In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom, Justin, and Trey discuss some early results in the Ottoneu Power Rankings, particularly what those results can tell us about the state of ottoneu strategy across the various types of leagues.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom and Joe discuss some players who have changed their value in the early going, specifically with respect to the Ottoneu FGPts format.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom, Trey, and Justin discuss the Standings Dashboard, a tool that helps you analyze your team’s performance and compare it to the league. Later, we talk about how to handle a hot or cold start from your team, and our strategies for buying and selling in April.

Here’s a link to the standings dashboard. Save the file to your own google drive, then open it up, enter your league number and check out how your team stacks up against your competitors! Right now the standings dashboard only works for Fangraphs Points leagues, the most common format – we’ll be sure to let everyone know when we have an upgraded version that works for SABR points as well.

Editor’s note: We’ve gotten some good feedback about the audio quality, and I hope it’s been getting noticeably better the past couple episodes as we improve our on-air and editing skills. Thanks for bearing with us as we work to get better (and sorry in advance for a little audio hiccup in this episode)! Feel free to continue letting us know how we’re doing, and to comment with any other questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics.

We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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In this episode of OttoGraphs, we discuss some common questions new owners have early in the season, including lineup strategies and how to value free agents in 48-hour auctions. We also talk about some notable performances from the past two weeks, and what they mean for ottoneu owners, before finishing up with a quick guessing game about some of 2016’s worst performers to this point.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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In this episode of OttoGraphs, Tom and Trey interview Niv Shah, the creator of Ottoneu.

We discuss a wide variety of topics, including, but not limited to:

• the brand new Ottoneu Community (You can find out more about the Ottoneu Community here.)
• the first season of Ottoneu Football
• the history and early development of the Ottoneu
• Niv’s plans to expand Ottoneu
• some of the changes and updates to Ottoneu over the past year

If you haven’t yet, be sure to check out Episode 5 of OttoGraphs as well, in which we’ve re-released an older interview with Niv from about a year ago. Joe and Trey covered some of the same topics that we’ve discussed in this episode, and it’s really fascinating to see how much Ottoneu has changed over the course of just one year.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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In this episode of OttoGraphs, we take a trip back to spring 2015, when Trey and Joe interviewed Niv Shah, the creator of Ottoneu, for an early predecessor of this show. We’re re-releasing the bulk of that interview today for any Ottoneu fans interested in taking a look back some of the origins of the game, and how it has changed over the past year. Please pardon the audio quality – as you may imagine, this interview was recorded at a time when all of us in the OttoGraphs crew had limited experience with this sort of thing, but after a little editing magic to spruce things up your ears should come through the experience just fine. Then, get ready for a podcast double-shot, episode 6 is coming up later today, featuring a brand new interview with Niv!

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics. We can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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You just finished up your first ottoneu auction. You read up on all the strategies, you set your values, and you left the draft the proud owner of one Kyle Schwarber. Fast forward a few weeks and one outfield collision: Schwarber is out for the season, while you’re left looking at a hole in your lineup big enough for Yoenis Cespedes to ride a horse through. What do you do? Because of ottoneu’s large roster size, the waiver wire is usually sparse, and handling long term injuries can be a tough proposition. There are a few common courses of action you can take, and they all have their own strengths and weaknesses, depending on your team situation. Let’s dive in:

Become a seller

Time to rip the band-aid off: it’s possible a key injury will simply be too much to overcome. In Schwarber’s case, the damage to your team probably isn’t catastrophic, since you should be able to mix and match outfielders for a few weeks while you decide what to do. But if you’re unlucky enough to suffer an injury to your team’s best player, or multiple major injuries (let’s say you owned A.J. Pollock, and Jhonny Peralta, and then lost Tyson Ross for an unknown amount of time), the reality is that you may need to start thinking about 2017. Before you make that decision though, you’ll want to think critically about your situation. Are you really out of luck, or do you have enough depth to ride out a less disastrous injury to a single player? This is one area where thinking about the math of ottoneu comes in handy – an injury to one player isn’t likely to hurt your rate production badly enough to sink your season overnight, but if you find yourself in danger of missing your games cap at a position, that can add up to trouble very quickly if you can’t find a replacement. That’s because settling for a lower rate production might only cost you a fraction of a point per game, and while that isn’t great, missing your games cap can cost you as much as 4 points for every game you leave unplayed, because you’re getting zero points, instead of at least getting some points, even a below-replacement amount. (Assuming you’re playing FG or SABR points – in ottoneu’s roto formats missing your games cap at a position isn’t quite the same handicap) On the pitching side, the situation is similar, but with one saving grace – you can make up missed innings much more easily than missed games in the outfield, for example. This is because, while you can start up to five pitchers at one time, you generally only need to start one or two each day to meet your innings cap. If you find yourself behind pace, you can bring in reinforcements and start 3 or more pitchers some days, and make up ground. This tactic is much less effective in the outfield, where meeting your cap of 810 games means you need to start five outfielders on the vast majority of days throughout the entire season. So, if your ace goes down to Tommy John surgery, you have a bit more time to look for a replacement than if you lose one of your core hitters.

