Paul Sporer’s Baseball Chat – March 25th, 2026

Paul Sporer: Hey y’all!!

Carl: grabbing a couple SPs to fill my bench.  QS roto league. Could you rank Abel, Cavalli, Meyer, Eflin, Ashcraft?

Paul Sporer: Eflin, Abel, Meyer are my faves

BASEBALL SEASON: Happy baseball season!

Paul Sporer: We made it through the winter!!!! (Even if the weather hasn’t turned where you are, at least baseball is here!!)

Franklin: I just had my fantasy dynasty baseball draft…. I chose Junior Caminero over Tarik Skubal in the 2nd round (I took Corbin Carroll with the 8th pick)…. Did I screw up?

Paul Sporer: No, nothing wrong w/either choice!

Jon: Hey Paul, pick two of these three OF in a 10T OBP roto league please? Cowser, Grisham, DeLauter

Paul Sporer: Cowser/DeLauter. Would rather take one of them to be this year’s Grisham

Greg: how high are you on Wyatt Langford? I took him in the 4th rd of my inaugural dynasty draft

Paul Sporer: Huuge fan! Think we’re lookin at 30-30 potential for sure. I didn’t have the pick slots to really overload on him, but I would’ve. Really wanted him in my Main on Saturday. He had a minimum of pick-33 in the 10 drafts ahead of mine and I had pick-34…. got sniped at 30!! Texas isn’t an easy park but he’s got everywhere power and just tons of talent

Angels in the Bullpen: Do you think Ben Joyce is worth an IL stash where available?

Paul Sporer: I guess if there’s really no one else worth gambling on

Baker: We are officially 1 year away from the 2027 season….. does it start on time or canceled due to the lockout? (Best guess)

Paul Sporer: Prob behind schedule sadly

The Batman: I just want to say that I thought I was a genius doing my draft on Sunday because everything felt locked in at that point, and then my late, late Kirby Yates pick backfired when an injury snuck in and ruined my life. Baseball! (It’s fine)

Paul Sporer: I feel you! I got saved by my league mates on that the exact same player as I thought Kirby was a great CL3 option who had the job. The Pepiot injury was sneaky too. Romano available for you to pivot to or rosters locked already?

Paul Sporer: saved by league mates in that they took Kirby ahead of me, forgot to finish that thought

Pop: Hey Paul, been reading your stuff since Paint the Black…Seymour going to get some run in TB?

Paul Sporer: Heyyy that’s a long time, thanks Pop! Yes he will. Probably classic Tampa Bay shenanigans where he’s tough to time until they commit a spot to him but I really like him. Could see a couple one off starts early season unless there’s a long term spot open

Joey Bell: Is Nolan Gorman a thing again?  Seems to be doing all the things we hoped we would (with Spring caveats).

Paul Sporer: He’s at least “thing adjacent” bc when you have power like, you can flip on a dime in terms of fantasy viability. Playing time is there if he’s performing so if the power clicks, he has 30+ upside easily

Stu: What’s your projection for Benge? Seems legit but wondering if hitting low in the lineup will limit his upside

Paul Sporer: Lineup spot definitely dings him initially but lower third on a good team isn’t terrible plus he can move up if he’s good. He strikes me as an accumulator type who contributes everywhere but excels nowhere so even if the R/RBI are curbed by a lower spot, you should be getting some HR/SB/AVG goodness

Maze: i have to make a decision in my keeper league in the next 3 hours…. Do I keep Luis Arraez or Willy Adames?

Paul Sporer: Adames. I just don’t love Arraez in fantasy

Insert Witty Name Here: How many SPs should I roster if we have an innings cap of 1250?

