One of the most enjoyable things I’ve been doing over the last couple of years is creating imaginary NFBC teams based on their average auction values (AAV). It’s a fun way to identify potentially undervalued players since I’m using actual market values and not just speculating. Today, let’s review my $14 NFBC offense, which is comprised of, you guessed it, only players with an AAV of $1.
In early February, I compared 2024 actual wOBA to xwOBA to identify players who might be in for a wOBA surge or decline in 2025, based on the gap between to the two metrics. Let’s now review these lists to find out how the players actually performed. Did the potential surgers actually surge and did the decliners actually suffer declines?
This year, a new projection system called OOPSY by Jordan Rosenblum joined our preseason forecasts. I decided to put it to the test by comparing its wOBA projections to those of our Depth Charts to identify the hitters it was most bullish and bearish on. With the final numbers now in the books, let’s see which system more accurately forecasted these players’ wOBA marks.
Last week, I reviewed my preseason top 40 first base rankings. There were some glaring omissions from that post for two reasons. First, there are always going to be hitters who gain eligibility at a new position that won’t be ranked there during the preseason. Second, there are usually going to be some surprise names off most radars who end up in the top 40, but failed to be ranked there. So today, let’s discuss the 12 hitters who finished among the top 40 first basemen, but were unranked.
Preseason article review season continues! Today, let’s look back on a 2025 preview post where I identified potential HR/FB rate surgers and decliners. While I used to use my own xHR/FB rate equation when I projected a player’s HR/FB rate for the upcoming season, I decided to simplify things for this exercise. Instead, I used a metric I came up with called Barrels/(FB+LD) to help me come up with a list of names on both ends of the spectrum. So with the background out of the way, let’s review how these hitters ended up performing.
During the preseason, us Rotographers focused on a position and shared tiers and rankings, updated weekly through the beginning of the season. I was tasked with first basemen, ranking 40 names and publishing the last update on March 24. Let’s now review those preseason rankings and where those players actually ended up ranking, along with their end of season dollar value earned.
I was excited about my AL-Only Tout Wars team this year on my quest to defense my 2024 championship, as I filled it with a ton of offense and a plethora of young potential pitching breakouts. This is how I usually do things, and sometimes it works out, while other times it doesn’t. This was one of the seasons where so much went wrong, but enough went right that I seemingly managed to finish far better than expected given my auction.
Now that the 2025 regular season is in the books, it’s time to review my preseason posts! Let’s start with the fan favorite, the 2025 Bold Predictions. This is always a fun one to put together and every time there’s a breakout I feel like I should have seen coming, I always feel regret if that player failed to make it into this article. Let’s see who did make it, because I surely don’t remember!
During the All-Star break, I polled you fine readers about hitters and your expectations in the second half. Specifically, the poll pitted the 10 greatest xwOBA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a higher second half wOBA and which range each group’s wOBA would fall into. Let’s now review what happened.
During the All-Star break, I polled you fine readers about starting pitchers and your expectations in the second half. Specifically, the poll pitted the 10 greatest SIERA overperformers against the 10 most significant underperformers. I asked you which group would post a lower second half ERA and which range each group’s ERA would fall into. Let’s now review what happened.