If you do decide to sell, follow some of the key guidelines we’ve encouraged for a selling or rebuilding team – try to stay patient, and make sure any deal you make provides clear benefit to your team.Think specifically about the value you’ll be adding to your team, and that you’ll be sending away. Set a clear target: If you were planning to contend in 2016, maybe you can retool a bit around your core players and shift that window to 2017, instead of just rebuilding for the generic “future”. Don’t let yourself get sucked into a panic move – there are few more surefire ways to kill a team than by making a rash decision that you regret a few weeks later. Patience, padawans.

Buy a replacement…

…or, more accurately, trade for a replacement, since in ottoneu there aren’t likely to be many starting options available on the waiver wire. Go ahead and check, though, sometimes you’d be surprised who is available and overlooked by your leaguemates! If there’s nobody available (or, nobody good), it’s time to talk trades, especially if your team is a contender for this year.

Before deciding to make a deal, think hard about your team and what your production will look like for the rest of the season. You generally don’t want to spend resources on acquiring a top replacement if your team is out of contention, but if you’re trying to win it all this year, it will be important, perhaps critical, to find a replacement for an injured star at some point. Many teams already buy aggressively when they’re contending, so you may need to be equally aggressive to replace your lost production and keep up with the other contenders. If your team is on the fence between buying and selling, a major injury will force your hand a bit – you may have hoped to wait a but before deciding whether to buy or sell, but now you’ll need to make a decision more quickly, especially if you want to stay a contender deep into the season. There’s no easy answer, but as always, slowing down your thought process and thinking critically can help you avoid a rash decision and make the right move for your situation.

Once you’ve decided to buy, again, you should follow some of the same strategies outlined for a seller. Consider the material impact to your team, and don’t let yourself get sucked into a panic move. You don’t want to trade all your prospects in an emergency move, only to find yourself wishing you had kept them and reloaded for 2017 instead.

What do you do with the injured player?

Depending on your situation and the player’s salary, an injured player might have a wide range of value. For example, when Pollock went down in spring training, many owners had him for prices below his average salary of $15, while the general consensus was that his true value was above $20 or $25. At those prices, an injured Pollock still represents a certain amount of value, especially to a team targeting 2017 for contention. Another player who has considerable trade value in many leagues is Greg Bird – despite missing the 2016 season, the fact that he was owned for only a few dollars in most leagues means that many rebuilding teams still have interest in trading for him.

If you’re one of those owners with an injured player over ten dollars, it’s often tempting to cut the player loose and use the salary savings to win another auction. But there’s a good chance you can get a better return if you shop your player around, and try to find out who else in your league is interested in stashing him. I’m going to sound like a broken record, but yet again the best way to judge a deal is to make sure to think about exactly what it offers you. If you’re sending Pollock away, are you getting someone who could provide you equal value in 2017, or in 2016, if you’re trying to compete this year? There aren’t perfect answers to those questions, but by pausing to consider the value of each player involved, you’ll have an advantage over other owners who might be more prone to making a rash decision.

It’s also possible your injured player will have little to no value – if you just completed your first ottoneu auction and you own a player like Schwarber, Pollock, or Ross at far above their average price, you’re probably not going to find a buyer, at least in the traditional sense. You may still have options, though! First, dropping the player will clear up half of his salary in cap space, and if someone else goes ahead and picks him up at half price, you’ll get the other half of your cap space back. One downside is that if you drop a player, you can’t bid on him at auction, so you may be forced to watch as another team picks him up at a great stash price. A creative strategy that owners have explored recently is the idea of essentially splitting the free cap from a cut with another owner: as part of a larger trade, you can send an expensive injured player (and a loan for part of his salary) to a leaguemate, with the understanding that they’ll cut him. This gives you a chance to bid on him at the reduced price and keep him next year at a more reasonable salary, while giving your trading partner a chance to free up some additional cap space when they cut him.

