Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. This will be a running series this winter, check it out the other installments below.

• Part 1

Joey Gallo | TEX – OF – 77 wRC+

Gallo has been a fantasy darling for a while now spurred by back-to-back 40 HR seasons in 2017-18. The catch was a combined .208 AVG in those seasons so you had to plan around that deficiency if you wanted the power. Then in 2019 his BABIP soared to a career best .368, fueling a .253 AVG in the process, though it was just 70 games as injuries limited him. What I think was lost on many was that a .500 BABIP against lefties really drove the gains for Gallo.

In other words, it was fraudulent.

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12/10/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Carlos Santana to KC (2:30)

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12/8/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Lance Lynn to CWS; Dane Dunning + Avery Weems to TEX (0:50)
• Raisel Iglesias to LAA (22:07)
• LAST SECOND MOVE: Adam Eaton to CWS (1:02:37)

2021 THIRD BASE, PT. 1

The King

• Jose Ramirez 8 (34:10)

The Stars

• Manny Machado 21 (38:10)
• DJ LeMahieu 28 (already discussed at 1B/2B)
• Nolan Arenado 34 (49:03)
• Alex Bregman 37 (54:02)

—

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Approximately 67 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Calling someone a flop in two-month season requires some serious caveats, air quotes around “flop”, or both. That doesn’t mean there weren’t several disappointing players that deserve a deeper look to see what’s going on. We will investigate some of them today and if you find this exercise worthwhile, we can make it a series!

Victor Robles | WAS – OF – 65 wRC+

Robles had the standard “better in fantasy” season in 2019 as his 17 HR and 28 SB overshadowed his uninspired .255/.326/.419 line. His proponents (of which I am one) acknowledged the poor batted ball profile but felt that it was premature to lock the 23-year old into his 2019 levels. Oh, he wasn’t locked in… turns out he could get worse!

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12/3/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Non-tenders: Eddie Rosario, Kyle Schwarber, David Dahl, Adam Duvall, Travis Shaw, Archie Bradley, Nomar Mazara, Carlos Rodon (1:00)
• José Iglesias to LAA (39:30)
• Trevor May to NYM (43:14)

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12/1/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Mike Minor to KC (3:30)
• Michael A. Taylor to KC (9:25)

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Transcript is below!

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11/24/20

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to Fangraphs! With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. The premium ad-free membership at $50 year supports site growth and also includes faster load speeds and better site performance. You can also support monthly for just $3.

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• @sporer – Host
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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

• Charlie Morton to ATL (1:10)
• Francisco Lindor, Blake Snell, Nolan Arenado & Kris Bryant on the market (5:31)

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I remember entering 2020 drafts thinking the UT-only pool was interesting given some star power headlining it and some sneaky later round guys who could earn eligibility elsewhere but still had to be drafted in the UT spot. It’s always been a soft market given that a lot of fantasy managers are afraid to fill the UT spot too early. OK, maybe “afraid” is overstating it, but they are certainly reluctant to do so just in case a late round gem at a position they already have filled comes available.

It turns out that 2020 had nothing on this 2021 UT-only market. It’s booming! The NFBC is using 7 games in 2020 for eligibility so keep that in mind as we look at this pool. First, a quick look back at the 2020 UT-only factors:

• Nelson Cruz – 66
• Yordan Alvarez – 128 (after getting COVID & knee issues arose)
• Shohei Ohtani – 144
• Khris Davis – 184
• Miguel Andújar – 273
• Nick Solak – 284

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Earlier this week, I wrote up a team of guys who could be top 75 players next year. It is a different way to write about breakouts and I want to run it back today with some deeper breakouts. These guys have a real shot at being top 150 players in 2021 which for reference is where guys like Jorge Soler and Yasmani Grandal are being drafted meaning these would be high impact pieces of your team if they panned out.

Max Stassi, C 336 ADP

His awesome 2020 was undercut by only playing 31 games so you may not have noticed that he hit 7 HR and 20 RBI with a .278/.352/.533 line in 105 PA. With Jason Castro gone, the job is clear for Stassi to take on full time and sit just once a week for rest. Stassi has a strong glove reputation and the bat might be catching up.

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