The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1005 – Potential Gems via The BATX

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January 25, 2022

1/25/22

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BAT X GEMS

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Approximately 58 minutes of joyous analysis.

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Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

4 Comments
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Buhners Rocket ArmMember since 2017
4 years ago

One thing to consider when using different projection systems is their positional adjustments. The BATX has 2B being much lower replacement level with a positional adjustment $4.4 above Steamer for 5×5. Taking Segura as an example, when you’re talking about a just-above-replacement-level player small variations in projections across a spectrum of players can move a guy up or down a handful of spots. If a relatively similar projection can give you a $10 difference then maybe it’s probably important to assess replacement level at the position and decide if Segura is the right player for you at a late ADP who will let you avoid an ugly starter while filling other positions earlier. It speaks to the importance of knowing where replacement level is across all the positions.

4
dgeltMember since 2020
4 years ago

On the other side of things, I was floored seeing both The BAT and Steamer’s projections for Julio Urias. Any thoughts as to why? I feel like all his skills point towards the breakout being sustainable.
My only other thought is that whatever in his profile is inflating his ERA projection, it seems like it inflates his SIERA, FIP, and xFIP too since he historically has outperformed them.

0
hebrewMember since 2016
4 years ago

Guys help …. rebuilding an ottoneu team from the depths of hell and have the option of keeping a $9 Jean Segura. Steamer calls this a huge bust but BATX says he’s a value.

What you guys think? I currently have $7 Ty France and $3 Kolten Wong at 2B and MI right now, with an empty hole at third base.

-1
Buhners Rocket ArmMember since 2017
4 years ago
Reply to  hebrew

Segura is a pretty safe place to spend $9 to fill 2B/MI for a competing team, but not for a rebuilding one. His established level of consistent production makes him a safe bet for ~5 PPG over 140-ish games, and with McCutchen gone from Philly the leadoff spot is probably Segura’s which means tons of PA’s protecting his floor against age-based regression. 700 points is historically worth about $6-10 of production at 2B/SS, and if somehow he plays 150+ games he could produce value of $15+.

For a rebuilding team such as yours, he won’t garner much interest via trade at any points and that $ is probably better spent elsewhere on upside and kicking in the extra few bucks to buy more elite talent in the auction to flip during the season. FWIW as a contending team I’m keeping him at $8 without batting an eyelash no matter which projection system I’m using.

2