A word about the 60-day DL

The 60-day DL is a common buzzword among ottoneu fans, because it holds a special place in the rules of ottoneu. Any player placed on the 60-day DL automatically goes on the ottoneu disabled list as well, giving you a free roster spot to acquire another player. However, players on the 15-day DL receive no such special treatment, so for less serious injuries, you’ll need to either operate using only the depth already on your roster, or consider cutting or trading a player on the 15-day DL to free up space for a new acquisition. The 60-day DL can be unpredictable, because teams often do not add players to the 60-day DL until weeks after an initial injury – this is because teams are only allowed add players to the 60-day when they need to make use of his 40-man roster spot to bring in another player, and not before. During the season, this can lead to some frustration as ottoneu owners hope for an MLB team to move their injured player to the 60-day, but all you can do is stay aware of the rules and play with them in mind. One way you can be proactive is to prepare thoroughly for your annual auction – we often see owners draft a player expecting to see him hit the 60-day DL, only to have to wait weeks or months, and you can avoid getting stuck in that kind of situation by doing some research on official DL statuses before the draft, and never assuming you can predict whether a player will go on the 15- or 60-day DL.

Unfortunately, injuries are an unpredictable part of the game, just like they are in real life, and if there’s one thing we can say for sure about injuries in ottoneu, it’s that there’s no one-size-fits-all answer for how to proceed. Three different teams could own Kyle Schwarber at the same price, but if one is contending, one rebuilding, and one came into the season on the fence, those owners will have very different needs when it comes to their next move. If you find yourself in the unfortunate position of a major injury, the best thing you can do is slow down and think critically about exactly what your team needs, and how to try and reach that goal. Best of luck, and may your players stay as healthy as possible!

In this episode of OttoGraphs, recorded just before the beginning of the regular season, Joe and Tom talk about some of their ottoneu-specific bold predictions (Joe, Tom), and banter about a few questionably notable recent events in baseball.

Feel free to comment with any questions or suggestions you may have about this episode or future topics, and we can be reached individually on Twitter:

@OttoneuTrades

@JustinVibber

@TomHasOpinions

@Fazeorange

Lastly, special thanks to Treemen who provided our intro and outro music. If you like what you hear, please check out their other work at http://treemen.bandcamp.com/

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As with Joe’s earlier post, these ottoneu predictions specifically reference the FGPts scoring system. Let’s get down to it!

1) No catcher will score 800 points, and two or fewer will score over 600 points.

At face value, this one might not seem so bold, but keep in mind that at least one catcher has scored over 800 points each of the past few seasons, and several over 600. The position is always on the verge of falling under these thresholds, though, and this prediction is a bet that this could be the year. Perhaps Buster Posey underperforms a bit, Jonathan Lucroy doesn’t play such a heavy schedule of games, and some of the middle-tier options split playing time more than expected. We’ve talked before about how catching is a deep but very flat position in ottoneu, and this would be further proof of the fungibility of a position where a dozen players can all give you similar production.

2) Zack Cozart will be a top 10 shortstop in FGPts.

If Cozart keeps up his 50 game breakout, he could make this happen, no problem. But that’s a huge “if,” considering he nearly doubled his career ISO, and jumped 70 points in wOBA from 2014. Here’s hoping Cozart’s short-lived mission to “crush the inside part of the ball” pays dividends in 2016!
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Below is the prospects installment of our 2016 Ottoneu FGpt rankings.

Previous Rankings: Catcher/First Base/Third Base/Second Base/Shortstop/Outfield/Relief Pitcher/Starting Pitcher

In Ottoneu, the prospect game is a bit different than in other fantasy leagues.  Ottoneu is not quite a dynasty, where you can stash players forever. But it’s a bit deeper than your average keeper league, and you can reap substantial benefit over a few years if you can score a hit on a top prospect. The rankings below reflect this dynamic – each of us has ranked our top 50 prospects according to a combination of his talent, proximity to MLB, and risk. As with our positional rankings, we’ve included each of our individual rankings, and a composite ranking that represents the average value we place on each player. Unlike our positional ranks, though, we’ve simply ranked our prospects from 1-50. It’s up to you (and your league’s market!) to determine how much of your budget you want to invest in prospects, depending on your team’s situation.

Only players who received a ranking from at least one of the four of us were included. “NR” indicates that the player was not ranked in one of our individual top 50 prospect lists. Consider this your early, subject to change, cheat sheet when you’re determining which prospects to target in your auction.

