A couple of weeks ago, I listed and discussed the average fly ball distance (AFBD) surgers and decliners. As a reminder, AFBD is one of the main components of my xHR/FB rate equation. Today, let’s review some of the surprising AFBD leaders. We’ll define surprise as hitters we didn’t predict to appear anywhere near the top tier in the rankings. I’ll only call out fantasy relevant names.
Though we’ve known about it for a week now, Josh Donaldson has officially signed with the Twins, which pushes Miguel Sano to first base. Donaldson now joins his fourth team in three years, which is surprising given how good he has been, outside a down, injury-marred 2018. Speaking of 2018, he rebounded off that disappointing performance admirably, proving it was health, not age, that was the issue. He now returns to the American League after a year in Atlanta. What might the change in home park do to his results? Let’s consult the (2018) park factors.
Wow, in a surprise twist, free agent Marcell Ozuna settled for a one-year deal with the Braves. He now joins the third team of his career as he enters his age 29 season. So how might his offense be affected by the move from Busch Stadium (Cardinals) to Truist Park (Braves)? Well first, he has to tell his friends and family that he’ll be playing his home games at a stadium called Truist Park without laughing. That has to be the worst stadium name in all of sports right now. Outside of that challenge, let’s see what the park factors say (well, at least the 2018 ones!).
Yesterday, I identified and discussed a smattering of hitters who made surprising appearances near the top of the barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) leaderboard. Today, we flip to the opposite end of the list, moving to the laggards. These are going to be fantasy relevant guys you never expected to appear closer to the bottom of the leaderboard than the top.
Last week, I listed and discussed the barrels per true fly ball (Brls/TFB) surgers and decliners. As a reminder, Brls/TFB is one of the main components of my xHR/FB rate equation. Today, let’s review some of the surprising Brls/TFB leaders. We’ll define surprise as hitters we didn’t predict to appear anywhere near the top tier in the rankings. I’ll only call out fantasy relevant names.
Yesterday, I discussed surgers in the final important component of my xHR/FB rate equation, FB Pull%. Today, I’ll move on to the decliners. What follows is a list of the hitters whose FB Pull% declined by at least 10 percentage points from 2018.
The last major component of my xHR/FB rate equation is fly ball pull percentage (FB Pull%). Since hitters generally can generate more power to their pull side and distance along the lines are always shorter than toward center, a higher pulled fly ball rate is almost always better for HR/FB rate. Pulled fly ball rate is a skill, as I calculated soon after revealing my xHR/FB equation, so a change is worth noting. That said, as usual, regression toward individual averages are always inevitable, so typically the batter enjoying a spike or enduring a decline reverses courses and moves back toward their average the following year. Remember that when reading this list and commentary.
Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters who had increased their average fly ball distance (AFBD) by at least 20 feet from 2018 to 2019. Today, I’ll take on the decliners, but expand the group to those that lost at least 15 feet (it’s no surprise given the leaguewide HR/FB rate surge that there are more surgers than decliners). Like I did with the surger list, I’ll only discuss those who did not appear on the barrels per true fly ball decliner list, as there’s overlap. Actually, now that I see the list of overlaps, there’s very little, with the only notable name being Luke Voit on both lists.
On Monday, I discussed the surgers in one of the components of my xHR/FB rate equation, barrels per true fly ball. Today, we’ll hop over to another important component of the equation, average fly ball distance (AFBD, because I’m lazy). While you might expect the two lists to include similar names, 11 of the 31 names did not increase their Brl/TFB rate by at least 10%. So yes, that means the majority do appear on both lists, but probably less a majority you would think. So it’s worth consulting each group separately. This list includes all hitters with at least 30 fly balls in both 2018 and 2019 and increased their AFBD marks by at least 20 feet. I won’t discuss guys already discussed from Monday’s list.
Yesterday, I listed and discussed the hitters who at increased their barrels per true fly ball (Brl/TFB) rates by at least 10% over 2018. Today, I’ll discuss the opposite end of the spectrum, those whose Brl/TFB rates fell at least 10% from 2018.
