08/27/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @JasonRRMartinez – Guest

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Taijuan Walker to TOR
  • How active do you expect the deadline to be?
• Joe Jiménez out as DET closer
• Is Craig Kimbrel getting the job back in CHC?
• 5 guys for the last 5 TB saves – anyone rosterable?
• Who would you trust most as COL closer: Bard-Diaz-Estevez?

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Transcript is below!

Read the rest of this entry »

08/25/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Jack Flaherty & Blake Snell deal (1:50)
• Mike Clevinger/Zach Plesac update (4:34)
• Aaron Civale excellent again (10:00)
• Merrill Kelly 켈리 scratched then IL’d (14:35)
• Casey Mize & Tarik Skubal after 2 apiece (16:53)
• Rockies SPs: Freeland/Castellini/Senzatela have been best; Marquez/Gray worst (20:02)
• Justin Verlander update (27:49)
• Ke’Bryan Hayes, Leody Taveras, Ian Anderson up (31:00)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

When you hear – or in this case read – the word “slapdick”, you likely put the word “prospect” on the end of it and think about Blake Snell’s raw and real reaction to the Tommy Pham trade to San Diego. From there, you likely think about the prospect in question, Xavier Edwards, and then the main return for the Rays, Hunter Renfroe. It takes a while for you to consider Jake Cronenworth, if you even associate him with that deal at all.

The 26-year old super-duper (you get the “duper” added when pitching is part of your skillset) utilityman got some run in the analysis of the trade, but more because he hit and pitched for the Rays Triple-A squad last year than anything else. He had his believers to be sure with our own Alex Chamberlain and Brad Johnson being among them in their Peripheral Prospects series, though he was unquestionably under the radar in this deal. He enjoyed the rabbit ball in the minors last year as it aided him to a 147 wRC+ with 10 HR and 12 SB in 406 PA. He struck out just 15% of the time and walked at a 12% clip.

Read the rest of this entry »

Only 6, what gives?! I know, I know, but this article would’ve gotten a bit out of hand in terms of length if I included four more. We’ll be back at 10 next week. By the way, if there’s someone you want me to cover in this piece, please include them in the comments and I’ll gladly take a look.

Robbie Grossman is Raking

Grossman smacked his 4th HR on Monday night, pushing his line to .288/.447/.627 and chipping in 4 SBs with those home runs. He’s always had a strong plate profile with a 13% BB rate and 21% K rate heading into this year, but it yielded essentially a league average line at a 102 wRC+. He’s still walking a ton – a career-high 18% in fact – and he’s actually striking out less than ever at 16% so what’s the difference? He’s attacking a lot more in hitter and even counts.

Grossman has dialed up his swing rate in hitter counts and the results are flowing in. He’s making contact at a 93% clip, tied for 7th-best in the league and only Daniel Murphy is swinging more (62%) than Grossman’s 46% rate in those situations. The attack-heavy approach has delivered a 1.484 OPS in hitter’s counts, well above the 1.164 league average.

Read the rest of this entry »

08/20/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Casey Mize/Dane Dunning debut review
• Seth Lugo into the rotation
• Brad Keller dominant again
• Aaron Civale CG
• Framber Valdez defeats Coors
• Adbert Alzolay sharp
• Mallex Smith sent down
• Daniel Vogelbach DFA’d

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Transcript is below!!

Read the rest of this entry »

08/18/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Tigers prospects incoming: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal
• Replacing Bo Bichette
  • Luis Garcia up, goes yard
  • Isaac Paredes
  • J.P. Crawford
  • Willy Adames
• Kirby Yates likely to have season-ending surgery
• Tommy Pham season over
• Adrian Morejon starting Tuesday

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Relievers have 47% of the wins so far this season. This is a figure that has been on the rise for a while, but this still represents a massive jump. It was at 40% a year ago and never above 40% prior to that (38%, 33%, 33%, and 31% the four years before 2019). Obviously, the wild 60-game COVID-fueled season is a driving force behind this starter/reliever win split, but we know that pitcher usage has been changing the last couple years in normal seasons so we might’ve seen another jump in RP wins even if we had played a standard 162.

Even before this rise in the share of wins, premium non-closing relievers have been viable in many league types as a ratios and strikeout source with the occasional save or win thrown in with the idea that 2-5 elite IP was a better bet than streaming a 4th-5th starter type hoping to snag a win and not hurt your ratios too much. The 2010s have seen a strong surge in these types of relievers and today I want to highlight a group of them you can consider this year.

The idea is to jump on the next Dellin Betances, Josh Hader, or Seth Lugo instead of paying full price for those guys once they’re known (see also: Anderson, Nick). Freddy Peralta is too well-known for this exercise, just to avoid anyone putting him in the comments. He’s on 86% of the Rotowire Online Championship NFBC teams which are 12-team leagues.

James Karinchak | CLE – 11.3 IP, 0.79 ERA & WHIP, 52% K, 0 W, 1 SV

He’s probably the most known of this group especially when Brad Hand had back-to-back bumpy outings in late-July and Karinchak started to get picked up as the heir apparent. Hand has settled a bit and Karinchak is windup up back on waiver wires. He’s their key fireman and will likely get the role if Hand does falter so I’d consider scooping him in leagues where middle relievers are viable and he’s available. He has strikeouts in all 10 of his outings, including more than one in four straight (3, 4, 2, and 3).

Read the rest of this entry »

One issue I’ve had with pick up articles in the past is that so few ever recommend anyone to cut so which is arguably tougher than recommending who to pick. Sure, a player in question should probably be on a roster, but should it be your roster? I have a group of interesting free agents but also a player at each of those positions who you can consider cutting as well.

This article is designed mostly for 10- and 12-team leagues as a lot of these guys aren’t available in 15+ teamers and the recommended cuts are likely worth giving a bit more time to in deeper formats as well. I’m using ESPN’s roster rate for guidance.

Here are the picks for volume 3:

Available Under 40% | Cuttable at 60%+

• C Pedro Severino – 30% | Mitch Garver – 77% (the cut recommendations at this position are for 1-C formats)

I’m still trying to come to terms with the fact that the Orioles offense is 2nd in wRC+, but in the meantime I’m considering Severino a pickup. He had a mini breakthrough last year with 13 HR and 3 SB in 341 PA with his best work coming against lefties (.273 AVG, 8 HR, 109 wRC+) and he’s amped it up a level this year. Strong work against righties is driving his fast start as he’s hitting .350 with 2 of his 4 HR against them in 40 PA.

I bought in on Garver’s 2019 breakout. Obviously, I didn’t think he’d hit 31 HR per 359 PA, but I saw him remaining a stud hitter as part of that excellent lineup. Instead, he’s off to a nightmarish start with a .167/.280/.238 line that includes just 1 HR and 2 RBI. I’m not completely out on him and of course I’d rather not cut him, but it’s hard to hold a dead weight catcher in 1-C leagues when many viable options sit on the wire. Garver is striking out more, but his swinging strike rate isn’t up much (1 pt to 9%) and his chase rate is actually down 7 points to 13%. He’s swinging and missing more in the zone which is fueling his 36% K rate.

Again, these cut candidates aren’t really “must cuts”, but rather guys who could be let go if you’re offense is really struggling, and you need to cut some of the dead weight.

Read the rest of this entry »