We can be reached on twitter as follows:

Trey Baughn
Joe Douglas
Tom Oltarzewski
Justin Vibber

Key:
AVG. – The average of our four rankings (for the purposes of this exercise “NR” was calculated as a ranking of 55)
Split – Difference from highest rank to lowest rank

2016 Ottoneu FGpts Rankings – Prospects

Name	Team	Pos	Justin	Joe	Tom	Trey	AVG.	Split
Corey Seager	Dodgers	SS	1	1	1	1	1	0
Lucas Giolito	Nationals	SP	3	5	2	2	3	3
J.P. Crawford	Phillies	SS	2	4	4	3	3.25	2
Nomar Mazara	Rangers	OF	8	2	3	5	4.5	6
Byron Buxton	Twins	OF	5	10	6	4	6.25	6
Julio Urias	Dodgers	SP	4	6	8	8	6.5	4
Steven Matz	Mets	SP	15	3	7	6	7.75	12
Tyler Glasnow	Pirates	SP	6	9	14	11	10	8
A.J. Reed	Astros	1B	14	8	10	9	10.25	6
Joey Gallo	Rangers	OF	18	13	5	7	10.75	13
Yoan Moncada	Red Sox	2B	10	19	9	10	12	10
Jose Berrios	Twins	SP	11	11	17	13	13	6
Alex Reyes	Cardinals	SP	9	17	18	12	14	9
Orlando Arcia	Brewers	SS	7	12	28	15	15.5	21
Trea Turner	Nationals	SS	13	14	13	23	15.75	10
Lewis Brinson	Rangers	OF	20	15	16	16	16.75	5
Dansby Swanson	Braves	SS	12	23	23	17	18.75	11
Blake Snell	Rays	SP	23	7	33	14	19.25	26
Jose De Leon	Dodgers	SP	29	16	21	20	21.5	13
Brendan Rodgers	Rockies	SS	25	34	12	19	22.5	22
Rafael Devers	Red Sox	3B	17	26	27	22	23	10
Andrew Benintendi	Red Sox	OF	24	27	24	18	23.25	9
Bradley Zimmer	Indians	OF	35	20	19	21	23.75	16
Franklin Barreto	Athletics	SS	19	25	20	33	24.25	14
Nick Williams	Phillies	OF	33	28	11	26	24.5	22
Austin Meadows	Pirates	OF	27	21	29	25	25.5	8
Brett Phillips	Brewers	OF	28	22	22	34	26.5	12
Manuel Margot	Padres	OF	16	24	32	39	27.75	23
Alex Bregman	Astros	SS	21	32	34	28	28.75	13
Aaron Judge	Yankees	OF	45	31	15	27	29.5	30
Jesse Winker	Reds	OF	31	29	31	29	30	2
Trevor Story	Rockies	SS	NR	18	26	24	30.75	8
Sean Manaea	Athletics	SP	38	30	30	31	32.25	8
Max Kepler	Twins	OF	36	33	35	30	33.5	6
David Dahl	Rockies	OF	34	39	25	40	34.5	15
Gary Sanchez	Yankees	C	41	35	36	35	36.75	6
Josh Bell	Pirates	1B	48	37	37	32	38.5	16
Tim Anderson	White Sox	SS	22	49	38	47	39	27
Sean Newcomb	Braves	SP	30	44	42	41	39.25	14
Clint Frazier	Indians	OF	44	42	40	43	42.25	4
Ozhaino Albies	Braves	SS	26	38	NR	NR	43.5	12
Ryan Mcmahon	Rockies	3B	43	45	43	45	44	2
Victor Robles	Nationals	OF	50	40	39	49	44.5	11
Gleyber Torres	Cubs	SS	32	46	NR	46	44.75	14
Alex Verdugo	Dodgers	OF	42	36	48	NR	45.25	12
Robert Stephenson	Reds	SP	46	NR	45	36	45.5	10
Hunter Renfroe	Padres	OF	NR	NR	44	38	48	6
Jose Peraza	Reds	2B	37	47	NR	NR	48.5	10
Dylan Bundy	Orioles	SP	NR	43	41	NR	48.5	2
Jorge Mateo	Yankees	SS	40	NR	47	NR	49.25	7
Jonathan Gray	Rockies	SP	47	NR	NR	42	49.75	5
Brandon Drury	Diamondbacks	2B/3B	NR	NR	46	44	50	2
Cody Reed	Reds	SP	NR	NR	NR	37	50.5	0
Javier Guerra	Padres	SS	39	NR	NR	NR	51	0
Anthony Alford	Blue Jays	OF	NR	41	NR	NR	51.5	0
Francis Martes	Astros	SP	NR	50	NR	48	52	2
Anderson Espinoza	Red Sox	SP	NR	48	NR	NR	53.25	0
Jeff Hoffman	Rockies	SP	49	NR	NR	NR	53.5	0
Willy Adames	Rays	SS	NR	NR	49	NR	53.5	0
Carson Fulmer	White Sox	SP	NR	NR	50	NR	53.75	0
Dillon Tate	Rangers	RP	NR	NR	NR	50	53.75	0