Author Archive

10 Watchlist Guys: Vol. 5

Most platforms have a feature where you can click something by the player’s name to put them on a virtual watchlist. It is smart to use this feature before the season starts because once it starts you be sorting by stats and you could miss out on someone you really want about to get a new role because you sorted by PA and he just didn’t show very high.

Last week I said when Jesús Aguilar “starts to hit homers, he will be an all-formats play for sure” and he promptly reeled off five dingers in his next six games, taking his OPS from .739 to .921 in the process.

SHALLOW LEAGUES (mixed leagues – 10 or fewer teams)

Tyler O’Neill | OF, STL

On fire since returning from the IL, O’Neill is a power/speed profile whose lofty strikeout rate (39% this year; 35% career) often curbs his overall fantasy viability. He had just a .143/.172/.286 line in eight games before hitting the IL but has surged with a .273/.304/.682 line in seven games since his groin injury healed.

He has 3 HR and 1 SB over that time (23 PA), though his palatable 26% K rate might be the most important number behind this run. He will likely never be an AVG asset because of his swing-and-miss tendencies, but if he can get back to last year’s 27% K/10% BB then we could finally see a true breakout (something like a .245 AVG with 30 HR and 15 SB).

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 922 – Vlad Surging, Jazz Halted, and Franco’s Placement

4/29/21

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Paul Sporer’s Chat – April 28th, 2021

Transcript is live!

3:34

Paul Sporer: Gotta keep it to about 30 min today so let’s roll!!

3:34

confused fantasy player: Is it time to sell low on Kyle Hendricks?

3:34

Paul Sporer: It’s 2 great and 2 bad starts, I’m not selling

3:34

aaron boone demoted to AAA: where do you get your ideas from?

3:36

Paul Sporer: To write about? All sorts of different places. Just persuing leaderboards, watching games, seeing some stat on Quick Pitch that spurs me to look deeper… just consumption of baseball stuff in general. I keep a notes app file of ideas that pop into my head randomly. Sometimes, though, I stare at a blank Word doc for an hour-plus

3:36

Glad Vlad is on my team: Are you a believer in Civale?

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 921 – Time to Worry About These Yankees?

4/27/21

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NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS/INJURIES/RUMORS

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Assessing The Viability of Big Strikeout Rate Improvements

As more batters push up past 60 PA, we have reached one of the first major stabilization points of the season with strikeouts. It doesn’t mean that we’re observing their true talent level after 60 PA, but rather that we may be experiencing a shift in that talent, so it is worth looking at some of the major outliers to see if they have made observable changes to fueling the improvement.

Omar Narváez, MIL | -20 pts to 11% in 65 PA

His 2020 collapse really felt like an outlier. He moved to the Brewers and while they seemed to do a great job at teaching him how to better catch, it came at the expense of his bat. Now it probably isn’t as simple as “he focused so much on defense that he let his hitting lag” and it probably has much more to do with it being a small 126 PA sample (60 wRC+, 31% K).

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10 Watchlist Guys: Vol. 4

Most platforms have a feature where you can click something by the player’s name to put them on a virtual watchlist. It is smart to use this feature before the season starts because once it starts you be sorting by stats and you could miss out on someone you really want about to get a new role because you sorted by PA and he just didn’t show very high.

This is starting to feel like a weekly thing…

None of last week’s write ups were standout performers.

SHALLOW LEAGUES (mixed leagues – 10 or fewer teams)

Jesús Aguilar | 1B, MIA

He is the full-time 1B for the Marlins and he’s walking more (15%) than he’s striking out (10%), but his power hasn’t come through yet (0 HR). If he can keep his AVG around its current .286 when he does start to hit homers, he will be an all-formats play for sure. Keep an eye on him.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 919 – Sputtering Stud Starters

4/22/21

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Surging Swinging Strike Rates

I wanted to dive in on the guys with the biggest swinging strike rate (SwStr%) gains in the early going (min. 10 IP). Where are they getting these new whiffs from, is the surge sustainable, and has it changed their fantasy outlook substantially?

Alex Cobb, LAA | +9 pts to 19%

Cobb’s fast start is tied directly to the return of his splitter aka The Thing. The 1.5 Pitch Value makes it the third best splitter in the league thus far (by results, Pitch Value doesn’t guarantee future success), behind only Kevin Gausman (4.1) and Aaron Civale (2.1). He showed some flashes of getting back on track last year, particularly with the splitter which earned a 2.6 Pitch Value.

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The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 918 – Duffy Dominant; Lamet Returns Wednesday

4/20/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

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Discarded/Lesser-Used Pitches

Pitch arsenals are always evolving and while we often discuss new pitches being featured by guys, the ones that fall by the wayside don’t get as much run. Let’s look at a handful of pitches that have either disappeared altogether or if they still throw it, it has experienced at least a 10-point drop.

FOUR SEAMERS

Dane Dunning, TEX | -21% to 0%

Dunning split his fastball usage between a four-seamer and sinker last year, but this year it has essentially been all sinkers (66%) and a couple of cutters (5%). The four-seamer generated a -2.3 Pitch Value/100 (PV/100) thrown last year while the sinker was at 3.4 so he got rid of the bad pitch and funneled into the one that was working. The results have remained solid with a 2.6 PV/100, good for 21st of the 129 pitchers with at least 10 innings so far. While we have seen many pitchers ditch their sinkers for more four-seamers, Dunning is going the other way and it is working for him.

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