Transcript from today’s chat. Thanks for coming out!

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03/10/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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SECOND BASE PREVIEW

• NFBC Average Draft Data (set to Online leagues and start date of 2/29/20)

The Studs (1:13)

• Gleyber Torres
• Ozzie Albies
• Jonathan Villar
• Ketel Marte
• José Altuve

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We often hear the adage “you can’t win your draft in the first round, but you can lose it.”

No, you can’t.

Even a total flop of a first-round pick doesn’t preclude you from winning your league. It’s just not how baseball drafts work. Leagues are largely won in the middle and late rounds of drafts. We as a fantasy baseball industry probably spend too much time on the first couple rounds when it comes to article and podcast analysis, but then in October we hear stories from champions about how the picks that clicked from the 10th round and later were instrumental in their title runs.

For today’s exercise, I’m going really deep. Let’s take a look at the average draft position (ADP) data from last year’s NFBC Main Event and put together the best team I can using players drafted after pick 300 (21st round or later). Admittedly, this is hardly a perfect exercise. First off, of course having the answer key makes life easier, but there’s also the fact that not all of these guys emerged immediately so even in cases where they were drafted, many were likely cut before they broke out and wound up performing for a different team.

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03/09/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

FIRST BASE PREVIEW     

• NFBC Average Draft Data (set to Online leagues and start date of 2/29/20)

Superstars (4:40)

• Cody Bellinger
• Freddie Freeman
• Pete Alonso

Studs (13:35)

• Matt Olson
• Paul Goldschmidt
• DJ LeMahieu
• Anthony Rizzo
• Max Muncy
• Jose Abreu

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Shortstop is regarded as the deepest position on the diamond and I agree with that. It is remarkably rich with talent and you might wind up with your SS, MI, and UT from the position in some drafts. I can’t recall a time where that was ever the case.

Any of the top 26 could feasibly be your starter at the position and it wouldn’t be awful. Those guys in the 19-26 range have either already done it or have real upside to be strong starters. That kind of depth is usually reserved for 1B!

The blue bar starts a new tier. I included guys with at least 10 appearances/5 starts at SS to accommodate Yahoo!’s eligibility rules. Please let me know if I forgot to include anyone who definitely belongs on the list (meaning like an obvious top 25 type… there are some guys toward the end you might like but I likely didn’t include them because they’re not good enough)

If you want to check out my list from September with some commentary on the Top 30, you can still find that here.

Let me know what you think in the comments! What’s your gameplan at SS? Are you looking to pile up multiple studs at the position or are you going to push you luck and wait for the depth to come to you?

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The keystone is probably the weakest non-catcher position, but it’s not awful. I can’t get on Brad Johnson’s train that 2B is deeper than SS, but I will concede that the lack of depth at 2B has been overstated.

The blue bar starts a new tier. I included guys with at least 10 appearances at 2B to accommodate Yahoo!’s eligibility rules (I forgot to do that at 1B).

If you want to check out my list from September with some commentary on the Top 30, you can still find that here.

Let me know what you think in the comments!

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03/04/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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STARTING PITCHERS Pt. 5 (#81-101 + 10 more!)

• NFBC Average Draft Data (set to Online leagues and start date of 2/26/20)

81-86 (1:40)

• Johnny Cueto
• Brendan McKay
• Steven Matz
• Michael Pineda
• Ross Stripling
• Reynaldo López

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First base can dry up quickly if you’re not paying attention, but I do feel better about the position than I did at this time a year ago. I’m intrigued by that tier starting with McMahon as several of those guys could pay large dividends. Does McMahon himself take a step? Will Santana be a power/speed stud again? How do Dozier, Gurriel, and Canha follow up their breakout seasons? I don’t mind playing in that tier, but I don’t want my starting 1B coming from there.

The blue bar starts a new tier.

If you want to check out my list from September with some commentary on the Top 30, you can still find that here.

Let me know what you think in the comments!

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An abbreviated version of the “Mining” on a Monday afternoon.

Blake Snell feels good and plans to play catch on Tuesday afternoon a cortisone shot in his elbow

On Sunday, neither Snell nor Cash would rule out being ready at the start of the season nor assure that he would be. Snell would likely to have been penciled in for the March 28 second game, with Charlie Morton working opening day.

I’m not moving Snell down my board at this moment. I’m keeping an eye on this situation, but holding firm on his #6 SP ranking for now.

—

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03/02/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Blake Snell’s elbow (2:00)
• Aaron Judge’s shoulder/pec issues (5:05)
• Andrew McCutchen likely not ready for OD (11:30)
• Griffin Canning likely not ready for OD (14:00)

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