Paul Sporer: Helloooooo everyone!! Thanks for coming out, hopefully you’re warming up wherever you are. The ice & snow is melting rapidly here in Austin, TX as we push into the 50s

Domingo: Regarding today’s article on Soderstrom: why aren’t projection systems buying in?

Paul Sporer: I think they kind of are, coalescing around a 25/80-type projection after 25/93 last yr. They bring the AVG down to the .250s instead of last year’s .276, but that’s just smart after a .327 BABIP. Plan for the .250s and take any extra as a bonus. I’m willing to pay the Top 100 pick for Soderstrom!

Chas: On Jose Ramirez, and I mean this question literally: How does he do it?
He sports poor barrel rates, poor exit velocities, poor hard-hit rates. Yet the outcomes are always outstanding. What gives? Is it his ability to square up the ball and launch? And if so, will that skill set age poorly compared to sluggers who simply hit the ball hard?

Paul Sporer: I will say off rip I don’t really know. But you’re definitely keyed in on one of his key attributes: the ability to square it up. He rates highly since that’s been being tracked. He pulls the ball in the air and lives in his sweet spot so while he doesn’t high rate of premium barrels, he has enough bc he also doesn’t strike out so he has enough volume to be super dangerous.

His 37% Hard Hit rate is 4 pts below league average and ranks 117th among qualified hitters but his 194 hard hits are 45th. It all still starts w/the basics – Ks and BBs. He doesn’t K (8th in MLB) and gets enough BBs (46th in MLB). Since he’s putting the ball in play so much, he doesn’t have to maintain insane Barrel & HH rates to be successful and these plate skills should age well so if he can continue to be a pulled-flyball stud, his HRs shouldn’t crater as he ages.

(Took a while on this one bc I had to look up a buncha stuff!)

James: About equal cheapish cost in a 14 team. Who is my last keeper? Jackson Merrill, o Neil Cruz, or Zach Neto? I’m torn.

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all, thanks for coming out Mini-update on the SP rankings just went live, too – https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/starting-pitcher-2026-fantasy-rankings

Paul Sporer: I’ll have another update this weekend as long as the icestorm doesn’t take out my power!

Frank: In a keeper forever, would you rather have Hunter Brown OR Logan Webb and Trey Yesavage?

Paul Sporer: As much as I love Hunter Brown, I’ve gotta take the 2 shots w/Webb & Trey

Greg: Who are some guys you would bump up your rankings in a points league that heavily weighs IP, K and W?

Paul Sporer: The guys with better volume track records. I still know it’s not guaranteed as any arm can get hurt, but the guys with several 30+ start seasons under their belt are gonna get the tiebreaker v. those per-inning monsters in a points format. I won’t completely shy away from a Glasnow/Snell type as I can still supplement their missed innings off the wire, but I’m not going to load my rotation up w/those types and have to spend most of my season replacing 2-3 arms via the wire. That’s already a risk any year bc pitchers break, but inviting it w/several guys who’ve max at 120 IP should only be done if you like playing waivers for arms and are in a league with a rich enough pool to make it worthwhile

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone! Sorry I’m late, I have to add my chat back to my Reminders app. I was just going through the day as if it were Tuesday

clydethedog: NL only 4 x 4 (no runs, no k’s) Keeper League

I have Emilio Pagan and Bryce Eldridge at incredibly cheap, would you try to package them together for another cheap keeper like James Wood or Jackson Chourio?

Paul Sporer: If you can do that, absolutely. I benefitted from Pagan’s huge year but I’m cashing the hell out. No chance I’m running it back. If he beats the HRs again (1.3 in ’25), I’ll tip my cap and eat the L

Deep in Draft Prep: Who is the one player (can be any position) you’re planting your flag on who is currently being drafted outside of the top 150 who will finish the season in the the top 75?

Paul Sporer: Addison Barger (190 ADP) is someone I really like. A bit raw, but smacks the absolute piss outta the ball. I don’t think he’d need to make a huge leap to go .260/30 – think Brandon Lowe from last year.

Davio: Sox get Ranger. Who do you prefer over Tolle or Early? I’d bet on of them goes in a deal.

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, Happy New Year and thanks for coming out!!!

Greg: I have one of the best teams in my league that’s pretty even based on hitting and pitching quality keepers. 12 team points league. Who would you pick as my last three keepers: Samuel Basallo (9th round), Kevin McGonigle (25th), Zach Neto (3rd), Trey Yesavage (25th), Alex Bregman (25th).

Greg: That’s for a keep forever league – sorry meant to add that.

Paul Sporer: I feel like I wanna run the 3 round 25ers (presumably the other 2 would be 23rd/24th which is still good) buuutttt push come to shove I’d go Neto over Yesavage. Yes, he’s high priced, but he has 20/30 and 25/25 seasons the last 2 years at SS. So ya, Neto-Breg-McGonigle for me

Dave: Facing a few contract extensions in my NL only league.  Would you extend any of the following; H. Ramos, Vientos and I. Herrera?  Future playing time and position eligibility are concerns with each of them

Paul Sporer: Yes very valid concerns. Herrera can absolutely rake, but he’s DH-only and unlikely to even earn in-season C this year. — POST-CHAT ADD: Thanks to commenter TheBabbo for this info on Herrera getting time at C this year as I had missed it: “Cards are planning to use him as a catcher this season: https://www.mlb.com/news/ivan-herrera-could-reach-his-potential-in-2026“ — I still might take a shot extending him in NL only though bc the bat is so good. How long are the extensions? Vientos is someone I like as a player but my fantasy brain keeps me at arms length distance. In other words, I understand his flaws so my fandom doesn’t cloud my judgment. I hooope he fixes his K issues, but I doubt he will. I think Ramos is SF fixture for the next year or two as long as he doesn’t melt w/the bat so he could be extendable, too.

Herrera – yes (if it’s not TOO many yrs)
Ramos – maybe, leaning yes
Vientos – no, but would redraft at a cheaper price bc I love the power, just not the plate skills