Paul Sporer: Can still go 7 SP/2 RP in your lineup with a few bench guys to spot in. If we figure 60 IP per RP slot, that leaves 160 IP per slot for remaining 7. So that cap shouldn’t hold you back too much. Might have to slow down in season if you’re staying super healthy but most ppl don’t get 160/slot from 7 SPs

Colt 45: Need a 3B while I wait for Bichette to gain eligibility there and am leaning toward snagging Colt Keith who has a nice opening schedule (DET’s first nine games are all against RHP in warm weather/under a roof). Other options would be Miguel Vargas or Brett Baty. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Daaamn, makin it tough for me with 3 of my fave lower tier corner options. They’re close enough that I recommend you go with your guy Keith especially with the early PT feeling secured from a weather standpoint with Detroit’s schedule. In a straight ranking, I’m a little higher on Vargas but not enough to talk you out of Keith.

And that’s to say nothing of Baty, who I like quite a bit too! The early schedule stuff is the kind of thing I use for a tiebreaker on something like this where the talent is close so I like how you’ve landed on Keith

Nick: Are either Jared Jones or Justin Steele worth stashing on IL in 12 team mixed?

Paul Sporer: How many IL slots? If it’s more than 3, I don’t mind holding either as long as you can to see what’s what but prob not worth trouble if it’s just a couple ILs bc you’ll almost assuredly suffer an injury or three on your main team before they return

Kyle: for a dynasty draft would u rather build your team around Corbin Carroll or Elly De La Cruz?

Paul Sporer: Carroll

Nick: Max Meyer or Liberatore in 12 team mixed with QS instead of W?

Paul Sporer: Gotta go Libby, especially with the QS as him getting a full season last year (29 starts) gives him a better shot at the leash needed to consistently run 6 IP

Chris: Who do you think gets most at-bats with Lars Nootbaar out for STL?

Paul Sporer: NOT Nelson Velazquez for some dang reason. Really thought he’d break camp. My buddy Gregg Martin of NFBC fame was big on NV even before Noot on the 60 day IL and I really liked it, too, so got some NV shares of my own. Anyway it’s likely to be Nathan Church starting and Saggesse v. L. I think they just wanted to keep their entirely homegrown Opening Day lineup so they took Church over NV 🤣🤣

Paul Sporer: Not gonna lie, it does look cool with the uniformity

Tigers cant win division: 5 by 5, late in draft, 15 teams. Need an OF—lane thomas, herbioto Hernandez, Conine, lockridge, or Alex Thomas?  Go Guards

Paul Sporer: I finally broke up with Alex Thomas (so of course he’ll go 20-20 outta nowhere, lol). I like Heribito despite him possibly starting out on the short side of the platoon. 5 SB attempts in ST is interesting for someone not known for running. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but SB attempts is one of the spring metrics that can be a signal for the regular season. Marlins had 4th most SBs in spring (7th in 2025 regular season) and maybe they’re gonna let some of the non-burners go, too

Pete: Waited on my third in a 3OF league (with OPS as 6th hitting cat), what do you think about Varsho and DeLauter to go with Merrill and JRod?

Paul Sporer: I really wanted to make a case for DeLauter since it’s 3 OFs and the waiver pool will have guys if he flops, but Varsho is just the wrong guy for him to go up against bc he also has some major upside while bringing an actual MLB track record with it. Varsho is 21 HR/11 SB per 500 PA the last 4 yrs and ripped 20 bombs in just 271 PA last year. DeLauter’s upside is substantial (30 HR/.270s AVG) but he has such a long history of health issues and he’s a rookie so it’s just not the right spot to gamble v. the established guy IMO. If you can get CDL as a reserve, that’d be cool, but take Varsho heads up v. him

Gregg: I’m the guy who suggested you and Justin both livestream in the same draft in your chat last month. Glad you were able to pull it off! It was a lot of fun to watch and hope it’s an annual thing.

Paul Sporer: Oh hell yes! Sunday’s draft was SO fun! Really excited to to play against Justin and Joe in that league this year!!

