Yesterday, I shared and discussed the top 10 hitters in Statcast’s HardHit%, a metric now available right here on FanGraphs. Once again, a breakdown of HardHit% (HH%) by batted ball type would be ideal, so this is not a complete analysis. But an overall HH% tells us most of what we want to know, even if it could deceive here and there. So let’s check in on the bottom group in HH%. I want to highlight the surprises, the hitters you would expect to rank much better, and will ignore the guys we expect to be near the bottom.

Read the rest of this entry »

Statcast metrics have arrived! So let’s dive right in, starting with the HardHit% (HH%) leaders. As per Statcast, a batter’s hard hit rate is the percentage of batted balls that were hit at 95 MPH or more. While this data would be even more useful if broken up by batted ball type (we care far more about hard hit fly balls than hard hit pop-ups or grounders), the metric still gets us most of the way there. So let’s check out the top 10 leaders and see if we find any surprises.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I identified and discussed the starting pitcher leaders in Z-Contact%, which is in-zone contact rate. Today, let’s look at the laggards in the metric. I’ll stick with the pitchers who have posted a rate of at least 90%.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s up for debate which one metric best describes a pitcher’s level of dominance. One of those metrics that doesn’t get as much press is Z-Contact%, which is defined as “percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone”. In fewer words, it’s simply in-zone contact rate. Since all else being equal, a pitch thrown inside the strike zone is easier to make contact with then pitches thrown outside the zone, then one measure of absolute dominance is how often a pitcher generates a swing and miss on pitches thrown inside the zone. If a pitcher’s strikes can’t be hit, how are batters going to hit their balls (unintentional comedy scale: 10/10)?! So let’s look at and discuss the early starting pitcher Z-Contact% leaders. All these pitchers have posted marks below 80% versus a league average of 84.6%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I identified and discussed the hitters who have increased their FB% by at least 10% compared to last season. That’s a good thing for the hitters’ home run potential, assuming all their other metrics remain stable. Today, we’ll look at the decliners, those hitters whose FB% marks have fallen the most versus last season. While this might raise their BABIP expectations, it’s bad news for their home run potential, unless their FB% reverts back to previous levels.

Read the rest of this entry »

Besides earning more playing time, there are only three skills-based methods to hitting more home runs — striking out less frequently, which means more balls put into play, hitting more fly balls, which means more chances for a batted ball to jump over the wall, and hitting a higher rate of those fly balls over the wall, which is represented by HR/FB rate. Of the three, the middle skill of hitting more fly balls is possibly the ideal skill you want to see from your early season home run surge. That’s because batted ball type distribution is more of an approach or decision by the hitter rather than an actual improvement in talent. We need a much larger sample to determine if talent has changed, but a hitter could seemingly wake up one day and decide he wants to uppercut the ball more in an effort to hit for more power. You can’t decide to strike out less or hit more fly balls over the well, though I’m sure all hitters wish they could!

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I discussed a whole bunch of hitting metrics and who currently leads and lags the league. Things be crazy this early in a season. I didn’t quite finish diving into all the metrics I wanted to, so today I’ll check in on the batted ball type related metrics. Let’s see who is part of the weird and wonderful today.

Read the rest of this entry »

What I love about the first couple of weeks in the baseball season is all the crazy rates players are posting. In small samples, the variance in all metrics is much wider than in a larger sample. Obviously, the larger the sample, the more a player’s performance will revert toward his true talent level. In only around 10 games, anything goes! So for fun, let’s take a gander at some of the weird and wonderful rates that have been posted by hitters so far.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I listed and discussed a selection of hitters who have gained the most flyball/line drive exit velocity this year versus last. Today, I’ll list and discuss the hitters on the flip side — those that have lost the most EV. What follows is a list of hitters who have lost at least six miles per hour of FB/LD EV. Small sample caveats apply.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s still super early, with only some teams playing as many as 10 games. And yet, those 10 games already represent 16.7% of the season! CRAZY. So yes, it’s still super early to evaluate most performances, but by the time we have enough of a sample to make better judgments, the season will have ended. So like I discussed last week with pitcher fastball velocity, let’s look at another underlying skill metric that stabilizes more quickly than a results-based metric — exit velocity. I like barrels more, but with the tiny samples so far, one more or less barrel will make a significant difference in barrel rate, so it’s simply too soon. So we’ll stick with average fly ball/line drive exit velocity, as it’s pretty straightforward — all else being equal, the faster the bat meets the ball, the further the ball will travel.

Read the rest of this entry »