90-72 (2nd in Division; 10th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 54 (9th)

RP Wins: 36 (13th)

Saves: 50 (4th)

1+ Save: 7 (Alex Reyes 29, Giovanny Gallegos 14, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Luis García 2, Kwang Hyun Kim 김광현, Ryan Helsley, Justin Miller 1)

100+ Ks: 1 (Adam Wainwright 174)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 5 (Paul Goldschmidt .294, Tyler O’Neill .286, Edmundo Sosa .271, Harrison Bader .267, Dylan Carlson .266)

65+ Runs: 5 (Goldschmidt 102, Tommy Edman 91, O’Neill 89, Nolan Arenado 81, Carlson 79)

65+ RBI: 5 (Arenado 105, Goldschmidt 99, O’Neill 80, Yadier Molina 66, Carlson 65)

10+ HRs: 8 (Arenado, O’Neill 34, Goldschmidt 31, Paul DeJong 19, Carlson 18, Bader 16, Molina, Edman 11)

5+ SBs: 4 (Edman 30, O’Neill 15, Goldschmidt 12, Bader 9)

BEST BUY: Tommy Edman

Edman’s primary value comes from his speed as he was 30-for-35 on the bases last year. He also chipped in 91 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, and a .262 AVG, but he is drafted for the SBs and positional flexibility (he’ll be 2B/OF to start 2022). Only 15 guys are projected for 20+ SBs next year according to Steamer and from that group, only Myles Straw (142) and Akil Baddoo (168) are available cheaper than Edman (84). With his contact and speed, Edman is a nice BABIP away from chasing down a .300 AVG, too.

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90-72 (2nd in Division; 11th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 45 (13th)

RP Wins: 45 (4th)

Saves: 51 (3rd)

1+ Save: 8 (Drew Steckenrider 14, Paul Sewald 11, Kendall Graveman 10, Rafael Montero 7, Keynan Middleton 4, Yohan Ramirez, Diego Castillo 2, Erik Swanson 1)

100+ Ks: 5 (Yusei Kikuchi 163, Logan Gilbert 128, Chris Flexen 플렉센 125, Marco Gonzales 108, Sewald 104)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Ty France .291, J.P. Crawford .273)

65+ Runs: 4 (Mitch Haniger 110, Crawford 89, France 85, Kyle Seager 73)

65+ RBI: 3 (Seager 101, Haniger 100, France 73)

10+ HRs: 7 (Haniger 39, Seager 35, France 18, Luis Torrens 15, Jarred Kelenic 14, Dylan Moore 12, Tom Murphy 11)

5+ SBs: 5 (Moore 21, Jake Fraley 10, Kelenic, Jake Bauers 6, Sam Haggerty 5)

BEST BUY: Mitch Haniger

Injuries cost Haniger 99 games in 2019 and all of 2020. Once healthy, he picked up where he left off as a premium power source. His power metrics are strong and he has decent plate skills so if he can remain healthy, he’s a 30-90 lock. A couple of his biggest injuries have been fluky so I don’t think he has exceptionally higher injury risk with 157 games played in two of his last three seasons (63 in ’19, 0 in ’20). He goes just outside the Top 100, a fair price for such a capable power bat.

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11/23/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Justin Verlander back to HOU (2:25)
• Anthony DeSclafani back to SF (6:54)
  • Alex Wood, Alex Cobb to follow?
• Sandy Alcantara nearing an extension (11:20)
• Brent Honeywell Jr. to OAK (15:17)
• Clint Frazier, Rougned Odor, Tyler Wade DFA’d (20:35)

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88-71 (1st in Division; 12th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 57 (7th)

RP Wins: 31 (2nd)

Saves: 40 (15th)

1+ Save: 4 (Will Smith 37, Chris Martin, Jacob Webb, Sean Newcomb 1)

100+ Ks: 5 (Charlie Morton 216, Max Fried 156, Ian Anderson 124, Drew Smyly 117, Huascar Ynoa 100)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Austin Riley .303, Freddie Freeman .300, Ronald Acuña Jr. .283)

65+ Runs: 5 (Freeman 120, Ozzie Albies 103, Riley 91, Dansby Swanson 78, Acuña Jr. 72)