Guest: Hey Paul – I’ll be blunt. Why do we spend so much time on categories/roto. I believe it’s undoubtedly a worse format than points. Can you help me understand why a SB should be as valuable as runs, ERA etc? Just seems ro

Paul Sporer: I just play mostly roto, so I admit I’m biased toward it. I don’t dislike pts leagues, but the things I like to play at the NFBC are 5×5. I def don’t ignore pts lg questions or anything though

Insert Witty Name Here: Im confused by the Carroll love this year.  I understand the talent because I rostered him last year. However, with the hamate bone injury and his size, am I wrong to fade him esp in Dynasty? Are there any other comparables to his body type being elite for long periods of time? Mookie maybe?

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s out of pocket to have nerves in the immediate aftermath of the hamate but dynasty is probably the one spot where the injury doesn’t bother me. The data says guys get back to their level eventually after hamate (the study I found that was floating around after Carroll/Lindor/Holliday all got it didn’t say HOW LONG until they get back, just that they did — so 2026 could have some early power struggles) so long-term, the hamate specifically doesn’t bother me for any of the three.

I’ve stayed on Carroll for redraft, though, bc he doesn’t need power to be great. He scored 121 runs in a season where he hit .232 AVG. That speed just raises his floor by way of R/SBs such that even a bit less power won’t tank his value, IMO.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: My BFF joined our baseball pool this year. He’s a software/AI type character and took our individual league settings and plugged them into his AI tool, along with fangraphs….um fangraphics? Fan statistics? Fanumbers?

MilwaukeeBeerJays: he then used what AI spit out to draft. Is this ethical and what do you think of using AI in the future? Will it just be all our AI’s drafting vs all our AIs? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I don’t think it’s a problem ethically. People have been putting info into their Excel files and SQL codes for years now and taking the results into the draft room as their guide. This no doubt shortcuts if you’re not a coder or Excel whiz, but I don’t think that inherently makes it worse or unethical. I still personally want to dive in on the players and really try to understand how they get to their numbers and how they can beat or fall short of their projections as opposed to just an answer sheet, but I also am lucky enough that this is my job so I can take it quite a bit more seriously.

This honestly isn’t too far from loading your league settings into the Auction Calculator and just taking those results into the draft room. Or loading into Rotowire and getting Jeff Erickson’s projections as your guide based but shuffled for your league settings. If anything, he did an extra step by involving AI since the 2 options I just laid out are more direct.

Bobby: How we you rank these AL Only SPs for a last spot? Kikuchi, Luis Morales, Cristian Javier, Sean Burke and Emerson Hancock

Paul Sporer: I’d play schedules here bc you’re not looking for the long-term w/these guys unless they spike big and their composite talent profiles aren’t vastly different, so lay out their first 2-3 starts and let that guide you. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/probables-grid

The Batman: In reference to the Yates IL, Romano is available and there are some other interesting options. This is an OC though so gotta wait, and my concern is if Yates is short term, does he get the job when he’s back? Fantasy! One to watch, though.

Paul Sporer: Ughhh this is the headache of SVs. Yeah, I’m not sure Romano runs away w/it. Yates could still get an opp once healthy. We just don’t know with Suzuki. Since ya gotta wait until Sunday anyway, I’d just see if you can get some guidance from the first few days. Hopefully the Angels are in some close games that shows how Suzuki intends to run his late-inning pen

Dan: Who do you think comes up first, Konnor Griffin or Colt Emerson? And when they are both up, am I crazy to think Emerson might actually be better just this year?

Paul Sporer: No idea who gets up first. It’s just too wide open once the season starts with team need driving the bus, of course. Not crazy to think Emerson could outproduce him this year.  Rankings are ironclad so #1 over #11 doesn’t guarantee you anything and it’s not like we’re talking #1 v. #90, either, so the talent gaps aren’t astronomical here.

Paredes Noots: So with Jeremy Pena somehow avoiding the IL, does that make Isaac Paredes droppable in 12 teamers?

Paul Sporer: Yeah, can’t be holdin too many bench players in 12s. If and when (it’s definitely “when”) a spot opens up, he’ll immediately be rosterable

Cole: Who is a good budget 3B?

Paul Sporer: I need league context on questions like this, y’all. Budget is different in 10- and 15-teamers!

