We’re a week away from baseball. I unloaded the chamber and dropped 181 names here (and probably still missed SOMEONE). As with the last update, I’ll have a podcast or column out on Monday covering specifics, but for today here are the rankings with the comparison to the last list.
Let’s talk about these rankings the comments!
(Blue indicates a new tier starting)
On recent episodes of The Sleeper & The Bust, Justin and I picked pitching and hitting league leaders for the upcoming season, highlighting a main pick and then someone to keep an eye on. I wanted to take it a step further and pick some guys who could lead the league in the 5×5 categories going pick-200 or later. Here are the pitchers and today we’ll cover hitters.
BATTING AVERAGE
Jesse Winker, CIN | Pick 345
A career .285 hitter, Winker dipped down to .269 last year when his BABIP was at a career-low .286, but he was at .332 from 2017-18 and hit a cool .299 in 471 PA. He has the talent to push a mid-.300s AVG in a short sample, especially if he’s protected a bit against lefties (.176 career AVG), though not too much or else he won’t qualify for the batting title. I don’t really understand Winker’s ADP. Even acknowledging his poor defense and inability to hit lefties, he’s better than pick 345 with a career 122 wRC+ as part of a fantastic lineup.
Also consider: Howie Kendrick (254) – Not a terribly daring secondary pick as he ripped a cool .344 last year which would’ve led the league and now the NL DH ensures a full-time role for the excellent hitter.
07/16/20
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS
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Transcript is available!
| 1:05 |
: Welcome to this week’s chat! Hope y’all are doing well, let’s talk some baseball! |
| 1:08 |
: Yoenis Cespedes says he’s healthy and ready to go. Would you consider him stash worthy in standard 5×5 roto formats, and in so, in what league size would you consider him worth getting? |
| 1:09 |
: I’m starting to consider him in 12ers. The DH is playing a big role in that consideration, of course |
| 1:09 |
: How much does my value increase in 2020, without an “innings cap”? |
| 1:10 |
: A little, but let’s not just assume the Dodgers are gonna let Urias go 6+ every time all of a sudden. I’m a huge fan of the skills, but let’s not get toooo outsized in our expectations of the volume |
| 1:11 |
: Hi Paul, I hope you are doing well these days! I have an OOTP/MLB The Show question for you. I grew up playing MVP Baseball 2005, and the franchise mode on that was very deep, as I know you are aware. It was really awesome to be able to have that extensive sim/management side, but still be able to “play” in the games with realistic gameplay when I wanted to. Have you ever desired there to be a hybrid game where OOTP and MLB The Show were combined? For example, the franchise mode would have the super in-depth management aspect of OOTP, but still give you the ability to jump in and play some (or all) games in an MLB The Show fashion. I feel like the closest things we’ve ever gotten to that is MVP Baseball 2005, and I long for that all-encompassing game again… |
07/14/20
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS
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On recent episodes of The Sleeper & The Bust, Justin and I picked pitching and hitting league leaders for the upcoming season, highlighting a main pick and then someone to keep an eye on. I wanted to take it a step further and pick some guys who could lead the league in the 5×5 categories going pick-200 or later. We will start with pitchers.
WINS
Luke Weaver, ARI | Pick 201
Just under the wire with this pick which of course means that sometimes Weaver goes before 200, but I still wanted to highlight him as someone to target in this area of the draft. I’ve been on the Diamondbacks all offseason as a contender with a strong lineup, good rotation, and capable bullpen arms (with some upside candidates who could make it even better). Wins are going to be flukier than ever so with something like this I’m really looking for a pitcher I like on a quality team.
Also consider: Anthony DeSclafani (245), either Ryan Yarbrough (223) or Yonny Chirinos (276) if they got an opener with regularity
07/09/20
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
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2020 PITCHING LEAGUE LEADERS
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Transcript is below!
| 2:05 |
: It’s time to chat! I had a mock draft hence the hour delay on start time, btw. |
| 2:12 |
: You predicted Hampson to lead the league in steals. I love it. But where do you think he will get most of his PT? Is that a prediction that Hilliard and Rodgers don’t get much action? |
| 2:12 |
: I think he’ll be the primary 2B and spot into the OF |
| 2:12 |
: Though I know the Rockies cannot be trusted to be smart |
| 2:13 |
: Considering letting Nate Lowe ($4) go in a dynasty and trying to get him cheaper in the draft + keeping Eric Thames 테임즈 ($3) and his playing time instead. Wise gamble or foolish? |
| 2:15 |
: No, I can get behind this move for sure. Thames should have full-time against righties and it’s hard to guess at Lowe’s PT at all |
07/07/20
The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.
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HITTING LEAGUE LEADERS
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Name value is a helluva drug in the fantasy game and often leads to overvalued players going several rounds higher than comparable players. Sometimes the name value is indicative of a star-level player who has shown heights in his past that are worth betting on at a loftier pick than his would-be equal counterpart, but a lot of times it’s just an opportunity to scoop comparable skills much cheaper.
Here’s one such case at each position using The BAT X projections:
CATCHER
Yasmani Grandal 116 ADP | Projection .235 AVG, 27 HR, 71 RBI, 71 R, 2 SB
Salvador Perez 158 ADP | Projection .255, 28, 81, 62, 0
A big part of this difference is that fact that Perez missed all of 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. Prior to that, Perez put up four straight seasons of 20+ HR with strong RBI counts (for the position) and decent R totals which is exactly what Grandal has done in his last four years. In standard leagues, Perez is arguably better thanks to spiking some useful batting averages over the years while Grandal is always a drag in that position (OBP leagues are a different story as Grandal has a career 14% BB rate). This three-round difference is almost certainly based on the fact that Perez is returning from injury and despite being a Grandal fan, I’ll take the discount.