65+ RBI: 4 (Riley 107, Albies 106, Swanson 88, Freeman 83)

10+ HRs: 7 (Riley 33, Freeman 31, Albies 30, Swanson 27, Acuña Jr. 24, Adam Duvall 16, Jorge Soler 14)

5+ SBs: 4 (Albies 20, Acuña Jr. 17, Swanson 9, Freeman 8)

BEST BUY: Max Fried

Fried is a budding ace at #2 prices. After a slow start and injury (11.45 ERA in 3 starts then a 3-week hamstring IL stint), he reeled off 154.7 innings of a 2.44 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. He was pretty sharp in the playoffs, too, with a couple of rough 2nd innings being the only blips on his record. He had a 4.23 ERA across five starts, allowing 7 of his 13 ER in the 2nd innings of Game 5 in the NLCS and Game 2 in the World Series. If healthy, his first 200-inning season should be on the horizon and if he is at or near the 2.84 ERA/1.09 WHIP we have seen since 2020, then a top 10 finish will come with it.

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86-76 (3rd in Division; 13th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 57 (6th)

RP Wins: 29 (25th)

Saves: 39 (18th)

1+ Save: 5 (Lou Trivino 22, Jake Diekman 7, Andrew Chafin 5, Sergio Romo 3, Yusmeiro Petit 2)

100+ Ks: 5 (Frankie Montas 207, Sean Manaea 194, Chris Bassitt 159, Cole Irvin 125, James Kaprielian 123)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 2 (Tony Kemp .279, Matt Olson .271)

65+ Runs: 3 (Olson 101, Mark Canha 93, Matt Chapman 75)

65+ RBI: 3 (Olson 111, Chapman 72, Jed Lowrie 69)

10+ HRs: 8 (Olson 39, Chapman 27, Seth Brown 20, Canha, Sean Murphy 17, Lowrie, Ramón Laureano 14, Mitch Moreland 10)

5+ SBs: 5 (Starling Marte 25 [total: 47, led MLB], Canha, Laureano, Elvis Andrus 12, Kemp 8)

BEST BUY: Mark Canha

He is a free agent, but unless he signs before I finish these (and with a remaining team), then I won’t get to write him up.

Canha’s hip injury seemed to linger and really undercut his season as he posted just a .659 OPS with 6 HR and 5 SB in 300 PA after returning. Prior to that, he had an .826 OPS with 11 HR and 7 SB in 325 PA which was in line with the guy he had been in 2019-20 (.876 OPS in 740 PA). The sneaky speed has sustained his value and made him a very valuable player. He ranked 126th this past year even with the weak second half and yet he is being drafted at pick 276 so far. He will likely jump a bit when he signs, but that would be a round at most so there is room for the 33-year-old to regress some and still be a plus buy in the draft.

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Cedric Mullins was one of the best breakouts of 2021 with a 30 HR/30 SB season that came out of nowhere. But what comes next? There have been 11 seasons of at least 30/30 since 2011 featuring 10 players and Ryan Braun doing it back-to-back in 2011-12. We actually saw four in 2011 and then two in 2012 before a drought that José Ramírez and Mookie Betts ended in 2018.

Here are all 11:

I wanted to look at what these players did before and after their magical season to see if it might help us with our Mullins projection.

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83-79 (3rd in Division; 14th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 55 (8th)

RP Wins: 28 (27th)

Saves: 41 (14th)

1+ Save: 10 (Heath Hembree, Mychal Givens 8, Amir Garrett, Lucas Sims 7, Michael Lorenzen 4, Tejay Antone 3, Sean Doolittle, Brad Brach, Josh Osich, Michael Feliz 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Tyler Mahle 210, Luis Castillo 192, Sonny Gray 155, Wade Miley 125)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 7 (Nick Castellanos .309, Jesse Winker .305, Tyler Stephenson .286, Tyler Naquin .270, Jonathan India .269, Joey Votto .266, Kyle Farmer .263)

65+ Runs: 5 (India 98, Castellanos 95, Winker 77, Votto 73, Eugenio Suárez 71)

65+ RBI: 6 (Castellanos 100, Votto 99, Suárez 79, Winker 71, Naquin 70, India 69)

10+ HRs: 9 (Votto 36, Castellanos 34, Suárez 31, Winker 24, India 21, Naquin 19, Farmer 16, Stephenson, Aristides Aquino 10)

5+ SBs: 2 (India 12, Naquin 5)

BEST BUY: Joey Votto

Votto spiked a huge season selling out for power and smashing 36 HR with a .938 OPS in 533 PA. He will be 38 years old next season which is what will keep his price in check and why he is their Best Buy. He is trending around pick-171 in early drafts and I suspect he will remain outside of the Top 150. Even if he doesn’t repeat 2021 – and I doubt he will – this profile feels like a relatively safe .250/30 at CI or UT.