Paul Sporer: Okamoto probablyyyy works regardless bc he’s not super expensive in 15s, so I’ll give ya him. But context context context! I wanna give the best answers, but can only do that if I know what I’m workin with!

DeBouvier: Is Grayson Rodriguez done?

Paul Sporer: I’d never declare done on him at age-26, but I wanted nothing to do w/him this year in fantasy

Jimmy: Regarding the AI question, I’ve used the Rotowire app for years because it allows me to input for our unique league settings. It’s nice to be able to see the discrepancies due to most sites understandably being 5×5 centered.  That said, I do not just blindly follow who “best available” next pick, that would absolutely kill the fun for me. But it is good to see which players are under or overvalued due to format.

Paul Sporer: Yeah, I totally agree on never being able to just take a list straight up. I’ve got my opinions on guys that are always going to influence a list. But I do love to see the discrepancies bc sometimes it’ll get me to see the light on being too high or too low and I make a change.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: I’ve read a bunch of articles saying that Roman Anthony is the 2nd coming of sliced bread. Foolish (Bailey) Baseball said that he’s actually the 2nd coming of Christian Yelich. Do you see him being a top 15 fantasy producer over the next decade or is he more of an actual MVP candidate dude who’s good at baseball?

Paul Sporer: I can’t really do better than the Yelich comp. It makes a lot of sense to me. I was hoping Crews could be a righty version of Yelich, but yiiikesss, that’s not going well right now. It’s gonna be about where the power goes with Anthony. We’ve got him at a future 70 Game Power which falls right in line w/that Yelich trajectory when he spiked 36 and 44 HRs.

DeBouvier: Is Max Muncy’s (ATH) spring breakout to be believed?

Paul Sporer: It’s enough to take the laaaate shot on it being even somewhat real, especially bc he has the park to aid him in that mission. For those who missed it, he went nuts: .380/.466/.800 w/5 HR in 58 PA. 22% Barrel, 54% Hard-Hit, 92 EV (+5 from ’25). I couldn’t get a late share of Muncy, but I did jump on Cole Young’s spring, which was similarly excellent. He doesn’t have the park, but he’s a legit prospect w/a full-time job

David: Is Fernando Cruz too risky to start tonight because of the walk rate? I’m new to fantasy baseball so don’t have a good heuristic as to where the line is with high walk pitchers. I guess this could also be about Soriano.

Paul Sporer: You can open the window a good bit more w/RPs. Are you just starting him for this one-off game hopin to get some numbers? I mean, even if it goes super-sideways, it won’t ruin the season

Paul Sporer: But you’re right to be nervous about high walk guys in general, especially the starters. They’ll just bludgeon your WHIP

Guest: Do you think I am foolish for thinking Mike Burrows is the 2nd coming of Gerrit Cole?  Both started with Pittsburgh and then went to Houston at about the same age.

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t call ya foolish bc that’s perhaps rude, but I don’t think you are correct. Burrows is an intriguing #4 type with some mid-rotation upside if Houston unlocks another level, but Cole was always an ace-in-the-making that Pittsburgh was greatly misusing and Houston brought to fruition. The similarities at right-handed Pittsburgh Pirate

Salty: If you were participating in an anti-draft where you’re aiming to get the worst stats, would Sugano pitching in COL be the #1 pick?  And can the Rockies adjust the humidor to blast when he pitches to keep the runs scored against reasonable?

Paul Sporer: I think they have limits they have to follow and yes Sugano’s a great pick.

Paul Sporer: Ok y’all, I gotta head out! We made it through the winter, baseball is HERE!!!!! Good luck if you’ve got any final drafts before tomorrow or I know some leagues like to let ALL the dust settle on draft opening weekend, so gl in those, too! SP Chart returns Sunday night for Monday. I don’t feel like the first few days really offer many start-sit toughies.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: I picked up Connelly Early off the wire this morning (get well Spencer Strider) opposed to Mike Burrows. Do you think Early has a better season that Burrows this year?

Paul Sporer: Yes Early>Burrows for me!

Paul Sporer: OK bye for real now