
• Tier 6

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Last week I did a podcast where I went thrift shopping with The BAT X to find some bargain players with strong projections, but this isn’t that. Maybe I could’ve come up with a different name to avoid the potential confusion, though this intro should suffice. What we are doing here today is checking out some prospects who have seen their prices plummet.

Oftentimes prospects are super hyped before they even step foot on a major league field as we can dream on them and wishcast them to be the next huge breakout from day 1. That love is fleeting, though, and when a prospect struggles upon arrival the fantasy community has been known to turn their back on them swiftly and severely. It’s on to the next one for so many which creates a buying opportunity if you still believe and you usually should as these prospects are rarely given a real sample of work before sinking down draft boards.

All five of these one-time mega prospects are going pick 250 or later and have fewer than 500 MLB plate appearances under their belt. They might not hold quite as much hype as they did at their peak while prospects, but there is still a lot of upside in all five bats.

Gavin Lux – 2B – LAD | 2021 ADP: 251 | Last Top 100 Rank: #2 (2020)

Lux has just 151 PA over the last two seasons, posting just a 76 wRC+ with 5 HR and 3 SB in that time. His ADP has dropped nearly 100 picks from last year due in part to the lack of instant success and the fact that he doesn’t have a clear hold on playing time heading into 2021. The continued presence of Chris Taylor and re-signing of Justin Turner leave Lux on the bench hoping for a super utility sort of role, though manager Dave Roberts brightened the outlook in early March with comments about his playing time:

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3/4/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• TGFBI update (0:00)
• DH/expanded playoffs considered dead (15:55)
• Framber Valdez finger issue – season-ending surgery? (18:10)
  • AAA season delayed a month

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3/2/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• TGFBI update (0:00)
• Matt Chapman starts camp as DH (19:05)
• Xander Bogaerts shoulder MRI “nothing concerning” (24:22)
• Jesse Winker hip “no serious concerns” (28:31)
• Which reclamation would you draft? Scott Kazmir v. Shelby Miller (34:12)

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3/1/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host

THRIFTING OPTIONS

• CATCHER: Salvador Perez v. Gary Sánchez (3:05)
• FIRST BASE: Matt Olson v. C.J. Cron (7:54)
• SECOND BASE: Cavan Biggio v. Jean Segura (13:11)
• SHORTSTOP: Carlos Correa v. Paul DeJong (21:11)

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Tommy Edman is fast.

Like, really fast.

He has been 97th and 95th percentile in Sprint Speed over his two MLB seasons. In that time, he has posted a healthy 77% SB success rate with 17 SBs in 22 attempts. But that rate took a big hit in 2020 as he was just 2-for-6 in the shortened season (15-for-16 in 2019). Before you hit the comments letting me know that Sprint Speed isn’t as well correlated to SBs as home-to-first time, I will point out that Edman did slip there from 4.12 to 4.20, but that’s still firmly a plus runner per Jeff’s chart in the linked article.

I found it so weird that such a speedy guy with sharp base running acumen (84% SB% in MiLB) had such a dreadful rate so I had to investigate the four times he was caught to see what happened. I do wonder how much of his 2020 numbers is holding down his SB projections for 2021 as virtually all systems have him with a teens total despite an obvious role and gobs of speed. So let’s see what happened.

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