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11/16/21

The latest episode of “The Sleeper and the Bust” is live. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!!

Follow us on Twitter

• @sporer – Host
• @justinmasonfwfb – Co-Host/Producer

PATREON

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INJURIES/TRANSACTION NEWS

• Eduardo Rodriguez to DET (1:47)
• Noah Syndergaard to LAA (7:17)
• José Berríos extension with TOR (13:30)
• Seiya Suzuki announcement incoming (23:46)

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82-80 (2nd in Division; 15th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 40 (20th)

RP Wins: 42 (10th)

Saves: 36 (21st)

1+ Save: 7 (Héctor Neris 12, Ian Kennedy 10, José Alvarado 5, Ranger Suárez 4, Archie Bradley, Sam Coonrod 2, Connor Brogdon 1)

100+ Ks: 3 (Zack Wheeler 247, Aaron Nola 233, Suárez 107)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 4 (Bryce Harper .309, Jean Segura .290, J.T. Realmuto .263, Odúbel Herrera .260)

65+ Runs: 3 (Harper 101, Andrew McCutchen 78, Segura 76)

65+ RBI: 4 (Harper 84, McCutchen 80, Realmuto 73, Rhys Hoskins 71)

10+ HRs: 8 (Harper 35, McCutchen, Hoskins 27, Brad Miller 20, Realmuto 17, Segura 14, Herrera, Didi Gregorius 13)

5+ SBs: 6 (Harper, Realmuto 13, Segura 9, McCutchen, Herrera 6, Travis Jankowski 5)

BEST BUY: Aaron Nola

It was an inconsistent season for Nola as his core skills remained remarkably strong (25% K-BB, 5th in MLB), but managed just a 4.63 ERA due in large part to a 1.3 HR/9 and 8.2 H/9 in 180.7 IP. He isn’t some sneaky sleeper as even those who just look at surface stats will see a 1.13 WHIP and realize he is worth drafting, but I’ll take any sort of discount here and run with it!

Make no mistake, Bryce Harper is an excellent buy, too. I’m a long-time Harper stan even when he was foolishly being regarded as overrated. But I’d rather not use the obvious superstar in this field when possible.

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80-82 (2nd in Division; 16th in MLB)

[PREVIOUS REVIEWS]

SP Wins: 48 (12th)

RP Wins: 32 (20th)

Saves: 39 (18th)

1+ Save: 5 (Emmanuel Clase 24, James Karinchak 11, Bryan Shaw 2, Nick Wittgren, Trevor Stephan 1)

100+ Ks: 4 (Triston McKenize 136, Shane Bieber 134, Cal Quantrill 121, Zach Plesac 100)

.260+ AVG (min. 350 PA): 3 (Amed Rosario .282, Harold Ramirez .268, José Ramírez .266)

65+ Runs: 2 (Ramírez 111, Rosario 77)

65+ RBI: 2 (Ramírez 103, Franmil Reyes 85)

10+ HRs: 6 (Ramírez 36, Reyes 30, César Hernández 18 [total: 21], Bobby Bradley 16, Rosario 11, Austin Hedges 10)

5+ SBs: 7 (Ramírez 27, Bradley Zimmer 15, Myles Straw, Rosario 13, Andrés Giménez 11, Eddie Rosario 9 [total: 11], Oscar Mercado 7)

BEST BUY: José Ramírez

I know it’s a bit boring to pick the 1st rounder of the team, but I also refuse to pretend that Ramirez isn’t the pick here. He is averaging 30 HR and 20 SB per 555 PA over the last five seasons with three of those seasons including 100+ runs and two of them with 100+ RBIs.

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